MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM 2 M TEMPERATURE caricofcimh edu

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MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM 2 M TEMPERATURE caricof@cimh. edu. bb

MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM 2 M TEMPERATURE caricof@cimh. edu. bb

SON MAX. TEMPERATURE O MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh. edu. bb

SON MAX. TEMPERATURE O MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic SON 2 m Max. Temperature forecast CCA experiments: 1. 2. 3. 4.

CPT probabilistic SON 2 m Max. Temperature forecast CCA experiments: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over July (data source: NOAA ERSSTv 5, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over July Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over SON (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv 2 , August initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over SON Predictor is predicted T 2 m over the Caribbean over SON (data source: ECHAM 4. 5 ensemble 24, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over SON (data source: NOAA CPC NMME, August initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over SON caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic SON 2 m Max. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing

CPT probabilistic SON 2 m Max. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 54 Values : 20 Index : 0. 234 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 Used : 39 Stations : 10 Moderate ERSSTv 5 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 4 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 Initial : 54 Values : 20 Index : 0. 105 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 39 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 5 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: Initial : Values : 20 Index : 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : Used : Stations : 10 CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: Initial : Values : 20 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : Used : Stations : 10 CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : Experiment 1 Index : caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic SON 2 m Max. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing

CPT probabilistic SON 2 m Max. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 CCA modes: Initial : Values : 20 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 X modes : Used : Stations : 10 ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 54 Values : 20 Index : 0. 273 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 39 Stations : 10 Fair NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 54 Values : 20 Index : 0. 168 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 6 Used : 39 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Index : caricof@cimh. edu. bb

DJF MAX. TEMPERATURE 3 MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh. edu. bb

DJF MAX. TEMPERATURE 3 MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic DJF 2 m Max. Temperature forecast CCA experiments: 1. 2. 3. 4.

CPT probabilistic DJF 2 m Max. Temperature forecast CCA experiments: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over July (data source: NOAA ERSSTv 5, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over July Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over DJF (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv 2 , August initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over DJF Predictor is predicted T 2 m over the Caribbean over DJF (data source: ECHAM 4. 5 ensemble 24, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over DJF (data source: NOAA CPC NMME , August initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over DJF caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic DJF 2 m Max. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing

CPT probabilistic DJF 2 m Max. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 54 Values : 20 Index : 0. 157 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 37 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 5 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 54 Values : 20 Index : 0. 123 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 37 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 5 Y modes : 8 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: Initial : Values : 20 Index : 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : Used : Stations : 10 CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: Initial : Values : 20 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : Used : Stations : 10 CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : Experiment 1 Index : caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic DJF 2 m Max. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing

CPT probabilistic DJF 2 m Max. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 CCA modes: Initial : Values : 20 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 X modes : Used : Stations : 10 ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 54 Values : 20 Index : 0. 195 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 6 Used : 38 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 3 Initial : 54 Values : 20 Index : 0. 176 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 5 Used : 38 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Index : caricof@cimh. edu. bb

SON MIN. TEMPERATURE O MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh. edu. bb

SON MIN. TEMPERATURE O MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic SON 2 m Min. Temperature forecast CCA experiments: 1. 2. 3. 4.

CPT probabilistic SON 2 m Min. Temperature forecast CCA experiments: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over July (data source: NOAA ERSSTv 5, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over July Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over SON (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv 2 , August initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over SON Predictor is predicted T 2 m over the Caribbean over SON (data source: ECHAM 4. 5 ensemble 24, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over SON (data source: NOAA CPC NMME, August initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over SON caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic SON 2 m Min. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing

CPT probabilistic SON 2 m Min. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 Initial : 54 Values : 20 Index : 0. 075 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 Used : 40 Stations : 10 !!Very Limited!! ERSSTv 5 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 4 Initial : 54 Values : 20 Index : -0. 039 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 Used : 40 Stations : 10 Negative ERSSTv 5 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 7 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: Initial : Values : 20 Index : 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : Used : Stations : 10 CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: Initial : Values : 20 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : Used : Stations : 10 CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : Experiment 1 Index : caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic SON 2 m Min. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing

CPT probabilistic SON 2 m Min. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 CCA modes: Initial : Values : 20 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 X modes : Used : Stations : 10 ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 Initial : 54 Values : 20 Index : 0. 138 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 Used : 41 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 Initial : 54 Values : 20 Index : 0. 132 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : 7 Used : 41 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 6 Index : caricof@cimh. edu. bb

DJF MIN. TEMPERATURE 3 MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh. edu. bb

DJF MIN. TEMPERATURE 3 MONTH LEAD (ML) caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic DJF 2 m Min. Temperature forecast CCA experiments: 1. 2. 3. 4.

CPT probabilistic DJF 2 m Min. Temperature forecast CCA experiments: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over July (data source: NOAA ERSSTv 5, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is observed SST over the tropical North Atlantic over July Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over DJF (data source: NOAA CPC CFSv 2 , August initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over DJF Predictor is predicted T 2 m over the Caribbean over DJF (data source: ECHAM 4. 5 ensemble 24, obtained from the IRI data library). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over DJF (data source: NOAA CPC NMME , August initialisation). Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical North Atlantic over DJF caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic DJF 2 m Min. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing

CPT probabilistic DJF 2 m Min. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 54 Values : 20 Index : 0. 114 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 Used : 39 Stations : 10 !Limited! ERSSTv 5 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Experiment 2 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 54 Values : 20 Index : 0. 012 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 Used : 39 Stations : 10 !!Very Limited!! ERSSTv 5 Y modes : 8 Y modes : 5 Experiment 3 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: Initial : Values : 20 Index : 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : Used : Stations : 10 CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : Experiment 4 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: Initial : Values : 20 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 X modes : Used : Stations : 10 CFSv 2 Y modes : 8 Y modes : Experiment 1 Index : caricof@cimh. edu. bb

CPT probabilistic DJF 2 m Min. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing

CPT probabilistic DJF 2 m Min. Temperature forecast Maximum Optimum No. of Stations Missing Y data Goodness Index Experiment 5 CCA modes: 3 CCA modes: Initial : Values : 20 100 -40 W & 35 N-5 S X modes : 5 X modes : Used : Stations : 10 ECHAM 4. 5 Y modes : Experiment 6 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 54 Values : 20 Index : 0. 129 140 E-20 W & 30 N-20 S X modes : 8 X modes : 2 Used : 39 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 7 Experiment 7 CCA modes: 5 CCA modes: 2 Initial : 54 Values : 20 Index : 0. 177 90 -20 W & 30 -0 N X modes : 8 Used : 39 Stations : 10 !Limited! NMME Y modes : 8 Y modes : 3 Index : caricof@cimh. edu. bb

caricof@cimh. edu. bb rcc. cimh. edu. bb Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology TEL:

caricof@cimh. edu. bb rcc. cimh. edu. bb Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology TEL: (246) 425 -1362/3 | FAX: (246) 424 -4733

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MEAN 2 M TEMPERATURE caricofcimh edu bb SONMEAN 2 M TEMPERATURE caricofcimh edu bb SON
APPENDIX caricofcimh edu bb Caribbean RCC Temperature MonitorAPPENDIX caricofcimh edu bb Caribbean RCC Temperature Monitor
MEAN 2 M TEMPERATURE caricofcimh edu bb FMAMEAN 2 M TEMPERATURE caricofcimh edu bb FMA
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