Meteorology and Leslies Meteorology The weather is a

Meteorology and Leslie’s

Meteorology • The weather is a constantly changing phenomenon that meteorologists try to predict. • Over the past 60 years the tools meteorologists use to help us predict the weather have improved dramatically.

Radar • Function: to help meteorologists determine the location and intensity of storms. • Radars have come a long way since they were first used by the weather service in the 1950’s. • Since 2000, radars have been using dual polarization technology which allows more precise precipitation forecasts to be issued. http: //www. sshep. com/dfd_info. htm http: //celebrating 200 years. noaa. gov/historymakers/abbe/weatherradar 650. html

Radar • All of the improvements in radar have helped meteorologists make more accurate forecasts. • The amount of coverage area across the US helps in the tracking and prediction of storms.

Satellite • The first weather satellite was launched on April 1, 1960. • There are currently two type of weather satellites in orbit each with its own advantages – Geostationary Satellites – Polar Orbiting Satellites • They allow for the continual monitoring of the mid-latitudes which is right where Leslie’s stores are located. http: //www. weatherquestions. com/How_do_weather_satellites _work. htm

Future Satellites • A new Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) is scheduled to be launched in 2015. • With the new technology on board, meteorologists will be able to create forecasts in a more timely and accurate manner. http: //www. noaanews. noaa. gov/stories 2009/20090507_goesr. • The satellite will mainly be html used to create better visible and infrared imagery.

Future Satellites • The National Polar. Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPPOESS) will replace the current Polar Orbiters. • They will allow us to observe, assess, and predict the total Earth system. • The improvements in both types of satellites will allow meteorologists to provide even better forecasts for many days into the future. http: //pdf. directindustry. com/pdf/northrop-grummansynoptics/national-polar-orbiting-operational-environmental-satellitesystem-npoess/33187 -138352. html

Weather Balloons • Weather balloons are launched from airports across the country to obtain data from the upper atmosphere. ― They are launched twice a day. • Many more weather balloons are launched today than in the past.

ASOS and AWOS Networks • The Automated Surface Observing System and the Automated Weather Observing System are groups of weather instruments that are located at airports that provide us with even more information. • They give us a constant picture of what is happening across the United States. ASOS AWOS http: //wattsupwiththat. com/2009/01/17/all-time-low-temperature-record-forillinois-called-into-question-by-nws-citing-lack-of-confidence-in-equipment-ismisguided/

What do we do with the data? • All of the data that is coming in from the different instruments listed before allow meteorologists to initialize our models. – Meteorologists use computer models to help predict future weather. • If the initial conditions are not entered in correctly, there is little hope of producing an accurate forecast. • With the increasing technology, meteorologists are able to produce more accurate forecasts. http: //www. meteo. psu. edu/~gadomski/WRFEAST_0 z/wrfloo p. html

Are Forecasts Improving? • The graphs displayed on the next three slides show that meteorological forecasts have been improving.

Figure 1 • This shows the Level of Skill in forecasting the flow pattern of the upper atmosphere for the 3, 5, and 7 day forecast. • This graph shows a steady increase in the accuracy and that the 7 day forecast has become more accurate than the 5 day forecast of just 20 years ago.

Figure 2 • This graph shows the S 1 scores for the height of the 500 millibar surface. • This height is important for meteorologists to know when preparing their forecasts. • The S 1 score is computed via the equation: • Skill percent = 2 * (70 – S 1) • A score of 20 in this format is perfect and a score of 70 is worthless. • As you can see meteorologists forecasts are getting very close to being perfect.

Figure 3 • This figure represent the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Operational Forecast Skill. • The graph is plotted as a skill score with a 100 being a perfect forecast. • The graph shows a steady increase in the 36 and 72 hour forecasts of the 500 millibar level.

Why Leslie’s Needs Meteorology • It would be very easy to go to the internet and find forecasts for different areas of the country for many days in advance. • With the Splash Index, Leslie’s would constantly be updated on changing weather across the country. • With our product, executives would be able to make quick decisions to better manage the company and your supplies.