MEG DISCUSSION Cloud Cover and Visibility Findings from
![MEG DISCUSSION Cloud Cover and Visibility Findings from the RAPv 5/HRRRv 4 Evaluation This MEG DISCUSSION Cloud Cover and Visibility Findings from the RAPv 5/HRRRv 4 Evaluation This](https://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image_h2/2f8bb4f710220154f2e4cdcba43a2195/image-1.jpg)
MEG DISCUSSION Cloud Cover and Visibility Findings from the RAPv 5/HRRRv 4 Evaluation This presentation mainly shows graphics from 12 Z 11/5/19 cycle, but is representative of 11/4/19 -11/8/19 week Shannon Shields November 21, 2019
![Comparison Graphics for Real-Time Parallels https: //www. emc. ncep. noaa. gov/users/meg/rapv 5_hrrrv 4/comp/ 2 Comparison Graphics for Real-Time Parallels https: //www. emc. ncep. noaa. gov/users/meg/rapv 5_hrrrv 4/comp/ 2](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image_h2/2f8bb4f710220154f2e4cdcba43a2195/image-2.jpg)
Comparison Graphics for Real-Time Parallels https: //www. emc. ncep. noaa. gov/users/meg/rapv 5_hrrrv 4/comp/ 2
![Physics Development Emphasis: Sub-Grid Clouds Explicit (Resolved) Clouds/Precipitation Sub-Grid (Unresolved) Clouds RAP and HRRR Physics Development Emphasis: Sub-Grid Clouds Explicit (Resolved) Clouds/Precipitation Sub-Grid (Unresolved) Clouds RAP and HRRR](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image_h2/2f8bb4f710220154f2e4cdcba43a2195/image-3.jpg)
Physics Development Emphasis: Sub-Grid Clouds Explicit (Resolved) Clouds/Precipitation Sub-Grid (Unresolved) Clouds RAP and HRRR use the Thompson microphysics scheme with 5 hydrometeor types Adapted from Fig. 2 of Tompkins (2009) Assume a PDF of s (saturation ratio) Retrieve Cloud Fraction, Cloud Condensate Parameterize: assume subgrid PDFs for thermodynamic variables Chaboureau and Bechtold (2002)
![HRRRv 3/v 4 Alaska 11/5/19 HRRRv 3/v 4 Alaska 11/5/19](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image_h2/2f8bb4f710220154f2e4cdcba43a2195/image-4.jpg)
HRRRv 3/v 4 Alaska 11/5/19
![High-level Cloud Cover Initialized: 12 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 0 Z 11/6/19 5 High-level Cloud Cover Initialized: 12 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 0 Z 11/6/19 5](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image_h2/2f8bb4f710220154f2e4cdcba43a2195/image-5.jpg)
High-level Cloud Cover Initialized: 12 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 0 Z 11/6/19 5
![Mid-level Cloud Cover Initialized: 12 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 0 Z 11/6/19 6 Mid-level Cloud Cover Initialized: 12 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 0 Z 11/6/19 6](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image_h2/2f8bb4f710220154f2e4cdcba43a2195/image-6.jpg)
Mid-level Cloud Cover Initialized: 12 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 0 Z 11/6/19 6
![Low-level Cloud Cover Initialized: 12 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 0 Z 11/6/19 There is more Low-level Cloud Cover Initialized: 12 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 0 Z 11/6/19 There is more](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image_h2/2f8bb4f710220154f2e4cdcba43a2195/image-7.jpg)
Low-level Cloud Cover Initialized: 12 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 0 Z 11/6/19 There is more low cloud cover in HRRRv 4 than v 3 which is biggest contribution to total cloud cover (next slide) Comparing to satellite image, HRRRv 4 seems to do better, especially in Bering Sea/Strait 7
![Total Cloud Cover Initialized: 12 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 0 Z 11/6/19 There is more Total Cloud Cover Initialized: 12 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 0 Z 11/6/19 There is more](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image_h2/2f8bb4f710220154f2e4cdcba43a2195/image-8.jpg)
Total Cloud Cover Initialized: 12 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 0 Z 11/6/19 There is more cloud cover in HRRRv 4 than v 3 Comparing to satellite image, HRRRv 4 seems to do better, especially in Bering Sea/Strait 8
![Surface Visibility Initialized: 12 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 0 Z 11/6/19 Reduced sfc visibility over Surface Visibility Initialized: 12 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 0 Z 11/6/19 Reduced sfc visibility over](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image_h2/2f8bb4f710220154f2e4cdcba43a2195/image-9.jpg)
Surface Visibility Initialized: 12 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 0 Z 11/6/19 Reduced sfc visibility over central AK in HRRRv 4 compared to HRRRv 3 9
![Low-level Cloud Cover (Extended) Initialized: 0 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 0 Z 11/6/19 Comparing to Low-level Cloud Cover (Extended) Initialized: 0 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 0 Z 11/6/19 Comparing to](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image_h2/2f8bb4f710220154f2e4cdcba43a2195/image-10.jpg)
