Megatrends en transities Europas langetermijn milieu en klimaatbeleid

Megatrends en transities: Europa’s langetermijn milieu en klimaatbeleid 18 December 2015 – Megatrends Conference, Brussels Presentation by Dr. Hans Bruyninckx, Executive Director, EEA

The European Environment Agency SYNTHESIS REPORT The EEA is an EU agency that operates at the interface of science and policy. With a network of more than 300 institutions in 39 European countries, the EEA provides timely, reliable and relevant information to support sustainable development. EEA work is targeted at EU institutions, EEA member countries, civil society and the general public. GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRY COMPARISONS COUNTRIES & REGIONS

The European environment – state and outlook 2015 (SOER 2015) SYNTHESIS REPORT GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRY COMPARISONS A comprehensive assessment of past trends and future outlooks. SOER 2015 informs policy implementation and reflects on opportunities to recalibrate policies, knowledge, investments and innovations in line with the 2050 vision of the 7 th EAP. SOER 2015 Synthesis report SOER 2015 Assessment of global megatrends Global megatrends European briefings Cross-country comparisons Countries and regions 11 briefings 25 briefings 9 briefings 39+3 briefings COUNTRIES & REGIONS

The policy context SYNTHESIS REPORT GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRY COMPARISONS COUNTRIES & REGIONS SUSTAINABILITY 2050 Halt biodiversity loss 20 -20 -20 targets => 2030 Circular Economy SDG Acquis WFD targets Fisheries below MSY MDGs 2014 -2018 Vision in 7 th EAP Reduce GHG 80 -95 % Zero impacts (air) 2020/2030 TIME

Vision of the 7 th Environment Action Programme SYNTHESIS REPORT GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRY COMPARISONS ‘In 2050, we live well, within the planet's ecological limits. Our prosperity and healthy environment stem from an innovative, circular economy where nothing is wasted and where natural resources are managed sustainably, and biodiversity is protected, valued and restored in ways that enhance our society's resilience. Our low-carbon growth has long been decoupled from resource use, setting the pace for a global safe and sustainable society. ’ Source: 7 th EU Environment Action Programme COUNTRIES & REGIONS

Sustainability revisited SYNTHESIS REPORT GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS Social Sustainable development? Of course not! COUNTRY COMPARISONS COUNTRIES & REGIONS Environment Economy

Living well, within environmental limits SYNTHESIS REPORT GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRY COMPARISONS COUNTRIES & REGIONS

Synthesis report Integrated assessment of environmental trends BACK TO TABLE OF CONTENTS 01 Part 1 Setting the scene: The context for European environmental policy, and the global megatrends that directly and indirectly affect Europe’s environment. Part 2 Assessing European trends: The trends and outlook for 20 environmental issues grouped under the 3 priority objectives of the 7 th Environment Action Programme. Part 3 Looking ahead: The overall picture of the European environment’s state and outlook, and opportunities to support the transition to a more sustainable society. Protecting, conserving and enhancing natural capital Resource efficiency and the low-carbon economy Safeguarding from environmental risks to health Terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity Material resource efficiency and material use Water pollution and related environmental health risks Land use and soil functions Waste management Air pollution and related environmental health risks Ecological status of freshwater bodies Greenhouse gas emissions and climate change mitigation Noise pollution (especially in urban areas) Water quality and nutrient loading Energy consumption and fossil fuel use Urban systems and grey infrastructure Air pollution and its ecosystem impacts Transport demand related environmental impacts Climate change and related environmental health risks Marine and coastal biodiversity Industrial pollution to air, soil and water Chemicals and related environmental health risks Climate change impacts on ecosystems Water use and water quantity stress

Key messages from SOER 2015 SYNTHESIS REPORT GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRY COMPARISONS COUNTRIES & REGIONS • Policies have delivered substantial benefits for the environment, economy and people’s well-being; major challenges remain • Europe faces persistent and emerging challenges linked to production and consumption systems, and the rapidly changing global context © Daniel Danko, Environment & Me /EEA • Achieving the 2050 vision requires system transitions, driven by more ambitious actions on policy, knowledge, investments and innovation • Doing so presents major opportunities to boost Europe’s economy and employment and put Europe at the frontier of science and innovation

