Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Jose Morneau

Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Josée Morneau Gilles Verner Meteorological Service of Canada Dorval, Québec, Canada. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006

Outline • Current Operational Status: (Gilles Verner) – – – MSC Organization and Satellite Reception Facilities Telecoms and Computers Operational NWP System at CMC and Data Usage MSC Observing Networks and Canadian AMDAR Recent changes to NWP System and impact • Recent and Future Developments: (Josée Morneau) Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006

Environment Canada – 2004 Minister David Anderson Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency Deputy Minister Suzanne Hurtubise ASSISTANT DEPUTY MINISTERS Environmental Conservation Service Karen Brown Environmental Protection Service Barry Stemshorn Meteorological Service of Canada Marc Denis Everell Corp. Services Hélène Beauchemin Policy & Commumications. Norine Smith REGIONS Pacific & Yukon Prairie & Northern Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Ontario Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Quebec Atlantic 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006

Environment Canada 2006 – Results based Management CESF Outcome: Attain the highest level of environmental quality as a means to enhance the well-being of Canadians, preserve our natural environment, and advance our long-term competitiveness Departmental Strategic Outcomes 2. Weather and environmental predictions and services reduce risks and contribute to the wellbeing of Canadians 1. Canada’s natural capital is restored, conserved, and enhanced 3. Canadians and their environment are protected from the effects of pollution and waste 4. The impacts of climate change on Canada are reduced Intermediate Outcomes A. Biodiversity is conserved and protected. B. Water is clean, safe and secure C. Canadians adopt approaches that ensure the sustainable use and management of natural capital and working landscapes A. Improved knowledge and information on weather and environmental conditions influences decision-making B. Canadians are informed of, and respond appropriately to, current and predicted environmental conditions A. Risks posed by pollutants or other harmful or dangerous substances in the environment are reduced B. Canadians adopt sustainable consumption and production approaches A. Net emissions of greenhouse gases are reduced. B. Canadians understand the impacts of climate change and adapt to its effects Outcome Project Groupings 1. Wildlife is conserved and protected [Trevor Swerdfager] 2. Land landscapes are managed sustainably. [Bob Mc. Lean ] 1. Aquatic ecosystems are conserved and protection [John Carey] 1. Integrated information and knowledge enables integrated approaches to protecting and conserving priority ecosystems [Jim Abraham & Albin Tremblay ] 1. Environmental monitoring allows EC to identify, analyse and predict weather, air, water and climate conditions [Tom Nichols] 1. Environmental forecasts and warnings are produced to enable the public to take action to protect their safety, security and well being [Angèle Simard ] 1. Air quality is improved [Gordon Owen] 1. Canadians are informed of environmental pollution and are engaged in measures to address it [John Arseneau] 1. The climate change plan, Moving Forward on Climate Change, is implemented [Michael Beale 2. Information, assessment and understanding of the state of ecosystem sustainability supports decision-making [Michelle Brenning] 2. Science supports weather and environmental predictions and services, Departmental decisionmaking and policy development [Michel Béland ] 2. Canadians are better informed through improved weather and environmental services and leveraged partnership opportunities [David Grimes–l] 2. Risks to Canadians and their environment posed by pollutants or other harmful or dangerous substances are assessed [John Arseneau] 2. Sector-based, and other approaches promote sustainable consumption and production (Cynthia Wright ] 2. The long-term global climate change regime is consistent with Canadian interests [Sharon Lee Smith] 3. Canadians benefit from the creation and use fo meteorological, and environmental information by EC and F/P/T partners, in support of programs of common interest [Ken Macdonald] 3. Risks to Canadians and impacts on air, water, and land from pollutants or other harmful or dangerous substances are managed (Anne O’Toole l] Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division 4. Environmental information and services empower Canadians to take action on environmental priorities [Suzan Bowserl] 1. Adaptive strategies to address the impacts of climate change are developed and implemented for the benefit of Canadians and the environment (Michel Béland] - Competitiveness and Environmental Meteorological Service of CESF Canada 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006 Status Report Sustainability Framework

