Methodology Part 1 Hindsight Bias I knew it

Methodology Part 1

Hindsight Bias “I knew it all along” The tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that we knew the outcome

Critical Thinking Critical thinking is smart thinking Examines assumptions Discerns hidden values Evaluates evidence Assesses conclusions

How do psychologists answer questions? The Scientific Method Theory a hunch explanation using an integrated set of principles that organizes observations and predicts behaviors or events Hypothesis can be confirmed or refuted a testable prediction, implied by a theory

Scientific method continued Operational Definition a statement of the procedures used to define research variables Replication repeating a study with dif. participants in dif. situations to see if the basic findings extend to other circumstances

Scientific Process confirm, reject, or revise 1. Theories Ex. Low self esteem feeds depression leads to 3. Research and observations Ex. Administer tests of self-esteem and depression. See if a low score on 1 predicts a high score on the other 2. Hypotheses Ex. Ppl with low self-esteem will score higher on a depression scale

Scientific Method A good theory is useful if it… effecting organizes a range of observations implies clear predictions that anyone can use to check theory

Types of research Case Study: an observational technique where 1 person is studied in depth cannot make generalizations from a case study

Types of Research Survey looks at many cases at once. random sampling thats representative technique for identifying self-reported attitudes + behaviors, usually by questioning. Population: all the cases in a grp being studied from which samples may be drawn. Random Sample: sample that fairly represents the population

Types of research Naturalistic observation Describes behavior, doesn’t explain behavior doesn’t try to manipulate or control the situation, just observes + records

Correlation the measure to the extent that 2 factors vary together and how well either factor predicts the other How well does A predict B? Positive vs. negative correlation Strength of the correlation coefficient a statistical # of the relationship btwn 2 things -1. 0 to +1. 0 Scatterplot: graphed cluster of dots that represents correlation

Correlation + causation Correlation does not imply cause and effect!

Examples Low self esteem -----> depression OR Depression ---------> low self-esteem OR Distressing events or biological disposition ---> Low self-esteem + depression