Ministry of Food Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute

Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute for Fisheries Research ICES CM 2003/V: 07 An EXCEL-based software toolbox for stochastic fleetbased forecast. Per Sparre Danish Institute for Fisheries Research. Department of Marine Fisheries.

Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute for Fisheries Research ICES CM 2003/V: 07 An EXCEL-based software toolbox for stochastic fleet-based forecast. Toolbox of Visual Basic routines EXCEL user-interface Mixed fisheries and assessment of the effect of management Deterministic and stochastic simulation. User-friendly software, Stand-alone ordinary ECEL-workbook Open source Visual Basic sub-routines, Can be inspected and modified by the user. The highest degree of transparency of code Comprehensive on-line help-facility and user’s manual.

Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute for Fisheries Research COMPONENTS OF THE TOOL-BOX (TEMAS *) a) ICES Prediction model (Basic model) combined with: b) A simple micro-economic model c) A model of fisher’s behaviour *) TEMAS Project: Technical Measures – Development of evaluation model and application in Danish fisheries.

Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute for Fisheries Research

Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute for Fisheries Research Multi species Multi Fleet Multi Area

Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute for Fisheries Research

Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute for Fisheries Research

Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute for Fisheries Research

Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute for Fisheries Research

Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute for Fisheries Research Note: This is not a commercial for Microsoft Office. (EXCEL has bugs by the thousands, and behave strangely! - but everybody has it)

Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute for Fisheries Research

Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries VISUAL BASIC Danish Institute for Fisheries Research OPEN SOURCE – USER FRIENDLY CODE

Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute for Fisheries Research

Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute for Fisheries Research

Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute for Fisheries Research Capacity Rules

Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute for Fisheries Research SURVEY OF BEHAVIOUR RULES IN TEMAS 1 Reaction to technical management measures 2 Reaction to non-technical management measures 3 Reaction to costs and prices. 4 Reaction to the range and equipment of vessels. 5 Reaction to availability of resources Trip-Related Behaviour short term Structure-Related Behaviour long term Reaction of fisheries advisers (ICES).

Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute for Fisheries Research Example of behaviour rule: Where to fish ? CHOICE COMPOSED OF TRADITION and CURRENT SITUATION General behaviour model: Random Utility Model Estimation procedure: General Logit model.

Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute for Fisheries Research E. g. quota management and effort management (Ulrich et al. 2002)

Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute for Fisheries Research

Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute for Fisheries Research

Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Institute for Fisheries Research THE END