MAT 4830 Mathematical Modeling Winter 2021 http myhome

MAT 4830 Mathematical Modeling Winter 2021 http: //myhome. spu. edu/lauw

Dr. Wai W. Lau l Dr. Lau l Wai

Dr. Wai W. Lau l Dr. Lau l Wai =

Dr. Wai W. Lau l Dr. Lau l Wai = =

Course Web Page http: //myhome. spu. edu/lauw Link to this document and other course information

Office Hours l l See course web page By Appointment

Prerequisites l l MAT 2401, 3237 and 3360 You are assumed to know the basics of Maple proficiencies is implied in the pre-req. as we use Maple in all our calculus classes.

This course l Focuses on construction and analysis of mathematical models of problems in the real world.

This course l l Focuses on construction and analysis of mathematical models of problems in the real world. Challenging, Demanding, Exciting, and Rewarding • Individual works (Traditional lecture/HW) • Team works (Case Studies and Modeling Contests)

Technology l Appropriate technology (Maple) will be utilized to provide a more convenient way to solve real world problems.

Technology l l Appropriate technology (Maple) will be utilized to provide a more convenient way to solve real world problems. Students will learn and master basic Maple programming techniques.

Technology l l If you have not use Maple before, you probably need to spend sometime to learn the basic (before our first programming lecture). If you have already programmed Maple before, it is a good time to review.

Technology l l l If you have not use Maple before, you probably need to spend sometime to learn the basic (before our first programming lecture). If you have already programmed Maple before, it is a good time to review. Student version can be purchased at discounted price ($? ? , code ? ? ? )

Case Studies l l l Students will study problems as a group. Each group will prepare presentations and reports. Students will practice work sharing, time management, and possibly interdisciplinary cooperation.

Case Studies l l l Students will study problems as a group. Each group will prepare presentations and reports. Students will practice work sharing, time management, and possibly interdisciplinary cooperation.

Case Studies l l l Students will study problems as a group. Each group will prepare presentations and reports. Students will practice work sharing, time management, and possibly interdisciplinary cooperation.

Case Studies Specific case studies may include (but not limit to): • Airline Overbooking • Tollbooths Modeling • Sprinkler Systems for Irrigation • Probability Models for Finger Prints • The Airport Security problem • The Exhaustible Resource Problem

Case Studies – Timeline Read the material Group Discussion Report Production PPT Production Presentation

Case Studies – Timeline Read the material Group Discussion Report Production PPT Production Presentation Electronic copies of reports and PPT due 9 p. m. The day before presentation

Case Studies – Timeline Read the material Group Discussion Report Production PPT Production Presentation One member will present.

Case Studies – Timeline Read the material Group Discussion Report Production PPT Production Presentation Hard copies of reports and PPT due at the beginning of your presentation.

Case Studies l l All reports must be typed(Show Sample) All presentations must use Power. Point Slides (Show Sample) Electronic copies of reports and PPT due 9 p. m. on the day before presentation. Hard copies of reports and PPT due at the beginning of your presentation.

Case Studies l Each report is around 2 pages (not counting the cover sheet). It should consist of: • A short summary • Analysis and Critique l l You may use the diagrams from the files. Retype all formula. Do not copy-and paste from the files.

Case Studies l l Each presentation is about 25 min. Other groups need to pay attention and ask questions. Part of your grade is assigned according to your participation. Being nice or ignorant or lack of interest will result in lower grades. Attentive and actively involve in discussion will get you bonus points.

Case Studies l l Members should commit to share the workload. Members of the same group will get grades according to their involvements.

Case Studies – Grading Guide l l l Do you meet all the deadlines? Do you meet all the requirements? Are you able to understand the paper? Are you able to “discover” the good (and bad) things about the paper? Can you present the ideas, written and oral?

Case Studies – Grading Guide l Some of these principles are used to rank your actual paper.

Case Studies – Grading Guide l l l Letter grades will be given by the end of day it is presented. At least one team member should come to talk to me about possible improvement on the next case study. (I prefer to talk to the whole team, but I know the scheduling is difficult. )

Modeling Contests Each group will enter into one of the following modeling contests (2/4 -2/8): • MCM: The Mathematical Contest in Modeling • Problem A (continuous) • Problem B (discrete) • Problem C (data science) • ICM: The Interdisciplinary Contest in Modeling • Problem D (operations research/network science) • Problem E (environmental science) • Problem F (policy)

Modeling Contests l Case Studies are selected from past contest problems

Modeling Contests l l l Registration Fee: $100 per team I need $100 cash, no coins, from each team by next Monday. Also email me the official names of your team members that you would like to appear in the certificates.