Thematic priority objective 1: Protecting, conserving and enhancing natural capital SYNTHESIS REPORT GLOBAL MEGATRENDS Past (5– 10 year) trends EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRY COMPARISONS 20+ years outlook COUNTRIES & REGIONS Progress to policy targets Terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity Land use and soil functions No target Ecological status of freshwater bodies Water quality and nutrient loading Air pollution and its ecosystem impacts Marine and coastal biodiversity Climate change impacts on ecosystems No target Improving trends dominate Largely on track Trends show mixed picture Partially on track Deteriorating trends dominate Largely not on track Source: EEA. SOER 2015 Synthesis report.

Thematic priority objective 2: Resource efficiency and the low-carbon economy SYNTHESIS REPORT GLOBAL MEGATRENDS Past (5– 10 year) trends EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRY COMPARISONS 20+ years outlook Material resource efficiency and material use COUNTRIES & REGIONS Progress to policy targets No target Waste management Greenhouse gas emissions and climate change mitigation / Energy consumption and fossil fuel use Transport demand related environmental impacts Industrial pollution to air, soil and water Water use and water quantity stress Improving trends dominate Largely on track Trends show mixed picture Partially on track Deteriorating trends dominate Largely not on track Source: EEA. SOER 2015 Synthesis report.

Thematic priority objective 3: Safeguarding from environmental risks to health SYNTHESIS REPORT GLOBAL MEGATRENDS Past (5– 10 year) trends EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRY COMPARISONS 20+ years outlook COUNTRIES & REGIONS Progress to policy targets / Water pollution and related environmental health risks Air pollution and related environmental health risks Noise pollution (especially in urban areas) / Urban systems and grey infrastructure No target Climate change and related environmental health risks No target Chemicals and related environmental health risks / Improving trends dominate Largely on track Trends show mixed picture Partially on track Deteriorating trends dominate Largely not on track Source: EEA. SOER 2015 Synthesis report.

The overall picture: Efficiency improvements have not secured long-term resilience SYNTHESIS REPORT Resource efficiency and the low-carbon economy Protecting, conserving and enhancing natural capital Past (5– 10) year trends 20+ years outlook GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRY COMPARISONS COUNTRIES & REGIONS Safeguarding from environmental risks to health / Improving trends dominate Trends show mixed picture Deteriorating trends dominate Source: EEA. SOER 2015 Synthesis report.

Understanding past trends and future outlooks SYNTHESIS REPORT GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRY COMPARISONS Two major factors explain the uneven progress and prospects: 1. The changing global context © Ana Skobe, Environment & Me /EEA • • • Competition for resources Pressures from outside Europe Planetary boundaries 2. Systemic characteristics of environmental challenges • • • Complexity Uncertainty Environmental, social and economic interdependencies COUNTRIES & REGIONS

BACK TO TABLE OF CONTENTS Global megatrends 02 Setting the scene Diverging global population trends Intensified global competition for resources Towards a more urban world Growing pressures on ecosystems Changing disease burdens and risks of pandemics Increasingly severe consequences of climate change Accelerating technological change Continued economic growth? An increasingly multipolar world Increasing environmental pollution Diversifying approaches to governance

SOER 2015 / Global megatrends / Setting the scene What are global megatrends? SYNTHESIS REPORT GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRY COMPARISONS COUNTRIES & REGIONS © NASA Earth Observatory • Global megatrends = – large-scale – high impact – often interdependent – social, economic, political, environmental or technological changes. • Europe’s ecological and societal resilience will be increasingly affected by those global driving forces. • This increasing interdependence presents many challenges but also many opportunities for Europe to shape its future. Related content

The changing global context Global megatrends affect Europe’s resource needs SYNTHESIS REPORT GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRY COMPARISONS COUNTRIES & REGIONS Population Technology Economy Environment Governance Related content …. global megatrends strongly impact Europe’s ability to meet its basic resource needs in the coming decades

The changing global context Diverging global population trends • • Growing population, but at a slower rate Asia, Africa (!) on the rise Older Migration Related content (UN, 2013) SYNTHESIS REPORT GLOBAL MEGATRENDS 43 % EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRY COMPARISONS COUNTRIES & REGIONS . . . growth of the global population by 2050

