Model based Impact assessment EIA SEA SIA implemented

Model based Impact assessment: EIA, SEA, SIA, implemented using models + rule-based expert systems (AI) artificial intelligence technology to support users in the evaluation by logical inference + simulation. 1

Model based Impact assessment: EIAxpert was originally developed for the MEKONG Secretariat, then in Bangkok, Thailand, with more than 200 development projects planned. Scoping, screening, ranking. 2

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Model based Impact assessment: Basic methodology: an “intelligent” Leopold matrix; Individual “problems” are evaluated with production RULES: IF [condition 1] AND/OR [condition 2] THEN ACTION 6

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Land use dynamics: Long-term (of 10 -30 years) simulations of land use/land cover with transition probabilities and Rules • Landuse defines water demand • Landuse affects runoff properties Dynamic Driving Forces: demography, migration, economy, technology, policy, regulations, climate change ….

Land use dynamics: LUC: test case: 100 time steps (50 years) Urban/regional Development: Al Gharbia, UAE

WELMM analysis: W E L M M water energy land manpower materials Dynamic analysis of land use change impacts e. g. , runoff, water demand 10

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Land use dynamics 13

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Coastal Water quality: Wastewater discharge from a coastal fertilizer plant (Lebanon) Simulated over tidal cycles RAW 16

Coastal Water quality: Discharge into the harbour from an RO Desalination Plant: HFZ, Dubai; BASELINE 17

Coastal Water quality: Discharge into the harbour from an RO Desalination Plant: HFZ, Dubai; BASELINE x 2 18

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