Measuring Socially and Economically Sustainable Rural Communities A

Measuring Socially and Economically Sustainable Rural Communities A policy based approach Pippa Gibson Defra

Overview • Rural definitions – Definition – Classification • Measuring Socially and Economically Sustainable Rural Communities – Background – Selecting indicators – Measuring success – Examples – Next steps • Conclusions

How to define rural? • Rural Definition developed in 2004 • Start by dividing England into a grid of hectare square cells (100 m x 100 m) • Every postal address grouped into hectare cell into which it falls • Residential density is calculated for all cells for a series of radii around each cell • Based on the residential density and the relationships between radii, the ‘underlying settlement classification’ is created

How to define rural? • Settlements are defined by morphology and context • Urban cut off is 10, 000 population • Within rural, there are three settlement types: town and fringe, villages, and hamlets and isolated dwellings. • The context of each settlement is also taken into account. The most remote areas are defined as being in a “sparse” context.

How to define rural? The definition takes the form of: England Urban Sparse Rural Less sparse Sparse Town/ fringe Village Less sparse Isolated dwellings Town/ fringe Village Isolated dwellings

How to define rural? Can group by settlement type: England Urban Sparse Rural Less sparse Sparse Town/ fringe Village Less sparse Isolated dwellings Town/ fringe Village Isolated dwellings

How to define rural? Or by sparsity: England Urban Sparse Rural Less sparse Sparse Town/ fringe Village Less sparse Isolated dwellings Town/ fringe Village Isolated dwellings

How to define rural? • This is very useful to examine differences between different types of rural settlement doesn’t assume that all rural areas are the same • Data need to be at a sufficiently small spatial scale to apply this definition • Often data are published at a higher geographical level – so need classification to take account of this

Local Authority classification • Data are often only published at local authority level (equivalent to NUTS 4) – Disclosure – Coverage • Using the Rural Definition as a base, we can classify local authorities on a six-point scale of rural to urban

Criteria behind the LA classification: • Major Urban: districts with either 100, 000 people or 50 percent of their population in an urban area with a population of more than 750, 000; • Large Urban: districts with either 50, 000 people or 50 percent of their population in one of 17 urban areas with a population between 250, 000 and 750, 000; • Other Urban: districts with less than 26 percent of their population in rural settlements and larger market towns; • Significant Rural: districts with more than 26 percent of their population in rural settlements and larger market towns; • Rural-50: districts with at least 50 percent but less than 80 percent of their population in rural settlements and larger market towns; • Rural-80: districts with at least 80 percent of their population in rural settlements and larger market towns

Aggregating the LA classification

Measuring Socially and Economically Sustainable Rural Communities • One of Defra's key objectives • Measured in two parts: – The evidenced needs of rural people and communities are addressed through mainstream public policy and delivery – Economic growth is supported in rural areas with the lowest levels of performance

‘Mainstreaming’ objective - theory • Government targets policy in all areas, regardless of whether they are urban or rural • Defra aims to monitor whether a range of Government policies are impacting in rural areas as much as in urban areas • A range of policy areas are monitored: education, health, housing, crime, social capital and poverty

Economic objective • This also looks at whether rural areas are at a disadvantage compared with England as a whole, but focus on economic indicators • A variety of economic areas are monitored: earnings, employment, adult skills, business investment and enterprise.

Measuring these indicators • Indicators were chosen not only for their relevance but also for their availability • Data must ideally be available at a low spatial level to apply the Definition: – Census output areas (population ~300) – Super output areas (population ~1, 500) – Wards (population ~5000) • Only if this is not available, use local authority level data

Selection of indicators • Within each sub-theme a range of measureable indicators is selected • E. g. Health sub-theme measured by: – Life expectancy – Potential years of life lost from cancer, stroke, heart disease, suicide – Infant mortality • Data on provision of social care not available so this indicator not selected

Measuring success • Aim is NOT for rural areas to out-perform urban areas or the national average • Rural areas should perform as well as the England average • If they perform below average, the trend should suggest improvement

Measuring success: ‘traffic lights’ Where will the trajectory take rural areas? In relation to the norm, rural areas are: Above norm the norm (but within unacceptable timeframe) or parallel with norm Below the Below norm (but the norm outside relevant timeframe) Above GREEN A/G Equal GREEN A/G A/R Below: within acceptable range Below: unacceptable range GREEN A/G A/R A/G RED RED

Example results Number of entrants to higher education • Data are available by ward, so can use the Rural Definition • Aggregate number of entrants for each category • Present as a rate per 1, 000 18 -20 year olds (because populations are very different in rural and urban areas)

Education Number of entrants to higher education

Housing affordability Ratio of earnings to house prices • Data only available by local authority, so use LA classification • Present as a population weighted average of earnings: house price ratio

Housing affordability Ratio of earnings to house prices

Economic growth Productivity • Gross Value Added data available but not published at local authority level • When aggregated to the LA classification we can publish the figures • Advantage of having lower level data is that we can separate out the London authorities which tells a very different story

Economic growth Productivity

Next steps/future work • Mainstreaming indicators: research programme – Reasons for differences? – Averages mask localised disadvantage? – Share results with lead Department • “Lowest performing” rural areas? – Which areas are performing as well as they can? – Which areas could perform better?

Conclusions • No single indicator can measure ‘socially and economically sustainable rural communities’ • Nor can a set of indicators fully reflect every aspect of rural life • BUT a range of Government priorities can be monitored using available data and robust rural definition/classifications • Sound evidence base enables Government to focus on areas with greatest indication of need

Thank you