Middle East Conflict Middle East Arab Muslim Oilproducing

Middle East Conflict

Middle East = Arab, Muslim, Oil-producing? n Middle East includes non-Arab states [Iran, Israel] and is also ethnically diverse [Kurds, Assyrians, Armenians, Turcomans] n Middle East is religiously diverse [Islam, Judaism, Christianity] n Sunni vs. Shia n Not all Middle Eastern countries have oil • OIL: S. A. , Iraq, U. A. E. , Kuwait, Iran, Syria • No OIL: Israel, Egypt, Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon • 30% of the world’s oil production from M. E.

Middle East - 5 Key Themes n Old Civilizations, New States n Cultural Heterogeneity n Institutional Weaknesses n External Influences n Role of Religion – Extremism, Fundamentalism?

http: //www. mideastweb. org/maps. htm

Sources of conflict since 1945 n Ethnic and religious conflict within the region n Palestinian / Israeli conflict n Western influence and intervention n Secularism vs. religious fundamentalism often a reaction against modernity and Western influence

The Middle East and the West n n End of the Ottoman Empire of Turkey Republic After WWI: mandate system in Gulf States: • Britain Palestine, Iraq, Transjordan • France Syria, Lebanon n n “Independent” by end of WWII but Western oil interests remained Cold War and competition for oil meant Middle East remained an area of Western intervention and influence

Sources of anti-U. S. sentiment n n n History: betrayal of Woodrow Wilson’s ideal of “self-determination” U. S. actions during the Cold War Growing U. S. presence in 1970 s: bases in Gulf States U. S. support for Israel; supporting dictatorships in Arab states “Cultural imperialism”

Palestinian – Israeli Conflict n n Originated after WWI Promise of independence to Middle East after WWI was broken; instead Palestine and other territories became “mandates”

Two Different Narratives n n n Religious Historical Political Economic/Cultural Identity Moral

Promises to the Arabs— Mc. Mahon Correspondence n 1. Subject to the above modifications, Great Britain is prepared to recognize and support the independence of the Arabs in all the regions within the limits demanded by the Sherif of Mecca. 2. Great Britain will guarantee the Holy Places against all external aggression and will recognise their inviolability. 3. When the situation admits, Great Britain will give to the Arabs her advice and will assist them to establish what may appear to be the most suitable forms of government in those various territories.

King-Crane Commission, 1919 “a national home for the Jewish people is not equivalent to making Palestine into a Jewish state” “nor can the erection of such a Jewish state be accomplished without the gravest trespass upon the civil and religious rights of existing non-Jewish communities in Palestine” “the fact came out repeatedly in the Commission’s conference with Jewish representatives that the Zionists looked forward to a practically complete dispossession of the present non-Jewish inhabitants of Palestine” “the initial claim, often submitted by Zionist representatives, that they have a ‘right’ to Palestine, based on an occupation of two thousand years ago, can hardly be seriously considered”

Balfour’s Response: “in Palestine we do not propose even to go through the form of consulting the wishes of the present inhabitants of the country, though the American Commission has been going through the form of asking what they are. The four great powers are committed to Zionism, and Zionism, be it right or wrong, good or bad, is rooted in age-long tradition, in present needs, in future hopes, of far profounder import than the desires and prejudices of the 700, 000 Arabs who now inhabit that ancient land. ”

The Balfour Declaration, 1917 Expressing support for “the establishment in Palestine of a national home for the Jewish people…it being clearly understood that nothing shall be done which may prejudice the civil and religious rights of existing non-Jewish communities in Palestine…”

Jewish migration to Palestine n n n Began in the 1920 s 1920: 95% Palestinian; 5% Jewish [29, 000] 1947: 68% Palestinian; 32% Jewish [630, 000] Jewish population after the creation of Israel: • 1948: 0. 8 million • 1964: 2. 4 million • Now: approximately 6. 4 million • Latest population influx after the disintegration of USSR 1939 British suspends ALL immigration to Palestine

United Nations Partition Plan, 1947 Tan: Jewish state Grey: Arab state White: International zone

Holy City of Jerusalem The Western Wall Dome of the Rock Church of the Holy Sepulcher

Armed conflicts over Israel n 1948 -49: War after creation of Israel n 1967: The “Six-Day War” initiated by Israel • Preemptive war to create protective buffer around Israel • Tripled Israeli territory in six days • Placed 1. 5 million Palestinians under Israeli rule n 1973: “Yom Kippur War” • Egypt and Syria attack unsuccessfully in Sinai and Golan Heights

Before 1967 After 1967

“Occupied” / “Disputed” Territories n n n After 1967, the focus of the Palestinian. Israeli conflict shifted from recognition of Israel to status of the “occupied” or “disputed” territories Sinai Peninsula was returned to Egypt 1982 Jewish settlers left the Gaza Strip summer 2005

