Mentored by Barron Orr Ph D Mark Apel

Mentored by: Barron Orr, Ph. D, Mark Apel, and Erik Glenn in collaboration with: Office of Arid Lands Studies

Land Transformation in the West “Old West” land use values of agriculture, ranching and mining… …are making way for a “New West” land values of… …recreation & leisure, amenity wildlife, and exurbanization.

Exurbanization? • Exurbanization can be broadly defined as large-scale permanent settlement by urban people in non-metropolitan areas beyond typical suburban commuting distances. • Exurban areas are the fastest growing type of residential development in the United States. • It is especially dramatic in this region, fundamentally defining the ‘New West’ Atlas of the New West: Portrait of a Changing Region, 1997 (Riebsame & Robb)

Percent Change in Resident Population (2000 -2005) Nevada led the nation with 20. 8%. Arizona was next at 15. 8% growth.

Where Will the Population Be? • From 1982 to 1997, the total amount of developed land in the West grew by 2 million acres, or about half an acre person, through conversion of agricultural land, forest, and natural open space. • Arizona is no exception, more than doubling its population and tripling its employment between 1969 and 2003. • Most projections suggest this will continue. Arizona: Developed Acres Source: Center of the American West (http: //www. centerwest. org/)

Mapping Past and Future Development The projections illustrate continued suburban and exurban spread, as well as low -density development in resort areas. Western Futures http: //www. centerwest. org/futures/archive/

Exurban Development: Cochise County Western Futures http: //www. centerwest. org/futures/archive/ • Following Western trend of exurban growth • “Wildcat” development in exurban areas. . .

Wildcat Development? • “Wildcat Development” : Unregulated lot splits in un-subdivided areas; current state statutes allow parcels to be split up to five times without undergoing a subdivision process or improvement requirements. . . Why does “wildcat” development matter. . . ?

Potential Impact on the County • Encouragement of sprawl • Environmental degradation • Loss of access to public lands and open spaces • Strain on public services: fire, water. . . facilities: schools. . . , infrastructure: roads, utilities. . . • “Inadequacies” passed on to the county, to taxpayers. . .

Fiscal Implications of Wildcat Development • Maeveen Beehan, Ph. D • John Regan, GISP, CPM • Findings: Wildcat development cannot contribute enough to the tax base to make up for its service demands!! http: //www. pima. gov/cmo/sdcp/reports/d 18/089 DIS. PDF

What is the impact of wildcat development on Cochise County revenue?

Three Canyons Study Area Cochise County Three Canyons Study Area Vicinity, South of Sierra Vista Western Futures http: //www. centerwest. org/futures/archive/

Study Components • Assessed “Total Full Cash Value (TFCV)” The value that is taxed by the County to determine revenue. . . Lower Assessments = Less tax revenue Higher Assessments = More tax revenue

Apples to Apples • Comparison of Assessed TFCV of custom homes or single family residences on parcels > 5 acres in formally subdivided and lot split developments • Same Home Owners Association (HOA), Codes, Covenants, and Restrictions (CCNRs) = Uniformity

Characteristics and “Use Codes” Custom Homes • 2400 -4000 square feet • Interior walls • Built to owner’s specifications • 7 -11 rooms Formally Subdivided Use Code: 0153 Lot Split Use Code: 0154 Single Family Residences • Parcels > 5 acres Use Code: 8714

Three Canyons Developments Subdivided Vista del Oro Wildhorse II Los Ranchos Deer Ridge La Pradera Covey Run Lot Split Valley Vista Fairfield Estates Miscellaneous

Use Code Filter Developments Subdivided Vista del Oro Wildhorse II Los Ranchos Deer Ridge La Pradera Covey Run Lot Split Valley Vista Fairfield Estates Miscellaneous Use Code Filtered Parcels

Lowest Assessed Value Developments Subdivided Vista del Oro Wildhorse II Los Ranchos Deer Ridge La Pradera Covey Run Lot Split Valley Vista Fairfield Estates Miscellaneous Lowest Assessed Value Parcels

Highest Assessed Value Developments Subdivided Vista del Oro Wildhorse II Los Ranchos Deer Ridge La Pradera Covey Run Lot Split Valley Vista Fairfield Estates Miscellaneous Highest Assessed Value Parcels

Implications • Land use policies in Cochise County, and throughout the West, should account for the impacts of exurban and lot split development; • sticking with status quo policies that permit lot split development and uninhibited exurban expansion will result in the continued loss of revenue to the county.