Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Gilles Verner

Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Gilles Verner Meteorological Service of Canada Dorval, Québec, Canada. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 7 th Asia-Pacific Satellite Data Exchange and Utilization Meeting 20 -22 September, 2006

Outline • Current Operational Status: – – – Satellite Reception Facilities Telecoms and Computers Operational NWP System at CMC and Data Usage MSC Observing Networks and Canadian AMDAR Recent changes to NWP System and impact • Recent and Future Developments: – New Global model – Incorporation of additional observations in assimilation – Longer term changes to NWP system Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 7 th Asia-Pacific Satellite Data Exchange and Utilization Meeting 20 -22 September, 2006

MSC Direct Satellite Reception Tromso Eumetsat Resolute Dartmouth HRPT site may be moving to Gander Gilmore Creek, Alaska GOES HRPT DOMSAT EARS Vancouver Edmonton Dartmouth Winnipeg CMC (3) Ottawa Readiness For METOP This Fall Toronto Wallops, Virginia Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 7 th Asia-Pacific Satellite Data Exchange and Utilization Meeting 20 -22 September, 2006

Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 7 th Asia-Pacific Satellite Data Exchange and Utilization Meeting 20 -22 September, 2006

Telecommunications • GTS link CMC - NWS: upgraded from 64 kbps to T 1 during 2003 • Link UKMO-CMC still active (Meteosat - GOES GTS back-up, MTSAT? ) • Eumetsat - CMC link for EARS • Internet still used for access to Nesdis data • Funding for dedicated link (T 1+) with Nesdis approved, should be implemented soon as operational link, once new Nesdis site is operational Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 7 th Asia-Pacific Satellite Data Exchange and Utilization Meeting 20 -22 September, 2006

CMC Operational Models • 4 D-Var assimilation on model η levels (T 108), but 3 D-Var for regional • Background errors stats from 24 -48 method • Observations QC with BG check and QC-VAR • Single GEM model (global, regional, meso) Global Model • Uniform grid • Resolution of. 9º (~100 km) • 28 eta levels, lid at 10 h. Pa • Kuo convection scheme • Sundqvist stratiform scheme • Force-restore surface module with climatogical soil moisture • 10 day forecasts at 00 Z and 6 day forecasts at 12 Z. • Cut-off of T+3 h 10 Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Regional Model • Variable resolution grid • Resolution of. 1375º (~15 km) • 58 eta levels • Kain-Fritsch scheme • Sundqvist stratiform scheme • ISBA surface module with soil moisture pseudo-analysis (error feedback, no data) • 48 -hour forecasts (00 Z -12 Z) • Cut-off of T+1 h 35 Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 7 th Asia-Pacific Satellite Data Exchange and Utilization Meeting 20 -22 September, 2006

CMC Operational Models (cont. ) Mesoscale model • GEM-LAM at 2. 5 km, L 58 • Non-hydrostatic • No convection parameterization • Explicit condensation (Kong-Yau) • ISBA surface module • No assimilation cycle (started from 12 hr GEM-15 + BC) • 24 hour forecasts at 12 Z • 2 windows (SRN BC, Windsor. Québec corridor), more later Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Global EPS • En. KF assimilation cycle with 96 members, GEM at 1. 2º • Resolution of ~150 km (1. 2º for GEM and T 149 for SEF) • Forecasts with 16 members • Multi model approach with different physics options • 16 day forecasts at 00 Z and 12 Z • Cooperation with NCEP for NAEFS Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 7 th Asia-Pacific Satellite Data Exchange and Utilization Meeting 20 -22 September, 2006

Regional model 575 X 641 grid (66% in 15 -km uniform area), 58 levels Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 7 th Asia-Pacific Satellite Data Exchange and Utilization Meeting 20 -22 September, 2006

Currently two GEM 2. 5 domains Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 7 th Asia-Pacific Satellite Data Exchange and Utilization Meeting 20 -22 September, 2006

Data assimilation cycles at CMC 00 UTC 06 UTC 12 UTC 18 UTC 00 UTC OBS T + 1 h 40 OBS T + 5 h 30 6 -h regional first guess 6 -h global first guess 4 D-Var Analysis OBS T + 9 h OBS T + 6 h OBS T + 9 h 6 -h global first guess 4 D-Var Analysis 6 -h global first guess OBS T + 3 h 4 D-Var Analysis first guess Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division 3 D-Var Analysis first guess 6 -h global first guess 4 D-Var Analysis 3 D-Var Analysis OBS T + 9 h 6 -h global first guess 4 D-Var Analysis OBS T + 3 h 144 h global fst 4 D-Var Analysis OBS T + 1 h 40 OBS T + 5 h 30 6 -h regional OBS T + 6 h OBS T + 3 h 240 h global fst 3 D-Var Analysis 6 -h regional first guess 3 D-Var Analysis 48 h regional fst Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 7 th Asia-Pacific Satellite Data Exchange and Utilization Meeting 20 -22 September, 2006