HRPT Receive Sites Tromso Gilmore Creek, Alaska Direct Receive Readiness For METOP Next Summer Any METOP downloads at Gilmore Creek and Wallops? DOMSAT EARS Edmonton Halifax CMC Wallops, Virginia Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006

GOES Receive Sites Direct Receive New - Gander? Readiness For GOES-N Next Summer Vamcouver Edmonton Winnipeg Ottawa CMC (3) Halifax Montréal Toronto Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006

Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006

Telecommunications • GTS link CMC - NWS: upgraded from 64 kbps to T 1 during 2003 • Link UKMO-CMC still active (Meteosat - GOES GTS back-up) • Eumetsat - CMC link for EARS • Internet still used for access to Nesdis data • Funding for dedicated link (T 1+) with Nesdis approved, should be implemented soon as operational link, after the Nesdis relocation Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006

CMC Operational Models • 4 D-Var assimilation on model η levels (T 108), but 3 D-Var for regional • Background errors stats from 24 -48 method • Observations QC with BG check and QC-VAR • Single GEM model (global, regional, meso) Global Model • Uniform grid • Resolution of. 9º (~100 km) • 28 eta levels, lid at 10 h. Pa • Kuo convection scheme • Sundqvist stratiform scheme • Force-restore surface module with climatogical soil moisture • 10 day forecasts at 00 Z and 6 day forecasts at 12 Z. • Cut-off of T+3 h 10 Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Regional Model • Variable resolution grid • Resolution of. 1375º (~15 km) • 58 eta levels • Kain-Fritsch scheme • Sundqvist stratiform scheme • ISBA surface module with soil moisture pseudo-analysis (error feedback, no data) • 48 -hour forecasts (00 Z -12 Z) • Cut-off of T+1 h 35 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006

CMC Operational Models (cont. ) Mesoscale model • GEM-LAM at 2. 5 km, L 58 • Non-hydrostatic • No convection parameterization • Explicit condensation (Kong-Yau) • ISBA surface module • No assimilation cycle (started from 12 hr GEM-15 + BC) • 24 hour forecasts at 12 Z • 2 windows (SRN BC, Windsor. Québec corridor), more later Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Global EPS • En. KF assimilation cycle with 96 members, GEM at 1. 2º • Resolution of ~150 km (1. 2º for GEM and T 149 for SEF) • Forecasts with 16 members • Multi model approach with different physics options • 16 day forecasts at 00 Z and 12 Z • Cooperation with NCEP for NAEFS Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006

Regional model 575 X 641 grid (66% in 15 -km uniform area), 58 levels Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006

Currently two GEM 2. 5 domains Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006

Data assimilation cycles at CMC 00 UTC 06 UTC 12 UTC 18 UTC 00 UTC OBS T + 1 h 40 OBS T + 5 h 30 6 -h regional first guess 6 -h global first guess 4 D-Var Analysis OBS T + 9 h OBS T + 6 h OBS T + 9 h 6 -h global first guess 4 D-Var Analysis 6 -h global first guess OBS T + 3 h 4 D-Var Analysis first guess Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division 3 D-Var Analysis first guess 6 -h global first guess 4 D-Var Analysis 3 D-Var Analysis OBS T + 9 h 6 -h global first guess 4 D-Var Analysis OBS T + 3 h 144 h global fst 4 D-Var Analysis OBS T + 1 h 40 OBS T + 5 h 30 6 -h regional OBS T + 6 h OBS T + 3 h 240 h global fst 3 D-Var Analysis 6 -h regional first guess 3 D-Var Analysis 48 h regional fst Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006

Observations assimilated at the CMC Type Variables Thinning radiosonde/dropsonde U, V, T, (T-Td), ps 28 levels Surface report T, (T-Td), ps, (U, V over water) 1 report / 6 h Aircraft (BUFR, AIREP, AMDAR, ADS) U, V, T 1 o x 50 h. Pa per time step ATOVS NOAA 15 -16 -17 -18, AQUA AMSU-B / MHS Ocean 3 -10 2 -5 Land 6 -10 3 -4 250 km x 250 km per time step Water vapor channel GOES 10 -12 IM 3 (6. 7 m) 2 o x 2 o 3 -hourly AMV U, V (IR, WV, VI channels) 1. 5 o x 1. 5 o 11 layers, per time step MODIS polar winds (Aqua, Terra) U, V ~180 km boxes Profiler (NOAA Network) U, V (Meteosat 5 -8, GOES 10 -12, MTSAT-1 R) Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division 11 layers, per time step Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report (750 m) Vertical hourly 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006

