Modeling Rather Than Muddling Through Brian Deal Varkki

Modeling Rather Than Muddling Through Brian Deal Varkki Pallathucheril Wayne Hartel LEAM Laboratory University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

What is Modeling? § Describing how systems behave § Describe different system components § Describe different mechanisms that cause change § Descriptions can be mathematical expressions § Graphic representations are easier to understand manipulate § Walking across the street is a modeling exercise § Building a cognitive model of safety

Overview § § Why model? What is modeling? An example Next steps

Why Model? § Complex systems behave in unexpected (emergent) ways § Caused by feedbacks and lags § Caused by uncertainty § Understanding systems requires knowing § How systems behave “normally” § A range of other systems behaviors § What-if scenarios

Why Model? § The model building process is as important as the end result § Provides a common frame of reference § Helps groups develop a shared understanding § Helps create institutional memory

Gateway Blueprint Model § Investment in modeling by East-West Gateway Council of Governments § Some questions § What are different ways in which the region might grow in the future? § What will their impact be on transportation? § How will investment in roads and mass transit affect growth?

Overview § § Why model? How do we model? An example Next steps

How Do We Model? § Basic steps § Define the problem and objectives § Identify performance measures § Review model analogs § Analogies from known systems § Identify states, flows, controls, parameters, constraints § Develop a minimal model § Useful models need not be complicated § Simple component behavior linked in complex ways can produce complex outcomes

Fish Population Modeling Exercise

How Do We Model? § Model elaboration § Calibrate, validate and revise minimal model § Identify impacts of feedbacks, lags, and uncertainty on performance measures (sensitivity analysis) § Extend the model § Answer deeper questions or pursue different objectives

Overview § § Why model? How do we model? An example Next steps

“More For Our Money” Race Issues Education issues Regional Economic Development Public Investment Housing Issues Economic Issues

Wealth and Public Investment

Overview § § Why model? How do we model? An example Next steps

Next Steps § § § Establish local working group Evaluate and refine preliminary model Identify data available for model Articulate insights from model Integrate with Gateway Blueprint Model Formulate public policy and make strategic choices