The Palestinian Liberation Organization [PLO] n Created in 1964 as a government in exile n Leader: Yasir Arafat [d. 2004] n n n 1974: PLO recognized by the U. N. as representative of the Palestinian people 1987 and 2000 used strategy of intifada [uprising] to oppose Israeli rule Became Palestinian Authority 1993; current leader Mahmoud Abbas

Where are the Palestinians? The largest group of refugees in the world today. Israel: 1 million Jordan: 1. 5 million Gaza: 825, 000 West Bank: 583, 000 Saudi Arabia: 123, 000 Iraq: 90, 000 Syria: 383, 200 Lebanon: 376, 500 Egypt: 40, 000 N. Africa: 13, 000 Kuwait: 35, 000 80% left in 1948. 44% of Jordan’s population are displaced and refugee Palestinians Israel rejects the “right of return” for refugees.

Pursuing Peace n U. N. Resolution 242 (1967) • Called for withdrawal of Israeli forces from territories occupied in 1967 • Called for Israel, Egypt, Syria, and Jordan to recognize one another n Separate peace agreements between Israel and Egypt (1978) and Israel and Jordan (1994) n Oslo Agreement (1993) “Land for Peace” • Palestinians abandon armed struggle and accept Israel’s right to rule over 78% of mandate Palestine • In return they receive the remaining 22% (West Bank, Gaza, Arab East Jerusalem) n George W. Bush: 2002 “two-state solution”

Continuing Conflict n n Hamas, Hezbollah, and other extremist groups reject right of Israel to exist and reject all negotiations with Israel Violent acts on both sides invite violent reprisals, continuing the cycle of violence Wall and Jewish settlement in West Bank Gaza: Palestinian state or “prison? ”

Lebanon n Until civil war [1975 -90] Lebanon was the “Switzerland of the Middle East” n 1976 -2005 Syrian forces Lebanon n 1978 -2000 Israeli forces S. Lebanon • Hezbollah forms against Israel n Summer 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel Until 1975, Beirut was considered the “Paris of the Middle East”

The cornerstone of peace in Iraq? “The United States will not be able to achieve its goals in the Middle East unless [it] deals directly with the Arab-Israeli conflict. ” RECOMMENDATION 13: There must be a renewed and sustained commitment by the United States to a comprehensive Arab-Israeli peace on all fronts: Lebanon and Syria, and President Bush’s June 2002 commitment to a two-state solution for Israel and Palestine. The Iraq Study Group Report

Final Status Issues n n Jerusalem – who should control it? Israeli security – right of Israel to exist. n Palestinian refugees – right of return n Borders – how to determine? • “LAND FOR PEACE”

Egypt-Nasser, Sadat, Mubarak – Arab Socialism and Pan-Arabism Iraq - Hussein-Baathist Socialism Syria – Asad – Baathist Socialism Libya – Qadafi – Green Socialism Turkey - Secular Republic Iran – Shah, Khomeini, Ahmadinejad –Islamism Saudi Arabia – “Family w/ Flags”, Wahabi Islam http: //www. mideastweb. org/maps. htm

Cold War competition in the Middle East n n n USSR supported Egypt, Syria, Iraq U. S. supported Israel, Iran, Saudi Arabia Switches: • Egypt 1970 s • Iran 1979 Gamal Abdel Nassar nationalized the Suez Canal zone in 1956. This almost sparked a regional war and led to Egypt. USSR alliance

Afghanistan n n 1979 -89: USSR intervened in Afghanistan to support communist regime Mujahideen [Islamic warriors] organized against USSR Civil war continued after Soviet withdrawal 1996: Taliban proclaimed the Islamic State of Afghanistan Overthrown 2001 after 9/11 attacks

Osama bin Laden n From a wealthy Yemeni family in S. A. n Aided Afghans to defeat Soviet forces n n n Formed “al Qaeda” against U. S. influence in Middle East, particularly S. A. , heartland of Islam 1998 Attacks on U. S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania and 2000 on U. S. S. Cole 9/11 2001 attacks on World Trade Towers

Afghanistan now n n Government of Hamid Karzai attempting reforms Reemergence of regional warlords and Taliban Osama bin Laden still at large Opium production skyrocketing

Political Islam-Fundamentalism n“shadow side of modernity” – develops when modernization is well-established, so a reaction against it because: ndeep disappointment with modernity nfear of secularism, liberalism and its values npushing religion from the sidelines back to the center nbegins as an internal dispute within own culture/country Ex. opposing westernizing leaders or policies return to a “golden age” – overstressing traditional values Ex. putting women back into veils a reactive form of modernism, often innovative and radical tactics: n withdrawal from society n forming separate communities n fighting for survival n revival of faith n terrorism (minority)

