Measuring Public Opinion Sampling Techniques Representative sampling Most

Measuring Public Opinion • Sampling Techniques – Representative sampling • Most important principle in sampling = randomness – Every person should have a known chance, and especially an equal chance, of being sampled Margin of Error = the range of percentage points in which the sample accurately reflects the population

Measuring Public Opinion • Intensity – A measure of how strongly an individual holds a particular opinion • Latency – Political opinions that are held but not yet expressed • Salience – An individual’s belief that an issue is important or relevant to him or her • Manifest Opinion – A widely shared and consciously held view

Measuring Public Opinion • Problems with Polls – Sampling Error – Polling Questions – Push Polls • “Political Telemarketing” • to push away from a candidate Selection bias and non-response bias – Telephone Polling Problems http: //www. math. upenn. edu/~detur ck/m 170/wk 4/lecture/case 1. html • Over ¼ have no landline • People unresponsive – Internet Polling – Quota Sampling http: //www. math. upenn. edu/~deturck/m 170/wk 4/lecture/case 2. html

Measuring Public Opinion • Public Opinion Polls – A snapshot of the opinions and preferences of the people at a specific moment in time and as expressed in response to a specific question • An event can change this view suddenly – May reveal a latent position – Sampling error • The difference between a sample’s results and the true result if the entire population has been interviewed – due to sample not being chosen scientifically – As elections near pollsters often change from eligible voters to likely voters • Can cause a dramatic change

Measuring Public Opinion Using scientific methods modern polls have a high probability of being correct using small sample sizes (often about 1500)

Measuring Public Opinion • Poll Questions can be influenced by: – Type of question • Yes/No questions – Sometimes difficult to indicate true position – Influence of words/phrases • Ex. “…fighting terrorism”, “…helping children” – Order questions are asked – Interaction with interviewer

Measuring Public Opinion

Measuring Public Opinion

Public Opinion and the Political Process • Politicians “What I want, is to get done what the people desire to be done, and the question for me is how to find that out exactly. ” – Source of power when dealing with other politicians – Helps shape campaigns around issues identified as most important • Voters – Use to determine who to vote for, esp. in primaries • Contributors – Who is viable

Public Opinion and the Political Process Latent

Political Ideology and Attitudes Toward Government • Political Ideology

Political Ideology and Attitudes Toward Government • Liberalism

Political Ideology and Attitudes Toward Government • Liberalism

Political Ideology and Attitudes Toward Government • Liberalism

Political Ideology and Attitudes Toward Government • Conservatism

Political Ideology and Attitudes Toward Government • Traditional Conservatives

Political Ideology and Attitudes Toward Government • Social Conservatives (New Right)

Political Ideology and Attitudes Toward Government • Conservatism