Mega Trend Recent Mobile Handset Sales Trend million
Mega Trend Recent Mobile Handset Sales Trend (million units) Market Dynamics Triggers User Economic overhang reduced usage and spend patterns of existing customers Vendor operators' refocus on financial performance Key trend Lowering replacement demands Reduction of handset subsidy increased churn increased bad debt levels • Anticipated slowing subscriber growth in key market • Weak replacement demand Unexpected high • Inventory adjustment penetration levels delays in the ramp of data services anticipated slowing subscriber growth in key markets Lowering net additional demands Source: Lehman Brothers (Sept 2001) 1
Mega Trend Net Increase Rate IT service/product Demand Scenario 1: rebound to similar level to two years ago Scenario 2: rebound to similar level to last 10 years moving average Scenario 3: rebound but not recover to last years’ growth rate Scenario 4: not yet 98 00말 01말 2
Worldwide Mobile Telecom Trend Worldwide Subscriber Growth by Region Thousand person 3
Worldwide Mobile Telecom Trend Number of mobile subscribers vs. penetration rate (FY 00) New Subscribers Through Market Saturation by Region Cellular penetration(%) Finland Taiwan Singapore Hong Kong Netherlands Italy UK Switzerland. South Korea Australia (W. Europe) 41 (CALA) (E. Europe) 258 196 (Asia/Pacific) 1, 890 (N. America) 107 (Middle East) 106 Germany France Japan USA (Africa) 370 Malaysia Philippines Eastern Europe South America Thailand China e shows the total number of new subscribers (and implies the total number of handsets from new subscriber additions) available from all of the regions i No. of cellular subscribers(m) Source: Lehman Brothers (Sept 2001) 4
Worldwide Mobile Telecom Trend Worldwide Mobile Handset Sales Trend and Forecast (million units) Net Additions ADL Comment Replacement • Industry analyst predict that the downturn is a temporary phenomenon caused by oversupply of handsets, decreases in operator’s handset subsidies as well as delays in next-generation deployment • Based on research analyst consensus, the worldwide mobile handset market is expected to grow with CAGR of 15% annually by increase of mobile replacement caused by network and service upgrade as well as fast growth of China market 5
Worldwide Mobile Telecom Trend GPRS Launch Plans Operator Region W. Europe Airtel W. Europe Blu W. Europe BT Cellnet Asia/Pacific C&W Optus W. Europe Cosmote W. Europe di. Ax W. Europe Europolitan Asia/Pacific Fujian Mobile Asia/Pacific KG Telecom Libertel Vodafone. W. Europe Asia/Pacific M 1 W. Europe max mobil W. Europe Mobikom W. Europe Mobistar W. Europe Panafon Asia/Pacific PCCW E. Europe PTL Centertel W. Europe Radiolinja Asia/Pacific Smar Tone W. Europe Sonera W. Europe tele. ring W. Europe Telefonica E. Europe Telsim Asia/Pacific Telstra W. Europe TIM (Telecom Italia) W. Europe TMN W. Europe T-Mobile W. Europe Vodafone Anticipated GPRS Phones in the 2 H 2001 Country Spain Italy UK australia Greece Swizerland Sweden China Taiwan Netherlands Singapore Austria Belgium Greece Hong Kong Poland Finland Hong Kong Finland Austria Spain Turkey Australia Italy Portugal Germany. UK Source: Saloman Smith Barney (2001) Network Launch Date Commercial Service Launch Date Vendor May-01 Dec-00 Jun-00 Apr-00 Mar-01 Sep-00 Mar-00 Aug-00 Sep-0 Apr-01 Nov-00 Apr-01 Aug-00 Feb-01 Mar-01 Nov-00 Oct-00 2 Q-01 May-00 Dec-00 Jan-01 Aug-00 Mar-01 May-01 Nov-00 Jun-00 Apr-01 Jun-01 TBD May-01 Sep-00 Oct-01 Aug-01 3 Q/4 Q-01 TBD Jun-01 TBD Aug-01 Jul-01 Aug-01 Oct-01 Nov-00 TBD 3 Q/4 Q-01 Jul-00 3 Q/4 Q-01 Aug-01 Jun-01 TBD Summer-01 Jul-01 Aug-01 Jul-01 Model Intro. Date Alcatel 702 Q 4 2001 Ericsson Matsushita (Panasonic) Matsushita (Trium) Motorola Motorola Nokia Philips R 502 Q 2 2001 T 39 R 68 GD 95 Geo GPRS Mondo P 73891 Accompli 008 Accompli 009 V. 120 V. 66 Talkabout 192 8310 6310 Fisco 611 Q 3 2001 Q 4 2001 Mid-2001 Q 1 2001 Available Q 2 2001 Q 3 2001 Q 3 2001 Q 4 2001 Q 1 2001 Sagem Samsung Siemens Fisco 612 MC 959 SGH-Q 100 MC 35 Available Q 2 2001 Q 3 2001 6
Worldwide Mobile Telecom Trend 구분 스마트폰/WAP 폰 스마트폰/WAP폰 PDA 3 G Laptop 3 G Web Tablet Multi. 단말기 Input Touchpad Keypad, Pen Voice Keypad, Pen Touchpad, Voice Feature 휴대전화보다 약간 큼 소형 輕薄형 기술발전에 따라 소형/경량화 잡지 크기 형태 카메라, 고선명/고화질 비디오스크린 Power Consumption 낮음 낮음 중간 낮음 (Always-on) 중간 Display Full Color Small, Flat Full Color High Resolution Full Color Flat Panel Full Color Collapsible Screen Graphic 제한적 가능(2001) 가능 가능 가능 Video 애니메이션 수준 가능 가능 불가능 가능 Voice 가능 가능 가능 Time to emergence 2000~2005 2000~2006 2004 2005~2010 Source : UMTS Forum ’ 00. 10 8
Worldwide Mobile Telecom Trend Terminal 다양화 서비스 다양화 Computing기능 (CPU처리능력, Memory용량)보완 Memory Power Target Devices 구분 현재 • 주식거래 M-Commerce • 예약/복권 • 계좌조회/이체 Communi cation Information • SMS • e-Mail/Chatting (n. TOP연계만 가능) 향후 • P 2 P(Person to Person) • 쇼핑 • IBS(종합금융서비스 : 전자지불/결제 등) • 캐릭터/벨소리 다운로드 Entertainment • 게임 다운로드 • 노래방 서비스 Mobile Office • Intranet Laptops Handheld PC Multimedia Phone 멀티미디어 기능보완 • UMS (Unified Messaging Service) CD-MP 3 • MMS (Multimedia Messaging Service) • • 교통정보(Text/음성) • • PIMS • • 뉴스 • 주변지역정보/ PC 동영상 뉴스/스포츠 중계 종합위치정보 서비스(LBS) 교통정보(동영상) e-Book • VOD, AOD • Network Game • MBS (Multimedia Broadcasting System) • Intranet • Telemetry • Fleet Management Extendable Digital Camera PDAs Electronic Games Smartphone 진화 진화 PIMs 기능 보완 Mobile Handset PDAs Voice+Data Voice Multimedia Devices 통신기능보완 Data Devices Voice Terminal Size & Weight 9
Worldwide Mobile Telecom Trend Emerging Mobile communication market forecast (Unit: Thousands) 166% 86% 73% 12% CAGR 58% 32% Source: ETRI 2000, Dataquest 2000, Garther Consulting, Roland Berger Analysis, Feb. 2001, Forrester Research , Samsung Electronics Data, Industry Expert Interview, ADL Analysis 10
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