Observations assimilated at the CMC Type Variables Thinning radiosonde/dropsonde U, V, T, (T-Td), ps 28 levels Surface report T, (T-Td), ps, (U, V over water) 1 report / 6 h Aircraft (BUFR, AIREP, AMDAR, ADS) U, V, T 1 o x 50 h. Pa per time step ATOVS NOAA 15 -16 -17 -18, AQUA AMSU-B / MHS Ocean 3 -10 2 -5 Land 6 -10 3 -4 250 km x 250 km per time step Water vapor channel GOES 11 -12 IM 3 (6. 7 m) 2 o x 2 o 3 -hourly AMV U, V (IR, WV, VI channels) 1. 5 o x 1. 5 o 11 layers, per time step MODIS polar winds (Aqua, Terra) U, V ~180 km boxes Profiler (NOAA Network) U, V (Meteosat 5 -8, GOES 11 -12, MTSAT-1 R) Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division 11 layers, per time step Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report (750 m) Vertical hourly 7 th Asia-Pacific Satellite Data Exchange and Utilization Meeting 20 -22 September, 2006

Average amount of data assimilated per day • Overall ~ 800 000 data assimilated per day with 4 D-Var • 60% increase over 3 D-Var. +47% +199% +107% +0% Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division +76% +494% Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 7 th Asia-Pacific Satellite Data Exchange and Utilization Meeting 20 -22 September, 2006

Availability of aircraft data • ADS data collected by Nav. Canada: UANT 01 CWAO (on GTS since July 05) Some ADS data now collected in Northern Canada Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 7 th Asia-Pacific Satellite Data Exchange and Utilization Meeting 20 -22 September, 2006

Canadian AMDAR coverage Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 7 th Asia-Pacific Satellite Data Exchange and Utilization Meeting 20 -22 September, 2006

TT data quality – JAZZ CRJ and DHC-8 CRJ Aircraft data OK. For DHC-8 Aircraft, significant difference in bias between ascent / descent data. Related to smoothing algorithm in avionics. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 7 th Asia-Pacific Satellite Data Exchange and Utilization Meeting 20 -22 September, 2006

Ozone/UV Monitoring Networks Brewer: UVA/B and total column ozone at 9 sites. Data in NRT in local ascii format. Ozone soundings now done once weekly at 10 sites. Data on GTS in CREX, 2 -3 days after measurement. Both are Research networks. Some discussions for better operations, including data transmission and formats. Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 7 th Asia-Pacific Satellite Data Exchange and Utilization Meeting 20 -22 September, 2006

A potential Canadian ground-based GPS network CACS/RT: CACS/PGR: CACS/ATS: CACS/GLP: CACS/WCDA: Raw GPS data received for ~30 sites from NRCan and IGS via FTP and processed in-house to ZTD (since Summer 2005) Canada-Wide Real-Time(GPS*C Service) Post-Glacial Rebound Arctic Tracking Stations not processed Great Lakes Partnership (Sfc Met, CSA/MSC) processed by NOAA/FSL Western Canada Deformation Array ALRT Sfc Met at 19 sites EURK TUKT INVK SACH Hourly network (GAMIT) and Point Positioning (PPP) solutions are made available in NRT (J. Aparicio) RESO KIQI HOLM WHIT Potential of ~ 127 sites YELL WILL ELIZ BCOV WSLR NTKA NANO PTAL PGC 5 CHWK UCLU ALBH NAIN BAKE CHUR FLIN KUUJ SCH 2 STJO BAIE PRDS WINN PICL ROSS DRAO Not shown: regional (provincial) networks, Canadian Coast Guard sites PARY FRDN VALD ALGO NRC 1 HLFX PWEL KNGS = Radiosonde-GPS collocations (7) Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 7 th Asia-Pacific Satellite Data Exchange and Utilization Meeting 20 -22 September, 2006

CSA Chinook mission • The CSA decided in early 2004 to make SWIFT the primary instrument for their second Sci. Sat mission The CSA selects GPS instrument as secondary payload with SWIFT and creates the Chinook Mission March 2005 • SWIFT and partner experiment ARGO are just about to start mission phase B/C contract/studies for projected launch in Nov 2010, 3 year mission • Unclear at this stage if data will be available in realtime, work and funding needed for this. • Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 7 th Asia-Pacific Satellite Data Exchange and Utilization Meeting 20 -22 September, 2006

