Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry Turkish State Meteorological

Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry Turkish State Meteorological Service Real Time Week 1/2 Forecast for Turkey Sunum yapacak kişinin ismi ve çalıştığı başkanlık/müdürlük yazılmalı Serhat ŞENSOY, Yüksel Özalp, Mesut Demircan, Osman Eskioğlu, Cansu Öztürk, Başak Yazıcı, Kahraman Oğuz, Yezdan Yılmaz Ankara - 2019 1/46

Content 200 hpa Divergence and wind anomaly Sunu Planı Hazırlanmalı 700 hpa Divergence and wind anomaly 850 hpa Divergence and wind anomaly Precipitation Anomaly Exceedance probability P>25 mm Exceedance probability P>50 mm T 2 m Anomaly 2/46

200 hpa divergence and wind anomaly In the 1 st week forecast show negative convergence anomaly in southwestern part of Turkey, while divergence anomaly in the northeastern part. 2 nd week there is convergence in the eastern part. 3/46

700 hpa divergence and wind anomaly In the 1 st week forecast show negative convergence anomaly in northeastern and inland part of Turkey, while divergence anomaly in the southeastern part. 2 nd week there is convergence in the northeastern part. 4/46

850 hpa divergence and wind anomaly In the 1 st week forecast show negative convergence anomaly in northeastern part of Turkey, while divergence anomaly in the southeastern part. 2 nd week there is convergence in the northeastern part. It means low pressure center and 5/46 rainy condition.

Precipitation Anomaly In the 1 st week forecast show negative precipitation anomaly in western part but positive anomaly in southeastern part while 2 nd week only there is weak precipitation is expecting in the eastern part of the country. 6/46

Exceedance probability P>25 mm In the 1 st week forecast show heavy precipitation (>25 mm) in eastern part of the country with the probability of 80 -90%. 2 nd week again there will be heavy precipitation in northeastern part and around Van lake 7/46

Exceedance probability P>50 mm In the 1 st week forecast show heavy precipitation (>50 mm) in the around the city Rize and Siirt with probability of 80 -90%. 2 nd week again there will be heavy precipitation in north-eastern and south-eastern part but with the weak probability 8/46 (40 -50%).

T 2 m Anomaly In the 1 st week forecast show anomalies up to -5 degrees in the eastern part while 2 nd week starting warming from the western part of the country but still there is below normal temperature will be prevailing in eastern part. 9/46

TSMS Weekly Forecast Our 1 st week forecast shows that air temperature will be below normal and rainy condition will continue especially north and east part of the country 10/46

Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry Turkish State Meteorological Service Reference Data Source: ftp: //ftp. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/international/11 ITWCVP_ Ankara 2019/Endalk/subseason_with_grads. tar. gz Thanks for your attention Turkish participants 11/46