Measuring the Untapped Job Potential in Your Region

Measuring the Untapped Job Potential in Your Region Using Shift Share

Understanding Shift Share Example #1: Software Publishers in Manhattan (New York County) 2009 Jobs = 2, 000 Jobs 2014 Jobs = 3, 000 Jobs

Software Publishers, cont. • Actual Growth = 50% (+1, 000 Jobs) • Expected Growth = 20% (+400 Jobs) • Competitive Effect = 30% (+600 Jobs)

Understanding Shift Share Example #2: TV Broadcasting in Manhattan (New York County) 2009 Jobs = 10, 000 Jobs 2014 Jobs = 9, 000 Jobs

TV Broadcasting, cont. • Actual Growth = -10% (-1, 000 Jobs) • Expected Growth = 3% (+300 Jobs) • Competitive Effect = -13% (-1, 300 Jobs)

Case Study: Austin, Tampa, and Binghamton

Tampa-St. Petersburg: Slightly Above Average • Added 63 K jobs since 2009 (5. 2% growth; nation 4. 9% ) • Could have added another 93 K jobs if underperforming industries had done as well as they had done nationwide • 93 K extra jobs = $4. 8 B in earnings

Tampa: Industry Mix

Tampa: Non-Competitive Industries • Temp Help Services (-142 jobs lost; 11, 500 potential new jobs) • Professional Employer Orgs (-12, 300 jobs lost; 10, 600 potential new jobs) • Electronic Shopping (-1, 600 jobs lost; 3, 800 potential new jobs)

Tampa: Professional Employer Organizations

Tampa: Competitive Industries • Corporate, Subsidiary, and Regional Managing Offices (6, 000 jobs added; 2, 600 expected jobs; 3, 400 comp. effect) • Telemarketing Bureaus (4, 600 jobs added; 1, 300 expected jobs; 3, 300 comp. effect) • Hospitals (3, 000 jobs added; 800 expected jobs; 2, 200 comp. effect)

Austin-Round Rock: Way Above Average • Added 138 K jobs (+17%) • Could have added another 30 K jobs • Extra 30 K jobs = $1. 8 B in earnings

Austin: Industry Mix

Austin: Competitive Industries • Custom Comp. Programming Services (8, 400 jobs added; 1, 900 expected jobs; 6, 500 comp. effect) • Elementary & Secondary Schools (3, 600 jobs added; -1, 800 expected jobs; 5, 400 comp. effect) • Local Govt. (2, 300 jobs added; -800 expected jobs; 3, 100 comp. effect)

Austin: Non-Competitive Industries • Colleges & Universities (-1, 500 jobs lost; 3, 000 potential new jobs) • State Govt. (-4, 300 jobs lost; 1, 900 potential new jobs) • Circuit Board Mfg. (-2, 100 jobs lost; 1, 600 potential new jobs)

Binghamton: Way Below Average • Lost 6, 700 jobs (-6%) • Could have added 16 K jobs • 16 K in new jobs = $790 M in earnings

Binghamton: Industry Mix

Binghamton: Non-Competitive Industries • Printed Circuit Assembly Mfg. (-1, 000 jobs lost; 1, 200 potential new jobs) • Search, Detection, Navigation Mfg. (2, 000 jobs lost; 960 potential new jobs) • Electronic Comp. Mfg. (-500 jobs lost; 550 potential new jobs)

Binghamton: Competitive Industries • Electric Power Distribution (615 jobs added; 70 expected jobs; 545 comp. effect) • Hospitals (570 jobs added; 120 expected jobs; 450 comp. effect)

Joshua Wright Director of Marketing & PR jwright@economicmodeling. com