Low-level Cloud Cover (Extended) Initialized: 0 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 0 Z 11/6/19 Comparing to satellite image, HRRRv 4 seems to do better 10
![Total Cloud Cover (Extended) Initialized: 0 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 0 Z 11/6/19 Comparing to Total Cloud Cover (Extended) Initialized: 0 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 0 Z 11/6/19 Comparing to](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image_h2/2f8bb4f710220154f2e4cdcba43a2195/image-11.jpg)
Total Cloud Cover (Extended) Initialized: 0 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 0 Z 11/6/19 Comparing to satellite image, HRRRv 4 seems to do better 11
![RAPv 4/v 5 Alaska 11/5/19 RAPv 4/v 5 Alaska 11/5/19](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image_h2/2f8bb4f710220154f2e4cdcba43a2195/image-12.jpg)
RAPv 4/v 5 Alaska 11/5/19
![High-level Cloud Cover Initialized: 12 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 0 Z 11/6/19 13 High-level Cloud Cover Initialized: 12 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 0 Z 11/6/19 13](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image_h2/2f8bb4f710220154f2e4cdcba43a2195/image-13.jpg)
High-level Cloud Cover Initialized: 12 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 0 Z 11/6/19 13
![Mid-level Cloud Cover Initialized: 12 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 0 Z 11/6/19 14 Mid-level Cloud Cover Initialized: 12 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 0 Z 11/6/19 14](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image_h2/2f8bb4f710220154f2e4cdcba43a2195/image-14.jpg)
Mid-level Cloud Cover Initialized: 12 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 0 Z 11/6/19 14
![Low-level Cloud Cover Initialized: 12 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 0 Z 11/6/19 There is more Low-level Cloud Cover Initialized: 12 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 0 Z 11/6/19 There is more](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image_h2/2f8bb4f710220154f2e4cdcba43a2195/image-15.jpg)
Low-level Cloud Cover Initialized: 12 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 0 Z 11/6/19 There is more low cloud cover in RAPv 5 than v 4 Comparing to satellite image, RAPv 5 seems to do better 15
![Total Cloud Cover Initialized: 12 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 0 Z 11/6/19 There is more Total Cloud Cover Initialized: 12 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 0 Z 11/6/19 There is more](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image_h2/2f8bb4f710220154f2e4cdcba43a2195/image-16.jpg)
Total Cloud Cover Initialized: 12 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 0 Z 11/6/19 There is more cloud cover in RAPv 5 than v 4 Comparing to satellite image, RAPv 5 seems to do better 16
![Surface Visibility Initialized: 12 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 0 Z 11/6/19 Mixed signal for RAPv Surface Visibility Initialized: 12 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 0 Z 11/6/19 Mixed signal for RAPv](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image_h2/2f8bb4f710220154f2e4cdcba43a2195/image-17.jpg)
Surface Visibility Initialized: 12 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 0 Z 11/6/19 Mixed signal for RAPv 5 RAPv 4 sfc visibility difference field 17
![Low-level Cloud Cover (Extended) Initialized: 3 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 0 Z 11/6/19 Comparing to Low-level Cloud Cover (Extended) Initialized: 3 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 0 Z 11/6/19 Comparing to](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image_h2/2f8bb4f710220154f2e4cdcba43a2195/image-18.jpg)
Low-level Cloud Cover (Extended) Initialized: 3 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 0 Z 11/6/19 Comparing to satellite image, RAPv 5 seems to do better 18
![Total Cloud Cover (Extended) Initialized: 3 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 0 Z 11/6/19 Comparing to Total Cloud Cover (Extended) Initialized: 3 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 0 Z 11/6/19 Comparing to](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image_h2/2f8bb4f710220154f2e4cdcba43a2195/image-19.jpg)
Total Cloud Cover (Extended) Initialized: 3 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 0 Z 11/6/19 Comparing to satellite image, RAPv 5 seems to do better 19
![RAPv 4/v 5 CONUS 11/5/19 RAPv 4/v 5 CONUS 11/5/19](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image_h2/2f8bb4f710220154f2e4cdcba43a2195/image-20.jpg)
RAPv 4/v 5 CONUS 11/5/19
![High-level Cloud Cover Initialized: 12 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 18 Z 11/5/19 21 High-level Cloud Cover Initialized: 12 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 18 Z 11/5/19 21](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image_h2/2f8bb4f710220154f2e4cdcba43a2195/image-21.jpg)
High-level Cloud Cover Initialized: 12 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 18 Z 11/5/19 21
