Measuring Vulnerability in the Western Pacific Islands Fisheries

Measuring Vulnerability in the Western Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center Danika Kleiber 2017 PIFSC External Review: Economics and Human Dimensions July 31, 2017

Outline 1. Community Social Vulnerability Indicators 2. Developing Western Pacific Vulnerability Indicators 3. Data & Index Applications 4. PIFSC Vulnerability Monitoring Work U. S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 2

Community Social Vulnerability Indicators U. S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 3

National NOAA Program U. S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 4

Variables Indices Vulnerabilities Fishing Vulnerability Indicators Fisheries Fishing Engagement Fishing Reliance Poverty PER CAPITA child poverty public assistance # of fishers catch volume # of dealers catch value Social Gentrification Population Housing Composition race rent age values education home types Retiree Migration Urban Sprawl retirement income labor force population density cost of living U. S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 5

Developing Western Pacific Vulnerability Indicators U. S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 6

Plan to develop indicators for our region We are here Replicate analysis with regional data Assess applicability Wait, that makes no sense! Develop indicators that fit this context Ground truth results U. S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 7

CCD Community Scale Population Size # mean median max min 83 17805 5371 374567 17 Honolulu Swain’s Island U. S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 8

Built Data base from Secondary Sources Data Source Hawaii Guam CNMI American Samoa U. S. Census X X Applied Geographic Solutions X Atlas of Natural Hazards in the Hawaiian Coastal Zone’s X Fisherman’s Reporting System X Dealer Data X Longline logbook X U. S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 9

Issues with replication 1. Small sample size can limit single factor solution 2. Undeveloped data • Non-commercial fishing 3. Episodic data in the territories • ACS data only collected every ten years 4. Some variables do not fit • Mobile homes 5. Some variables do not clearly translate • Race/ethnicity • English proficiency • Economic measures for non-market based economies U. S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 10

Outcome • Swapped some variables • Service instead of self employment • Dropped some variables • race/ethnicity • Dropped Indices (for now) • Housing Disruption, Recreational Fisheries • Dropped Vulnerability Categories • Gentrification U. S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 11

Vulnerability Indicators Indices Fisheries Commercial Engagement Commercial Reliance Variables Commercial permits Dealers Per Capita Landings (lbs) Landings ($) Fishing & agriculture employment Social Population Composition Housing Labor Force Personal Disruption Poverty Women headed HH Rent Women employed No diploma Women headed HH in poverty Bachelor’s degree # of rooms HH income <$10, 000 Population in poverty Pop <5 yo No plumbing Service employment Unemployed Families w/ children <5 yo in poverty <18 yo in poverty U. S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 12

Commercial Fishing Reliance + - VULNERABILITY Hana Honolulu Hilo Kalawao Population Size 2, 267 374, 567 50, 066 78 Index score 4. 40 0. 25 -0. 67 -2. 14 Commercial Permits / 1000 capita 6. 5 0. 8 2. 3 0 Dealers per capita / 1000 capita 0. 9 0. 06 0. 2 0 Landings (lbs. ) / 1000 capita 34, 406 47, 174 9, 982 0 Fishing & agriculture employment 18. 1% 0. 5% 1. 6% 0% Variables U. S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 13

Commercial Fishing Reliance U. S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 14

Population Composition + VULNERABILITY - Ta‘u AS Rota, CNMI Santa Rita, Guam Kula, Hawaii 2. 07 0. 07 -0. 26 -3. 02 Single Women headed HH 14% 18% 17% 8% Bachelor’s degree 8% 14% 17% 27% Pop <5 yo 16% 8% 8% 4% Index Score Variables U. S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 15

Population Composition U. S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 16

Data & Index Applications U. S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 17

Social Vulnerability National Data Base U. S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 18

Hawai‘i Fishing Community Snapshot Tool Demographic Attributes American Community Survey Data • Education • Employment by industry • Unemployment • Median household income • % families below poverty level • % income spent on housing • Age distribution • Race and Ethnicity • Language • % foreign born U. S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 19

Social Vulnerability & Sea Level Rise Nelson 2016 20

Social Vulnerability & Coral Reef Resilience Oliver et al. U. S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 21

Future Work: Social & Species Vulnerability Pacific Islands Vulnerability Assessment Rapid Species Vulnerability Assessment PIVA Gidden et al. 22

PIFSC Vulnerability Monitoring Work U. S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 23

Social vulnerability & adaptive capacity to changing climate U. S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 24

Assessing and building adaptive capacity to climate change in Micronesia 8/7/2017 25

Next Steps 1. Refine Western Pacific vulnerability indicators • Continue to develop primary and secondary data that supports meaningful indicators of: o Fishing vulnerability o Community adaptive capacity • Ground truth findings 2. Collaborate on interdisciplinary projects U. S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 26