SOER 2015 / Global megatrends / Towards a more urban world GO TO ONLINE BRIEFING Towards a more urban world SYNTHESIS REPORT GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRY COMPARISONS COUNTRIES & REGIONS • Urban areas in developing countries will absorb most of the global population increase, with 67% of people living in cities by 2050. • Most of the growth is expected to be in megacities • Compact cities are the most efficient and environmentally sustainable © Adela Nistora, Environment & Me /EEA • Urban growth is driving land-use change in Europe • Integrated urban management could increase the environmental resilience of Europe’s cities, particularly in the east and south. Related content

SOER 2015 / Global megatrends / Towards a more urban world By 2050, 67% of the world population is expected to live in cities SYNTHESIS REPORT GLOBAL MEGATRENDS Urban and rural population in developed and less developed world regions, 1950– 2050 Related content Source: UN World urbanization prospects: The 2012 revision. EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRY COMPARISONS COUNTRIES & REGIONS

The changing global context Growing urban middle class Share of middle class consumers SYNTHESIS REPORT GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRY COMPARISONS The global middle class • Expected growth from 1. 8 billion in 2010 to 4. 9 billion by 2030, with Asia accounting for 85 % of that growth 170 % . . . growth of the global middle class by 2030 • Challenge: rapidly growing burden of resource use and pollution Related content (Brookings Institution, 2012) COUNTRIES & REGIONS

The changing global context Continued economic growth? SYNTHESIS REPORT GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRY COMPARISONS COUNTRIES & REGIONS In the period 2010 -205 global GDP is expected to grow by… 300 % Related content (OECD, 2014)

The changing global context Intensified global competition for resources SYNTHESIS REPORT GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS • World materials use has grown 10 -fold since 1900 • European economy structurally dependent on imports of raw materials Related content (Krausmann et al. , 2009) COUNTRY COMPARISONS COUNTRIES & REGIONS

World resource use is expected to at least double in the next three decades SYNTHESIS REPORT GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRY COMPARISONS COUNTRIES & REGIONS 200. 0 180. 0 160. 0 140. 0 120. 0 Metals Fossil fuels 100. 0 Minerals 80. 0 Biomass © Ana Skobe, Environment & Me /EEA 60. 0 40. 0 20. 0 1980 1990 2008 2010* Souce: SERI (2013): SERI Global Material Flows Database. 2013 Edition. Available at: www. materialflows. net 2020* 2030* 2040* 2050*

The changing global context Intensified global competition for resources SYNTHESIS REPORT GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS Proportion of global production of EU critical raw materials within a single country, 2010– 2012 Related content (EC, 2014) COUNTRY COMPARISONS COUNTRIES & REGIONS

SOER 2015 / Global megatrends / Accelerating technological change GO TO ONLINE BRIEFING Accelerating technological change © Keith Arkins, Environment & Me /EEA SYNTHESIS REPORT GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRY COMPARISONS COUNTRIES & REGIONS • The pace of technological change, particularly in the fields of information, communication, nano- and bio-technologies, is unprecedented. • This provides opportunities to reduce humanity’s impact on the environment and reliance on non-renewable natural resources. • The risks and uncertainties associated with technological innovation can be managed using regulatory frameworks and the precautionary principle. • By recalibrating its institutions, policies and environmental knowledge base, Europe can support better risk management, while enhancing innovation and the diffusion of new technologies. Related content

SOER 2015 / Global megatrends / Growing pressures on ecosystems GO TO ONLINE BRIEFING Growing pressures on ecosystems SYNTHESIS REPORT EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRY COMPARISONS COUNTRIES & REGIONS • The demands of a growing global population with rapidly changing consumption patterns for food, mobility and energy are exerting everincreasing pressure on the Earth's ecosystems and their life-supporting services. • In combination with climate change, these changes raise concerns about current meat-heavy diets, water use and strategies for bioenergy production. • Exacerbated by climate change and continued pollution, rates of global habitat destruction and biodiversity loss are predicted to increase, including in Europe. • Continued degradation of global ecosystems and their services will influence poverty and inequality, potentially driving increased migration. Related content © CIFOR GLOBAL MEGATRENDS