![Mid-level Cloud Cover Initialized: 12 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 18 Z 11/5/19 22 Mid-level Cloud Cover Initialized: 12 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 18 Z 11/5/19 22](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image_h2/2f8bb4f710220154f2e4cdcba43a2195/image-22.jpg)
Mid-level Cloud Cover Initialized: 12 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 18 Z 11/5/19 22
![Low-level Cloud Cover Initialized: 12 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 18 Z 11/5/19 There is more Low-level Cloud Cover Initialized: 12 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 18 Z 11/5/19 There is more](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image_h2/2f8bb4f710220154f2e4cdcba43a2195/image-23.jpg)
Low-level Cloud Cover Initialized: 12 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 18 Z 11/5/19 There is more low cloud cover in RAPv 5 than v 4 Comparing to satellite image, RAPv 5 seems to do better (West Coast) 23
![Total Cloud Cover Initialized: 12 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 18 Z 11/5/19 There is more Total Cloud Cover Initialized: 12 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 18 Z 11/5/19 There is more](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image_h2/2f8bb4f710220154f2e4cdcba43a2195/image-24.jpg)
Total Cloud Cover Initialized: 12 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 18 Z 11/5/19 There is more cloud cover in RAPv 5 than v 4 Comparing to satellite image, RAPv 5 seems to do better 24
![Surface Visibility Initialized: 12 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 18 Z 11/5/19 Mixed signal for RAPv Surface Visibility Initialized: 12 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 18 Z 11/5/19 Mixed signal for RAPv](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image_h2/2f8bb4f710220154f2e4cdcba43a2195/image-25.jpg)
Surface Visibility Initialized: 12 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 18 Z 11/5/19 Mixed signal for RAPv 5 RAPv 4 sfc visibility difference field overall, but reduced visibility off West Coast is consistent 25
![Surface Visibility Initialized: 12 Z 11/17/19 Valid: 18 Z 11/17/19 Different cycle shows reduced Surface Visibility Initialized: 12 Z 11/17/19 Valid: 18 Z 11/17/19 Different cycle shows reduced](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image_h2/2f8bb4f710220154f2e4cdcba43a2195/image-26.jpg)
Surface Visibility Initialized: 12 Z 11/17/19 Valid: 18 Z 11/17/19 Different cycle shows reduced visibility over CA coast & western CA (consistent from 11/4 -8/19) 26
![Surface Visibility -Reduced visibility in RAPv 5 possibly associated w/ lowlevel cloud cover in Surface Visibility -Reduced visibility in RAPv 5 possibly associated w/ lowlevel cloud cover in](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image_h2/2f8bb4f710220154f2e4cdcba43a2195/image-27.jpg)
Surface Visibility -Reduced visibility in RAPv 5 possibly associated w/ lowlevel cloud cover in early morning over CA -Further investigation needed Initialized: 21 Z 11/17/19 Valid: 12 Z 11/18/19 27
![Low-level Cloud Cover (Extended) Initialized: 0 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 18 Z 11/5/19 Comparing to Low-level Cloud Cover (Extended) Initialized: 0 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 18 Z 11/5/19 Comparing to](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image_h2/2f8bb4f710220154f2e4cdcba43a2195/image-28.jpg)
Low-level Cloud Cover (Extended) Initialized: 0 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 18 Z 11/5/19 Comparing to satellite image, RAPv 5 seems to do better 28
![Total Cloud Cover (Extended) Initialized: 0 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 18 Z 11/5/19 Comparing to Total Cloud Cover (Extended) Initialized: 0 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 18 Z 11/5/19 Comparing to](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image_h2/2f8bb4f710220154f2e4cdcba43a2195/image-29.jpg)
Total Cloud Cover (Extended) Initialized: 0 Z 11/5/19 Valid: 18 Z 11/5/19 Comparing to satellite image, RAPv 5 seems to do better 29
![Summary • More cloud cover in RAPv 5 and HRRRv 4 (due to retention Summary • More cloud cover in RAPv 5 and HRRRv 4 (due to retention](http://slidetodoc.com/presentation_image_h2/2f8bb4f710220154f2e4cdcba43a2195/image-30.jpg)
Summary • More cloud cover in RAPv 5 and HRRRv 4 (due to retention of shallow clouds/cloudy air masses & sub-grid changes) • This increased cloud cover in RAPv 5 and HRRRv 4 more closely matches satellite verification compared to operational counterparts • RAPv 5 and HRRRv 4 capture clouds in Bering Sea/Strait better than RAPv 4 and HRRRv 3 • RAPv 5 CONUS captures clouds along West Coast and Midwest/Great Lakes better than RAPv 4 • Lower sfc visibility over central AK in HRRRv 4 compared to HRRRv 3 • Mixed signal for RAPv 5 and v 4 sfc visibility difference field compared to decreased sfc visibility over AK for HRRRv 4 and v 3 difference field • Decreased sfc visibility along West Coast in CONUS RAPv 5 compared to RAPv 4 30
- Slides: 30