Changes to CMC NWP System since last meeting Minor changes : • • • AMV’s from MTSAT-1 R : July 2005 (replacing GOES-P) Blacklisting of DHC-8 AMDAR : Oct 2005 Blacklisting amsu-a ch 6 from NOAA-15 : Oct 2005 Blacklisting amsu-b ch a from NOAA-15 : Jan 2006 GOES-10 to GOES-11: AMV’s and radiances : July 2006 Assimilation of satellite data, December 7, 2005, in Global + Regional systems • • AMSU-A and MHS on NOAA-18 BUFR Winds for Meteosat-8 (replacing Meteosat-7) Major changes to EPS on December 13, 2005 • • • Forecast twice a day to day 16 Inclusion of MODIS winds and AMSUA on AQUA Improvements to En. KF algorithm (model error) En. KF – 2 x 48 members replaced by 4 x 24 (better stats) In forecast models, use of ISBA for ½ of members Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 7 th Asia-Pacific Satellite Data Exchange and Utilization Meeting 20 -22 September, 2006

Recent NWP verification New Sat data GEM-15 4 D-Var Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 7 th Asia-Pacific Satellite Data Exchange and Utilization Meeting 20 -22 September, 2006

Recent & future developments • 2006 : – Now : new version of global model for Medium-range forecasting system & 4 D-Var analysis changes – Fall : Update to Regional model for Short-Range Forecasting system (vertical resolution and new statistics) – Begin transition to new IBM • 2007 : – Spring : More observations, global and regional • METOP amsu-a & mhs, AIRS, SSMI & SSMI/S, COSMIC-CHAMPGRACE, 3 hourly sfc obs, Quik. SCAT, update to AMV’s. • Revised bgck & obs error statistics. • Higher vertical resolution from soundings and aircraft data • Off-line biais correction for radiance data. – Summer : 6 -hourly regional cycle and FGAT • 2008+ : – Raise global model lid to 0, 1 h. Pa – More obs … – GEM-LAM with Continental/Local 4 D-Var LAM Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 7 th Asia-Pacific Satellite Data Exchange and Utilization Meeting 20 -22 September, 2006

Main Features of the New Model Version (Stéphane Bélair, MRD) • Increased horizontal and vertical resolution • 800 x 600 x 58 L (33 km) compared to 400 x 28 L (100 km) • Numerical poles at geographic locations (non-rotated) • Representation of clouds and precipitation • Shallow convection with Kuo Transient • Deep convection with Kain-Fritsch (vs Kuo) • Modified Sundqvist scheme for grid-scale condensation • Bougeault-Lacarrère for the turbulent mixing length (vs Blackadar) • Constant thermodynamic roughness length over water in the Tropics (vs Charnock everywhere) • ISBA land surface scheme with sequential assimilation of soil moisture (based on OI) (vs Force-Restore) Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 7 th Asia-Pacific Satellite Data Exchange and Utilization Meeting 20 -22 September, 2006

Other Changes to the 4 D-Var Analysis (Stéphane Laroche, MRD) GEM-Glb New GEM-Glb Outer loops 2 2 High-resolution (trajectory) 400 x 28 L Time step = 45 min 800 x 600 x 58 L Time step = 15 min NL- Physics Same as GEM-Glb Same as new model Inner loops 40 + 30 = 70 30 + 25 = 55 Simplified Physics -PBL & SGO -Stratiform precip. -Deep convection -PBL & SGO -Stratiform precip. Low-resolution (Analysis increments) 240 x 120 x 28 L Time step = 45 min 240 x 120 x 58 L Time step = 45 min Error statistics NMC (1999) NMC (revised) Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 7 th Asia-Pacific Satellite Data Exchange and Utilization Meeting 20 -22 September, 2006

Horizontal Grid Opérationnel 400 X 200 -> 100 km Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Global-méso 800 X 600 -> 33 km at 45 o N Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 7 th Asia-Pacific Satellite Data Exchange and Utilization Meeting CPOP – 2006 11 April 2006 20 -22 September,

Vertical Levels Opérationnel 10 h. Pa Global-méso 10 h. Pa 28 eta levels Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division 58 eta levels DZ (km) Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report DZ (km) 7 th Asia-Pacific Satellite Data Exchange and Utilization Meeting 20 -22 September, 2006

Global Evaluation of Precipitation NEW JAN 2002 Contours: (mm/day) 0 -1 1 -5 5 -10 10 -20 >20 GPCP OPE Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 7 th Asia-Pacific Satellite Data Exchange and Utilization Meeting 20 -22 September, 2006