SOER 2015 / Global megatrends / Growing pressures on ecosystems Global biodiversity loss will continue, with the strongest impacts on poor people in developing countries SYNTHESIS REPORT Terrestrial mean species abundance, 2010– 2050 Related content Source: OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050. GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRY COMPARISONS COUNTRIES & REGIONS

SOER 2015 / Global megatrends / Growing pressures on ecosystems The ever rising pressure on the Earth’s ecosystems is fuelled by meat consumption and bioenergy demand SYNTHESIS REPORT Transnational land acquisition, 2005– 2009 Related content Source: Rulli et al. , 2013. GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRY COMPARISONS COUNTRIES & REGIONS

SOER 2015 / Global megatrends / Increasingly severe consequences of climate change GO TO ONLINE BRIEFING Increasingly severe consequences of climate change © Manuela Aldeghi, Environment & Me /EEA SYNTHESIS REPORT GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRY COMPARISONS COUNTRIES & REGIONS • Recent changes in the global climate are unprecedented over millennia and will continue. • Climate change is expected increasingly to threaten natural ecosystems and biodiversity, slow economic growth, erode global food security, harm human health and increase inequality. • The risks of pervasive and irreversible impacts are expected to increase. They could, however, be reduced by further emissions abatement and adaptation measures, building on past actions in Europe and internationally. • Key risks for Europe include flood events, droughts and other weather extremes that damage ecosystems and biodiversity, as well as infrastructure and human well-being. Related content Climate change impacts on ecosystems Water use and water stress Urban systems and grey infrastructure Climate change & related envi. health risks Climate change impacts and adaptation

SOER 2015 / Global megatrends / Increasingly severe consequences of climate change Global temperature increases of 4 C or more by 2100 would create significant risks to global food security SYNTHESIS REPORT GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRY COMPARISONS COUNTRIES & REGIONS Projected change in global aggregate crop yields due to climate change, 2010– 2109 Source: IPPC, 2014. Related content Climate change impacts on ecosystems Water use and water stress Urban systems and grey infrastructure Climate change & related envi. health risks Climate change impacts and adaptation

SOER 2015 / Global megatrends / Increasing environmental pollution GO TO ONLINE BRIEFING Increasing environmental pollution © Jonathan Díaz Marbá, Environment & Me /EEA SYNTHESIS REPORT GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRY COMPARISONS COUNTRIES & REGIONS • Globally, levels of air pollution and releases of nutrients from agriculture and wastewater remain high, causing acidification and eutrophication in ecosystems, and losses in agricultural yield. • In the coming decades, overall pollution levels are projected to increase strongly, particularly in Asia. • Although Europe’s pollutant releases are expected to continue declining, European ecosystems and citizens are likely to be affected by developments in other regions. • For example, despite a fall in air pollutant emissions there has not been an equivalent improvement in air quality across Europe, partly as a result of the transboundary transport of air pollutants. Related content Air pollution & its ecosystem impacts Industrial pollution to air, soil and water Air pollution & related envi. health risks Air pollution

The Changing global context Changing disease burdens and risks of pandemics SYNTHESIS REPORT 25 % Urban air pollution: main environmental cause of premature mortality worldwide in 2050 Climate change is likely to Related content exacerbate this GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRY COMPARISONS COUNTRIES & REGIONS . . . of the global burden of disease and deaths can be attributed to environmental causes (mostly PM, ozone) (OECD, 2012)

SOER 2015 / Global megatrends / Diversifying approaches to governance GO TO ONLINE BRIEFING Diversifying approaches to governance SYNTHESIS REPORT EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRY COMPARISONS COUNTRIES & REGIONS • In the context of rapid globalisation, governments are facing a mismatch between the increasingly long-term, global, systemic challenges facing society and their more national and short-term focus and powers. • The need for more coordinated governance at the global scale has been reflected in the proliferation of international environmental agreements, particularly during the 1990 s. • More recently, businesses and civil society have also taken an increasing role in governance. • This broadening of approaches is welcome but it raises concerns about coordination and effectiveness, as well as accountability and transparency. Related content © Alan Kotok GLOBAL MEGATRENDS GHG emissions & CC mitigation Mitigating climate change

