MJJ rainfall CPT probabilistic MJJ rainfall forecast CCA

MJJ rainfall

CPT probabilistic MJJ rainfall forecast CCA experiments: 1) Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Dec (data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the. IRI data library) 2) Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over MJJ (data source: NOAA CPCFSv 2, Dec(initialisation)

Experiment 1

CPT MJJ rainfall forecast Data: Predictor = Dec. SST observations 1952 -2014 Dec 140 E-20 W and 30 N-20 S (i. e. tropical Pacific & Atlantic) [Source: ERSSTv 3 b, from IRI data library] Predictand = MJJ rainfall for 423 Caribbean stations 1979 -2014 Parameters: CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 5 X modes: max = 8; optimum = 8 Y modes: max = 8; optimum = 8 Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 236 stations included in hindcast and forecast Goodness index (transformed Y) = 0. 102 ! Limited !

ROC area maps

CCA modes

Experiment 1 MJJ Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps NORMAL BELOW ABOVE

Experiment 2

CPT MJJ rainfall forecast Data: Predictor = MJJ simulated SST 1952 -2014 140 E-20 W and 30 N-20 S (i. e. tropical Pacific & Atlantic) [Source: NOAA CPC – CFSv 2, Dec initialisation] Predictand = MJJ rainfall for 423 Caribbean stations 1979 -2014 Parameters: CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 1 X modes: max = 8; optimum = 2 Y modes: max = 8; optimum = 1 Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 390 stations included in hindcast and forecast Goodness index (transformed Y) = 0. 094 !! Very Limited !!

ROC area maps

CCA modes

Experiment 2 MJJ Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps NORMAL BELOW ABOVE