Average amount of data assimilated per day • Overall ~ 800 000 data assimilated per day with 4 D-Var • 60% increase over 3 D-Var. +47% +199% +107% +0% Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division +76% +494% Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006

Availability of aircraft data • ADS data collected by Nav. Canada: UANT 01 CWAO (on GTS since July 05) Q: Where are the ADS data East of 30° E? Also AIREPs have almost disappeared there !! Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006

Canadian AMDAR coverage Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006

Canadian AMDAR - Status • AC Jazz: 33 CRJ and 39 DHC-8 on GTS, 10 DHC-8 retained due to problems with data quality. More CRJ being added. CRJ data very good. • Still issues with DHC-8 TT data, although improved. • Some data from AMS (DHC-8 and B 737) but not used nor transmitted due to data quality issues. • Some progress with First Air (B 737 or B 727 with TAMDAR) but data quality issues related to TAMDAR calibration. Some TAMDAR evaluation with GLFE. • C-ADAS to be replaced by in-house software. • Monitoring of data is on-going. Results showing importance of good monitoring before distribution of data. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006

TT data quality – JAZZ CRJ and DHC-8 Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006

TT data quality – JAZZ CRJ and DHC-8 CRJ data OK. For DHC-8, significant difference in bias between ascent / descent data. Related to smoothing algorithm in avionics. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006

Monitoring of TAMDAR during GLFE Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006

Monitoring of TAMDAR during GLFE Some problems with GLFE TAMDAR data earlier in experiment Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006

Monitoring of TAMDAR during GLFE TAMDAR data much improved after significant work by AIRDAT. HR data not monitored. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006

Other Canadian observations • • • Canadian AMDAR : other developments (although slow) with West Jet, AMS, Canadian North, First Air. “Synoptic” observations from CTBTO network, using SYNOP MOBIL code, header: SNCN 19 CWAO. Observations every 10 -min, 10 stations for now but should increase, received at CMC by e-mail. Canadian radar data - now available centrally at CMC, NRP (National Radar Processor) operational, full volume scans available. Forestry and Road weather stations in British Columbia - data received at CMC, in old SA format. Data redistribution restrictions currently apply…should eventually be available in BUFR. Co-operative network in Quebec (Province, Hydro-Quebec, etc), received at CMC, also redistribution restrictions…problems with BUFR data. Montreal mesonet, including research wind profiler: under installation but operated by Universities, data not yet available to CMC and redistribution restrictions may apply…should be provided to USA profiler hub Some soil TT data available, eventually in BUFR. Code conversion to BUFR: Nothing done, except for AMDAR. Ozone soundings on GTS (KULA 01 CWAO) and total column ozone. Major data management project in MSC, should lead to all data available in BUFR. Target is 2 -3 years. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006

Ozone/UV Monitoring Networks Brewer: UVA/B and total column ozone at 9 sites. Data in NRT in local ascii format. Ozone soundings now done once weekly at 10 sites. Data on GTS in CREX, 2 -3 days after measurement. Both are Research networks. Some discussions for better operations, including data transmission and formats. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006

A potential Canadian ground-based GPS network CACS/RT: CACS/PGR: CACS/ATS: CACS/GLP: CACS/WCDA: Raw GPS data received for ~30 sites from NRCan and IGS via FTP and processed in-house to ZTD (since Summer 2005) Canada-Wide Real-Time(GPS*C Service) Post-Glacial Rebound Arctic Tracking Stations not processed Great Lakes Partnership (Sfc Met, CSA/MSC) processed by NOAA/FSL Western Canada Deformation Array ALRT Sfc Met at 19 sites EURK TUKT INVK SACH Hourly network (GAMIT) and Point Positioning (PPP) solutions are made available in NRT (J. Aparicio) RESO KIQI HOLM WHIT Potential of ~ 127 sites YELL WILL ELIZ BCOV WSLR NTKA NANO PTAL PGC 5 CHWK UCLU ALBH NAIN BAKE CHUR FLIN KUUJ SCH 2 STJO BAIE PRDS WINN PICL ROSS DRAO Not shown: regional (provincial) networks, Canadian Coast Guard sites PARY FRDN VALD ALGO NRC 1 HLFX PWEL KNGS = Radiosonde-GPS collocations (7) Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006