The changing global context What can we conclude? SYNTHESIS REPORT GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRY COMPARISONS COUNTRIES & REGIONS • Boundaries between developments in Europe and other parts of the world are growing more blurred. • Europe’s success in achieving its environmental, social and economic goals will depend on its ability to respond to the long-term and global contexts. • Europeans have two main clusters of response options: • Seek to shape global change in ways that mitigate and manage risks, and create opportunities (e. g. unilateral and multilateral efforts to mitigate environmental pressures, etc. ). • Find ways to adapt to global trends (e. g. seeking to anticipate and avoid harm by increasing the resilience of social, environmental and economic systems, etc). Related content

Global systems of production and consumption need to be reconfigured SYNTHESIS REPORT GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRY COMPARISONS COUNTRIES & REGIONS Within environmental limits (Global Footprint Network, 2012; UNDP, 2014) ‘good life’

Vision of the 7 th Environment Action Programme SYNTHESIS REPORT GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRY COMPARISONS ‘In 2050, we live well, within the planet's ecological limits. Our prosperity and healthy environment stem from an innovative, circular economy where nothing is wasted and where natural resources are managed sustainably, and biodiversity is protected, valued and restored in ways that enhance our society's resilience. Our low-carbon growth has long been decoupled from resource use, setting the pace for a global safe and sustainable society. ’ Source: 7 th EU Environment Action Programme COUNTRIES & REGIONS

Systemic environmental challenges require systemic solutions SYNTHESIS REPORT GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRY COMPARISONS COUNTRIES & REGIONS Not just incremental efficiency gains Source: Tesla but fundamental transitions in food, energy, mobility, urban, finance and fiscal systems through profound changes in dominant practices, policies and thinking.

Cars are more efficient but contribute to a range of negative impacts on people’s quality of life in cities SYNTHESIS REPORT GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRY COMPARISONS COUNTRIES & REGIONS

Homes are now more energy efficient, but also much larger, increasing pressures on land, water and materials SYNTHESIS REPORT Source: SCP 023 indicator (draft) GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRY COMPARISONS COUNTRIES & REGIONS

From challenge to response SYNTHESIS REPORT GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRY COMPARISONS COUNTRIES & REGIONS The EU policy and related activities offer a strong basis for action: • 7 EAP enabling objectives (implementation, innovation, investment, information) • Circular economy package • Raw Materials Initiative • EU climate policy • Sustainable Development Goals

Personal reflections on the outcome of COP 21 SYNTHESIS REPORT - 2° (and 1, 5°!) - 2100 perspective - Global - Binding © Victor Troyanov, Environment & Me /EEA - MRV - Deep and fast changes - Level playing field GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRY COMPARISONS COUNTRIES & REGIONS

Rapid system change and megatrends • Internet since 1994 • Obesity in the US 2

Obesity Trends* Among U. S. Adults BRFSS, 1985 (*BMI ≥ 30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%– 14%

Obesity Trends* Among U. S. Adults BRFSS, 1986 (*BMI ≥ 30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%– 14%

Obesity Trends* Among U. S. Adults BRFSS, 1987 (*BMI ≥ 30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%– 14%

Obesity Trends* Among U. S. Adults BRFSS, 1988 (*BMI ≥ 30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%– 14%

Obesity Trends* Among U. S. Adults BRFSS, 1989 (*BMI ≥ 30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%– 14%

Obesity Trends* Among U. S. Adults BRFSS, 1990 (*BMI ≥ 30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%– 14%

Obesity Trends* Among U. S. Adults BRFSS, 1991 (*BMI ≥ 30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%– 14% 15%– 19%

Obesity Trends* Among U. S. Adults BRFSS, 1992 (*BMI ≥ 30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%– 14% 15%– 19%

Obesity Trends* Among U. S. Adults BRFSS, 1993 (*BMI ≥ 30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%– 14% 15%– 19%

Obesity Trends* Among U. S. Adults BRFSS, 1994 (*BMI ≥ 30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%– 14% 15%– 19%

