Methodology Tree for Forecasting The Methodology Tree for

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Methodology Tree for Forecasting The Methodology Tree for Forecasting classifies all possible types of

Methodology Tree for Forecasting The Methodology Tree for Forecasting classifies all possible types of forecasting methods into categories and shows how they relate to one another. Dotted lines represent possible relationships. Knowledge source Judgmental Others Univariate Multivariate Self Data- Theorybased Role No role Unstructured Structured Role playing (Simulated interaction) Unaided judgment Statistical Intentions/ expectations Conjoint analysis Extrapolation models Quantitative analogies Data mining Neural nets Rule-based forecasting Feedback No feedback Predictio n markets Delphi Structure d analogies Linear Classification Game theory Decomposition Judgmental bootstrappi ng Expert systems Causal models Segmentation Methodology Tree for Forecasti forecastingprinciples. com JSA-KCG September 2005

Sufficient objective data Judgmental methods No Quantitative methods Yes Good knowledge of relationships Large

Sufficient objective data Judgmental methods No Quantitative methods Yes Good knowledge of relationships Large changes expected No Yes Conflict among a few decision makers Policy analysis No Yes No Accuracy feedback Yes No No Yes Unaided judgment Type of data Yes Policy analysis Cross-section Similar cases exist No No Yes No Type of knowledge No Time series Yes Good domain knowledge Policy analysis Yes Large changes likely Yes No Domain Self Delphi/ Prediction markets Judgmental bootstrapping/ Decomposition Conjoint analysis Intentions/ expectations Role playing (Simulated interaction/ Game theory) No Single method Use unadjusted forecast Structured analogies Several methods provide useful forecasts Omitted informati on? No Yes Quantitative analogies Expert systems Rule-based forecasting Extrapolation/ Causal Neural nets/ models/ Data mining Segmentation Yes Combine forecasts Use adjusted forecast Selection Tree for Forecasting Metho forecastingprinciples. com JSA-KCG January 2006