Meteorological information for locust control operations FAO experience

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Meteorological information for locust control operations FAO experience national / international ops rain, temperature,

Meteorological information for locust control operations FAO experience national / international ops rain, temperature, wind weaknesses & solutions Keith Cressman Locust Forecasting Office Rome, Italy

Desert Locust countries Migration after summer Migration after winter/spring TUN MOR IRN ALG LIB

Desert Locust countries Migration after summer Migration after winter/spring TUN MOR IRN ALG LIB EGY SAU PAK IND MAU OMN MLI NER CHD SUD ERI DJI YEM SOM ETH Recession area = 16 million sq. km Invasion area = 32 million sq. km (20% of world land mass) 2/9

Desert Locust programmes National (Locust Control Centres) Outputs assess situation • forecasts (short) •

Desert Locust programmes National (Locust Control Centres) Outputs assess situation • forecasts (short) • plan surveys and control ops 10 -day sit reps monthly bulletins • Regional (FAO Commissions) • national strengthening International (FAO HQ) assess situation • forecast (short-medium) • advise surveys • monthly bulletins interim updates warnings 3/9

Desert Locust information flow International - FAO Desert Locust Information Service ( RAMSES data

Desert Locust information flow International - FAO Desert Locust Information Service ( RAMSES data files, reports ) National - Locust Control Centre ( forms, e. Locust data files ) Field - survey and control teams 4/9

Current Desert Locust situation / forecast 18 Oct 2004 Tunisia Morocco Spring 2005 breeding

Current Desert Locust situation / forecast 18 Oct 2004 Tunisia Morocco Spring 2005 breeding Libya Algeria Western Sahara Mauritania Mali Cape Verde Niger Chad Senegal Gambia G. Bissau Guinea bands Burkina Faso swarms invading swarms 5/9

The situation on the ground. . . 6/9

The situation on the ground. . . 6/9

Meteorological data and Desert Locust Data Actual Forecast Use Rainfall total daily decadal monthly

Meteorological data and Desert Locust Data Actual Forecast Use Rainfall total daily decadal monthly +1 day +10 day +30 day seasonal breeding migration Temperature min/max daily decadal monthly +1 day +10 day +30 day seasonal maturation migration Wind direction speed height 12 h migration 7/9

Weather thresholds Rain 25 mm in two consecutive months Temp > 17°C (copulating &

Weather thresholds Rain 25 mm in two consecutive months Temp > 17°C (copulating & laying) > 15 -26°C (take-off) > 9 -17°C (sustained flight) varies if solitary/gregarious locusts Wind < 7 m/s (take-off) < 1800 m (flight heights) 8/9

Current weaknesses • • • poor rain station coverage Potential solutions Ø increase rains

Current weaknesses • • • poor rain station coverage Potential solutions Ø increase rains stations national station data incomplete / errors Ø reduce transmission errors LCC does not make use of data weak LCC / NMS link Ø indicate data requirements Ø regional workshop FAO/DLIS does not use forecast products Ø use forecast products 9/9