It is easy to provoke this administration. All that we have to do is to send two mujahedeen to the farthest point east to raise a piece of cloth on which in written Al Qaeda, in order to make the generals race there to case America to suffer human, economic and political losses. And then Al Qaeda, no matter what losses it has suffered, will come off once again looking like the strong horse. ” Osama bin Laden, 2004

Iran n n 1940 s: Britain and USSR invaded to protect supply routes 1951: Mohammad Mossadeq, proponent of nationalizing oil, appointed Prime Minister 1953: Mossadeq overthrown by US and UK intelligence; installation of pro-Western Shah 1953 -79: Iran closely allied with the U. S. Iran was highly secularized and Westernized Shah Muhammad Reza Pahlavi

Iranian Revolution 1979 n n Revolution to overthrow the regime of the Shah Also a cultural revolution for “revolutionary Islam” 1979: Ayatollah Khomeini established Republic of Iran 2002 labeled by Pres. Bush part of “axis of 1979 -81: 55 Americans were held hostage

Iran now n n n Final victor in Iran. Iraq war? Nuclear ambitions? Broker of regional peace? President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad n Upset or balance power vis á vis Israel?

Iraq n 1918 -32 British rule • Even after independence Britain retained oil rights and kept military bases in Iraq n Monarchy military rule Ba’thists n 1979 Saddam Hussein took power n Saddam suppressed opposition also Kurdish minority

Iran-Iraq War 1980 -88 n War for regional domination and rights to the Shatt al-Arab waterway n 367, 000 died; 700, 000 wounded n U. S. supported both sides n Precipitated proliferation of U. S. bases in region— particularly in Saudi Arabia The Iran-Iraq war recalled WWI trench warfare on Iran-Iraq border

Gulf War n n n 1990 Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait 1991 put down by U. S. -led coalition Weapons inspections and economic sanctions begin

America’s “war on terror” n n n 9/11 attacks on World Trade Towers 1991: Northern Coalition topples Taliban in Afghanistan 2003 : Invasion of Iraq on charges of WMD and aiding and abetting terrorism

U. S. strategy: from deterrence to preemption “For much of the last century, America’s defense relied on the Cold War doctrines of deterrence and containment. In some cases, those strategies still apply. But new threats require new thinking. Deterrence—the promise of massive retaliation against nations—means nothing against shadowy terrorist networks with no nation or citizens to defend…. The war on terror cannot be won on the defensive. We must take the battle to the enemy, disrupt his plans, and confront the worst threats before they emerge. In the world we have entered, the only path to safety is the path of action. And this nation will act…” George W. Bush, 2002

“The longer you look at Iraq on the morning after Saddam, the more you see the truth of what many people told me: getting rid of him will be the easy part. After that, the US will find itself caught in a series of conundrums that will require supreme finesse: to liberate without appearing to dominate to ensure order without overstaying to security is interests without trampling on Iraq’s to oversee democratization without picking winners to push for reforms in the neighborhood without unleashing demons “Dreaming of Democracy” by George Packer NYTimes Magazine, 3/2/03

Iraq now n n U. S. forces have been in Iraq longer than they fought in World War II U. S. is currently spending approximately 2 billion dollars/week on Iraq; nearly 100 Americans are dying every month Over 3000 American forces have been killed. 1 in 16 American service personnel wounded Estimates vary for Iraqis: • • • 655, 000 [Lancet Survey] 50 -55, 000 [Iraq Body Count Project] 100 -150, 000 [Iraq Health Minister] n Sectarian violence between Sunni and Shia. n al Qaeda in Iraq.

Prognosis according to the Iraq Study Group Report “The situation in Iraq is grave and deteriorating. There is no path that can guarantee success, but the prospects can be improved…” This bipartisan study was published in December 2006.

KURDISH AREAS

Recommendations of the Iraq Study Group Report GOAL: an Iraq that can “govern itself, sustain itself, defend itself” Externally: n Build an international support structure both outside and within M. E. n Work with Iran and Syria to stabilize Iraq n Work to resolve Palestinian-Israeli conflict Internally: n Continue providing military, political, and economic support only if Iraqi government makes progress toward national reconciliation, security and governance n Restate that U. S. does not intend to establish permanent U. S. bases in Iraq; nor does it wish to control oil n U. S. must engage all parties except al Qaeda.

Options cited in the Iraq Study Group Report n n Quick withdrawal: “A premature American departure from Iraq would almost certainly produce greater sectarian violence and further deterioration of conditions…” Stay the course: “Current U. S. policy is not working, as the level of violence in Iraq is rising and the government is not advancing national reconciliation…” More troops: “…if the Iraqi government does not make political progress, ‘all the troops in the world will not provide security. ’” Devolution to three regions [Shia, Sunni, Kurdish]: “A rapid devolution could result in mass population movements, collapse of the Iraqi security forces, strengthening of militias, ethnic cleansing, destabilization of neighboring states, or attempts of neighboring states to dominate Iraqi regions…”