Global Evaluation of Precipitation NEW JUL 2002 Contours: (mm/day) 0 -1 1 -5 5 -10 10 -20 >20 GPCP OPE Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 7 th Asia-Pacific Satellite Data Exchange and Utilization Meeting 20 -22 September, 2006

Global Evaluation of Clouds with SSM/I new ope SSMI-13 WINTER new ope SSMI-13 Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 7 th Asia-Pacific Satellite Data Exchange and Utilization Meeting 20 -22 September, 2006

Global Evaluation of Clouds with SSM/I new ope SSMI-13 SUMMER new ope SSMI-13 Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 7 th Asia-Pacific Satellite Data Exchange and Utilization Meeting 20 -22 September, 2006

Pre-implementation testing Evaluation was done on 2 periods of two months each: Summer 2004: 15 july @ 15 sept. 2004 Winter 2005: 15 dec 2004 @ 15 feb 2005 Also running is parallel mode since June 2006 Operational implementation by end October 06 Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 7 th Asia-Pacific Satellite Data Exchange and Utilization Meeting 20 -22 September, 2006

Objective Evaluation Against Analyses Anomaly Correlations (Northern Hem. ) Summer Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Winter Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 7 th Asia-Pacific Satellite Data Exchange and Utilization Meeting 20 -22 September, 2006

Objective Evaluation Against Analyses Anomaly Correlations (Southern Hem. ) Summer Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Winter Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 7 th Asia-Pacific Satellite Data Exchange and Utilization Meeting 20 -22 September, 2006

Precipitation over North America (day 3) Summer Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Winter Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 7 th Asia-Pacific Satellite Data Exchange and Utilization Meeting 20 -22 September, 2006

Systematic Evaluation of Hurricanes and Typhoons over 14 cases (3 -day runs) (Anne-Marie Leduc, CMC) Central pressure (h. Pa) Position (km) Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 7 th Asia-Pacific Satellite Data Exchange and Utilization Meeting 20 -22 September, 2006

Spring 2007 : more observations & revised statistics • • • AIRS & SSMI radiances 3 hourly sfc data Off-line biais correction for radiances data Revised background & observation error statistics More low level AMV’s SSMI/S radiances Quik. SCAT Metop ATOVS: amsu-a & mhs COSMIC-CHAMP-GRACE refractivity Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 7 th Asia-Pacific Satellite Data Exchange and Utilization Meeting 20 -22 September, 2006

AIRS radiance assimilation • 100 channels selected from 281 set • Use center pixel of 3 X 3 array (warmest now available and to be used) • Eliminate channels sensitive to ozone, peaking above model top at 10 h. Pa, redundant surface channels, complex Jacobian shapes, with large RTM errors Identify channels insensitive to clouds. Main criteria: • Cloud height and emissivity from CO 2 slicing. Local dtau/dp must be negligible up to 50 hpa above cloud. • Background check (+/- 3 s) Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 7 th Asia-Pacific Satellite Data Exchange and Utilization Meeting 20 -22 September, 2006

AIRS assimilation Short global cycle with current operational model (0, 9 o) February 2004 Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 7 th Asia-Pacific Satellite Data Exchange and Utilization Meeting 20 -22 September, 2006

SSMI assimilation : Experiment Description • Periods: July 1 -31, 2003 ; January 1 -31, 2004 • Control: 3 D-Var, Global 0. 9 o model, direct assim. of GOES-W, and NOAA 15, 16, 17* AMSUA & AMSU-B Tbs, plus conventional obs (*AMSU-A data unavailable for January 2004) • Experiment 1: addition of SSM/I Tbs over oceans in clear skies • Experiment 8: addition of SSM/I Tbs & removal of AMSU-A CH 3, & reject AMSU-B CH 2, 3, 4, 5 over oceans where CH 2 |O-B| 5 K Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 7 th Asia-Pacific Satellite Data Exchange and Utilization Meeting 20 -22 September, 2006

Mean Integrated Water Vapour (kg m-2): AMSRE – ANALYSIS July 2003 Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report January 2004 7 th Asia-Pacific Satellite Data Exchange and Utilization Meeting 20 -22 September, 2006

Future development • 2008+ : – Raise global model lid to 0, 1 h. Pa – More obs : • • • High level peaking channels from AIRS & ATOVS IASI, GRAS, ASCAT on METOP Hourly sfc pressure data More GEO radiances (METEOSAT, MTSAT …) GOES-SA: AMV’s and radiances AQ data – GEM-LAM Continental/Local 4 D-Var LAM Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 7 th Asia-Pacific Satellite Data Exchange and Utilization Meeting 20 -22 September, 2006

Thank you Environnement Environment Canada Data Assimilation and Quality Control Division Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report 7 th Asia-Pacific Satellite Data Exchange and Utilization Meeting 20 -22 September, 2006