Changes to CMC NWP System since last meeting Minor changes : • • AMV’s from MTSAT-1 R : July 2005 (replacing GOES-P) Blacklisting of DHC-8 AMDAR : Oct 2005 Blacklisting amsu-a ch 6 from NOAA-15 : Oct 2005 Blacklisting amsu-b ch a from NOAA-15 : Jan 2006 Assimilation of satellite data, December 7, 2005, in Global + Regional systems • • AMSU-A and MHS on NOAA-18 BUFR Winds for Meteosat-8 (replacing Meteosat-7) Major changes to EPS on December 13, 2005 • • • Forecast twice a day to day 16 Inclusion of MODIS winds and AMSUA on AQUA Improvements to En. KF algorithm (model error) En. KF – 2 x 48 members replaced by 4 x 24 (better stats) In forecast models, use of ISBA for ½ of members Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006

Recent NWP verification New Sat data GEM-15 4 D-Var Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006

CSA Chinook mission • The CSA decided in early 2004 to make SWIFT the primary instrument for their second Sci. Sat mission The CSA selects GPS instrument as secondary payload with SWIFT and creates the Chinook Mission March 2005 • SWIFT and partner experiment ARGO are just about to start mission phase B/C contract/studies for projected launch in Nov 2010, 3 year mission • Unclear at this stage if data will be available in realtime, work and funding needed for this. • Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006

PART 2 : Outline Recent & future developments • 2006 : – Summer : new version of global model for Medium-range forecasting system & 4 D-Var analysis changes – Fall : Update to Regional model for Short-Range Forecasting system • 2007 : – Winter : • METOP amsu-a & mhs, AIRS, SSMI & SSMI/S, COSMIC, 3 hourly sfc obs, Quik. SCAT, update to AMV’s. • Revised bgck & obs error statistics. • Off-line biais correction for radiance data. • 2008+ : – Raise global model lid to 0, 1 h. Pa – More obs … – GEM-LAM with Continental/Local 4 D-Var LAM Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006

Main Features of the New Model Version (Stéphane Bélair, MRD) • Increased horizontal and vertical resolution • 800 x 600 x 58 L (33 km) compared to 400 x 28 L (100 km) • Numerical poles at geographic locations (non-rotated) • Representation of clouds and precipitation • Shallow convection with Kuo Transient • Deep convection with Kain-Fritsch (vs Kuo) • Modified Sundqvist scheme for grid-scale condensation • Bougeault-Lacarrère for the turbulent mixing length (vs Blackadar) • Constant thermodynamic roughness length over water in the Tropics (vs Charnock everywhere) • ISBA land surface scheme with sequential assimilation of soil moisture (based on OI) (vs Force-Restore) Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006

Other Changes to the 4 D-Var Analysis (Stéphane Laroche, MRD) GEM-Glb New GEM-Glb Outer loops 2 2 High-resolution (trajectory) 400 x 28 L Time step = 45 min 800 x 600 x 58 L Time step = 15 min NL- Physics Same as GEM-Glb Same as new model Inner loops 40 + 30 = 70 30 + 25 = 55 Simplified Physics -PBL & SGO -Stratiform precip. -Deep convection -PBL & SGO -Stratiform precip. Low-resolution (Analysis increments) 240 x 120 x 28 L Time step = 45 min 240 x 120 x 58 L Time step = 45 min Error statistics NMC (1999) NMC (revised) Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006

Horizontal Grid Opérationnel 400 X 200 -> 100 km Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Global-méso 800 X 600 -> 33 km at 45 o N Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 CPOP May, 2006 – 11 April 2006

Vertical Levels Opérationnel 10 h. Pa Global-méso 10 h. Pa 28 eta levels Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division 58 eta levels DZ (km) Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report DZ (km) 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006

