Mlkevejen og Jordens klima Henrik Svensmark Dansk Rumforskningsinstitut

Mælkevejen og Jordens klima Henrik Svensmark, Dansk Rumforskningsinstitut Email hsv@dsri. dk Københavns Universitet, 2002

Satellite Failures due to Space Weather Effects • Anomalies due to spacecraft surface and internal charging (Marecs, ECS, Meteosat, TELE-X, …. . ) • Latch-up induced failures (ESR-1, PRARE, Equator-S, …. . ) • SEU’s in linear circuits…(Anik 1 &2) • Solar Array problems/degradation (Tempo, Pan. Am, ECS, …. ) More recent satellite failures: • Telestar 401 – • TV links etc. . Galaxy IV – silenced 80% of pagers in North America More than 12 satellites lost due to Space Weather Effects Last 4 years space losses may have exceeded $500 million Commercial interests often do not allow anomaly reporting.

Damage to transformers Damage to a transformer at a power plant Delaware, New Jersey Price: 10 mill USD Repair can take up to 1 year. In this particular case they were lucky to find a used one from a shut down plant. Took only 6 weeks to restore Sweden: simultaneous power loss in six 130 k. V power distribution lines Chicago: Five transformers in the Chicago area failed due to elevated geomagnetic activity

New Particle formation: Observations and Theory • Observed nucleation rates are much larger than predicted by classical binary (H 2 SO 4+H 2 O) nucleation theory • The functional dependence of the observed nucleation rate of [H 2 SO 4] is much weaker (~ [H 2 SO 4]2 )than predicted by classical binary (H 2 SO 4+H 2 O) nucleation theory (~ [H 2 SO 4]10 ) • Measured growth rates of freshly formed nanoparticles are about a factor of 10 higher than can be explained by H 2 SO 4 and its associated H 2 O and NH 3

Micro-physics: Why in the lower part of the atmosphere? t: Time to grow from rc to r* DG ri T (sek) 400 300 200 100 0 rc r r* t ~ 200 sek for [H 2 SO 4] = 2. 5 107 pr cc 0 5 10 Ion-pair/cc/sek

Experimental evidence of enhanced aerosol formation caused by ionisation Natural level of ionisation Artificial air N 2: O 2 = 4: 1 SO 2 = 300 ppb C 2 H 4 = 100 ppb O 3 = 160 ppb Vohra et al. , Atmos. Environment, 18, 1653 (1984)

Cosmic ray variations ionisation and aerosol formation Based on Numerical studies by Yu, 2001

CLOUD experimenet ved CERN

Solaktivitet og Klima Kulstof-14 fra træ-ringe

IR Cloud properties and Cosmic rays Cosmic Ray - Low Cloud Top Temperature Correlation only found in low clouds Marsh and Svensmark, PRL 2000

Little Ice age (~ 1300 -1800) Documented in Europe Greenland Sargasso Sea Peru East Africa Japan Caribbean Sea West Africa Taiwan and China South Africa USA Argentina

Ice-ages and spiral arms Cosmic ray flux is larger in spiral arms One revolution take about 240 Mill years Spiral arm crossings every 140 Mill years

Ice-ages and spiral arms Nir Shaviv, PRL 2002