Obesity Trends* Among U. S. Adults BRFSS, 1995 (*BMI ≥ 30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%– 14% 15%– 19%

Obesity Trends* Among U. S. Adults BRFSS, 1996 (*BMI ≥ 30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%– 14% 15%– 19%

Obesity Trends* Among U. S. Adults BRFSS, 1997 (*BMI ≥ 30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%– 14% 15%– 19% ≥ 20%

Obesity Trends* Among U. S. Adults BRFSS, 1998 (*BMI ≥ 30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%– 14% 15%– 19% ≥ 20%

Obesity Trends* Among U. S. Adults BRFSS, 1999 (*BMI ≥ 30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%– 14% 15%– 19% ≥ 20%

Obesity Trends* Among U. S. Adults BRFSS, 2000 (*BMI ≥ 30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%– 14% 15%– 19% ≥ 20%

Obesity Trends* Among U. S. Adults BRFSS, 2001 (*BMI ≥ 30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%– 14% 15%– 19% 20%– 24% ≥ 25%

Obesity Trends* Among U. S. Adults BRFSS, 2002 (*BMI ≥ 30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%– 14% 15%– 19% 20%– 24% ≥ 25%

Obesity Trends* Among U. S. Adults BRFSS, 2003 (*BMI ≥ 30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%– 14% 15%– 19% 20%– 24% ≥ 25%

Obesity Trends* Among U. S. Adults BRFSS, 2004 (*BMI ≥ 30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%– 14% 15%– 19% 20%– 24% ≥ 25%

Obesity Trends* Among U. S. Adults BRFSS, 2005 (*BMI ≥ 30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%– 14% 29% ≥ 30% 15%– 19% 20%– 24% 25%–

Obesity Trends* Among U. S. Adults BRFSS, 2006 (*BMI ≥ 30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%– 14% 29% ≥ 30% 15%– 19% 20%– 24% 25%–

Obesity Trends* Among U. S. Adults BRFSS, 2007 (*BMI ≥ 30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%– 14% 29% ≥ 30% 15%– 19% 20%– 24% 25%–

Obesity Trends* Among U. S. Adults BRFSS, 2008 (*BMI ≥ 30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%– 14% 29% ≥ 30% 15%– 19% 20%– 24% 25%–

Obesity Trends* Among U. S. Adults BRFSS, 2009 (*BMI ≥ 30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%– 14% 29% ≥ 30% 15%– 19% 20%– 24% 25%–

Obesity Trends* Among U. S. Adults BRFSS, 2010 (*BMI ≥ 30, or ~ 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) No Data <10% 10%– 14% 29% ≥ 30% 15%– 19% 20%– 24% 25%–

Obesity Trends* Among U. S. Adults BRFSS, 1990, 2000, 2010 (*BMI 30, or about 30 lbs. overweight for 5’ 4” person) 2000 1990 2010 No Data <10% 10%– 14% 29% ≥ 30% 15%– 19% 20%– 24% 25%–

40 jaar kennisopbouw SYNTHESIS REPORT GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRY COMPARISONS §Evolutie in probleemdefinitie en kennisbenadering § § Zware industriële pollutie Single issues DPSIR denken Systeembenaderingen: probleemanalyse; denkkaders; oplossingen §Evolutie in disciplinaire interesse § § Chemici, biologen, ingenieurs Economen, geneeskundigen, geografen, geologen Bestuurskundigen, ruimtelijke ordeners, juristen, filosofen Psychologen, historici, … COUNTRIES & REGIONS

Toekomstgerichte kennisontwikkeling SYNTHESIS REPORT § § GLOBAL MEGATRENDS EUROPEAN BRIEFINGS COUNTRY COMPARISONS COUNTRIES & REGIONS Langetermijndenken Systeembenadering Betekenis van limieten in denken, onderzoek en praktijk? Methodologisch? Scenario’s, future’s studies, forcasting/sight, back-casting, distance to target, gap analysis, cost/benefit analysis 2. 0 § Onzekerheden, non-lineariteit § Niches, innovatie, R&D § Sterke aandacht voor lock-ins, backlash, breakdown risks

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