Global Evaluation of Precipitation NEW JAN 2002 Contours: (mm/day) 0 -1 1 -5 5 -10 10 -20 >20 GPCP OPE Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006

Global Evaluation of Precipitation NEW JUL 2002 Contours: (mm/day) 0 -1 1 -5 5 -10 10 -20 >20 GPCP OPE Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006

Global Evaluation of Clouds with SSM/I new ope SSMI-13 WINTER new ope SSMI-13 Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006

Global Evaluation of Clouds with SSM/I new ope SSMI-13 SUMMER new ope SSMI-13 Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006

Pre-implementation testing Evaluation was done on 2 periods of two months each: Summer 2004: 15 july @ 15 sept. 2004 Winter 2005: 15 dec 2004 @ 15 feb 2005 Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006

Objective Evaluation Against Analyses Anomaly Correlations (Northern Hem. ) Summer Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Winter Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006

Objective Evaluation Against Analyses Anomaly Correlations (Southern Hem. ) Summer Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Winter Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006

Tropics 72 -h forecasts RMSE and BIAS 125 SUMMER cases Blue: Operational model Red: Global Meso Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006

Precipitation over North America (day 3) Summer Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Winter Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006

Systematic Evaluation of Hurricanes and Typhoons over 14 cases (3 -day runs) (Anne-Marie Leduc, CMC) Central pressure (h. Pa) Position (km) Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006

Winter 2007 : more observations & revised statistics • • • AIRS & SSMI radiances 3 hourly sfc data Off-line biais correction for radiances data. Revised background & observation errors statistics More low level AMV’s SSMI/S radiances Quik. SCAT Metop ATOVS amsu-a & mhs COSMIC refractivity Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006

AIRS assimilation • 100 channels selected from 281 set • Use center pixel of 3 X 3 array (warmest now available) • Eliminate channels sensitive to ozone, peaking above model top at 10 h. Pa, redundant surface channels, complex Jacobian shapes, with large RTM errors Identify channels insensitive to clouds. Main criteria: • Cloud height and emissivity from CO 2 slicing. Local dtau/dp must be negligible up to 50 hpa above cloud. • Background check (+/- 3 s) Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006

AIRS assimilation Short global cycle with current operational model (0, 9 o) February 2004 Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006

SSMI assimilation : Experiment Description • Periods: July 1 -31, 2003 ; January 1 -31, 2004 • Control: 3 D-Var, Global 0. 9 o model, direct assim. of GOES-W, and NOAA 15, 16, 17* AMSUA & AMSU-B Tbs, plus conventional obs (*AMSU-A data unavailable for January 2004) • Experiment 1: addition of SSM/I Tbs over oceans in clear skies • Experiment 8: addition of SSM/I Tbs & removal of AMSU-A CH 3, & reject AMSU-B CH 2, 3, 4, 5 over oceans where CH 2 |O-B| 5 K Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006

Mean Integrated Water Vapour (kg m-2): AMSRE – ANALYSIS July 2003 Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report January 2004 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006

Forecast Validation Using Analyses January 2004 CNTL EXP 1 Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report CNTL EXP 8 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006

Winter 2007 : Updated background and New Background Error Covariances observation error statistics (Mark Buehner, MRD) • 3 -D background error std dev computed using Monte Carlo approach • Will replace the NMC approach used for current operational system. • Higher values in tropics than extra-tropics and higher values over oceans than over continents Streamfunction at 500 h. Pa (filtered to T 20) Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006

Background Error Spatial Correlations • Analysis increment from single zonal wind observation at 500 h. Pa over Atlantic ocean • New approach gives sharper spatial correlations for all variables • Sharper vertical correlations for temperature results in smaller background error variance in space of AMSU-A observations, compensated by reduction in σobs NMC method Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division NMC method Monte Carlo method Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006

Future development • 2007 -08+ : – Raise global model lid to 0, 1 h. Pa – More obs : • High level peaking channels from AIRS & ATOVS • Hourly sfc pressure data • More GEO radiances • Scat winds (ASCAT) • AQ data – GEM-LAM Continental/Local 4 D-Var LAM Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006

Thank you Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 19 th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting 3 -5 May, 2006