Modeling Contests l l A “N” grade will be given at the end of the quarter. 120 points of your class grade • 100 points for the ranking • 10 points for the class presentation • 10* points for the poster presentation at the Erickson conference (see sample in OMH 202)

Modeling Contests l l A “N” grade will be given at the end of the quarter. Grades for the MCM ranking will be assigned as follows Results Unsuccessful Successful Honorable Mention Points (/100)

SPU Records Unsuccessful Participants/ Disqualified 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 Successful Participants Honorable Mentions Meritorious Winners 1 1 2 3 1 2 2 1 3 1 1 1 Finalist & Outstanding Winners

SPU Records Unsuccessful Participants/ Disqualified 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 Successful Participants 2 1 Honorable Mentions 2 3 3 1 Meritorious Winners 2 2 2 1 Finalist & Outstanding Winners 2

Comparison to Local Universities (WA, 2018) Unsuccessful Participants/ Disqualified Successful Participants SPU Seattle U Honorable Mentions Meritorious Winners 2 2 1 CWU 1 EWU 3 WSU 2 WWU 1 UW* UPS 1 1 PLU 1 1 1 Finalist & Outstanding Winners

Random Comparison to Major US Universities (2018) Unsuccessful Participants/ Disqualified Successful Participants SPU Cornell 3 UI 1 Columbia U UC Berkeley UC Davis Honorable Mentions Meritorious Winners 2 2 1 1 Finalist & Outstanding Winners 1 1 3 1 1 UCLA 1 2 UC Irvine 3 OR State Virginia Tech 1 9 1

Comparison with Local/Major US Universities (2017 -2019) Successful Participant s SPU Seattle U CWU EWU WSU WWU UW U Puget Sound PLU Cornell UI Urbana. Champaign UBC Columbia U UC Berkeley UC Davis UCLA UC Irvine Oregon State Virginia Tech Meritorious Winners (~Top 7%) 6 6 4 2 1 3 Honorable Mentions (~Top 25%) 6 3 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 3 2 3 3 2 2 5 2 1 4 4 2 1 6 1 3 1 1 14 4 2 Outstanding Finalist Winners (~Top 0. 25%) (~Top 0. 12%) 1 1 1 3 2 1 1 1 1 2

Quote from David Olwell l l MCM Head Judge, Problem C “SPU has been dominant in the United States for the performance of its MCM teams, outperforming every other university on the West Coast, including Berkeley, over the last three years”

Models and Topics l l l Various continuous and discrete models will be discussed in this class. Substantial weight will be placed on applications to biological modeling and time series modeling/forecasting. . However, the modeling techniques learned will be applicable to other areas of application.

Models and Topics l Specific concepts, models and techniques students learn in this course include: • Discrete and Continuous Probability Models • Monte Carlo Simulation • Mean Time Between Failures • Simple Queuing Theory • AR(p) Models • MA(q) Models • ARIMA(p, d, q) Models

Models and Topics • Modeling Molecular Evolution • Matrix Models of Base Substitution • Phylogenetic Distances • Phylogenetic Trees • Tree Construction: Distance Methods • Maximum Parsimony • Probability Distributions in Genetics • Linkage • Gene Frequency in Populations • Other interesting topics if time permits.

Actuary VEE (? ? ) l l The time series topics are in line with SOA Validation by Educational Experience, Applied Statistical Methods Part II Time series/forecasting You are responsible for course approval application (One of you just need to complete the application once. )

Texts 1. Allman and Rhodes, Mathematical Models in Biology 2. Zeng, Scientific Computing with Maple Programming (Manuscript, Chapter 1) 3. Other supplemental Materials

Expectations l l l Able to provide written explanations of the ideas behind key concepts. Able to clearly present and explain solutions to problems in both written and verbal form. Read and write proofs appropriate at this level.

Expectations l l Able to work as a team to solve problems. Able to use Maple to write short programs.

Expectations - Handouts l l You are expected to print and bring your handout to class. Fail to have your HO repeatedly will negatively impact your grade.

Homework l l l Homework problem sets will be assigned. All work must be typed. The ONLY references you can use are the textbooks and the lecture note. You cannot use any other resources such as other books, software, and the internet.

Homework l l Group HW Individual HW

Group Homework l You are required to work together in a group of 2 or 3.

Individual Homework l l No discussion with any other person, except may be the instructor. Discussing or copying homework is considered as an act of academic dishonesty

Homework l l Your homework must be neat and easy to read. Otherwise, no points will be given. The instructor may make you redo your homework sets (again and again) until the presentations are acceptable. Homework must be written with proper logical format.

Homework l l Staple your Homework. Points will be taken off if you fail to do so. Homework is due at the beginning of the class. Absolutely no late homework.

Homework l l Homework must be written with proper logical format. Pay attention to the notations and format used in the lecture. You need to follow the standard notations and format of the class notes in the case that they are different from the textbook and supplemental materials.

Class Participation: 1. There are reading assignments. I will ask questions during the class period to check your reading progress 2. There are classwork in some class sessions. At the end of the quarter, your grades on class participation will be determined by the above activities and other observations by the instructor.

Exams l 1 mid-term exam and a final

Points Distribution MCM 120 points Exam 1 60 points Final 80 points Homework 60 points Class Participation 20 points Case Studies 60 points

Final Class Grade 90% 80% 70% 60% Below 60% A Range B Range C Range D Range E

Incomplete Policy l No incomplete will be given if you do not already have a passing grade (70%) at the time of the request.

Help!! l Talk to me. I am available during office hours and other times.

If Maple is new to you…. . l Finish the Maple Essential Tutorials 1 -3

Maple Tutorials 1. Log into your account 2. Download the Maple Essential Tutorials from the course webpage 3. Run the Tutorials to learn the basic commands

Consultant Groups… l l Each group should have 3 members. Commit to work with each other. A mixed “talents” is a good idea. Create a name for you “consulting company”.

Team Members (a) someone who can write well and articulate the ideas behind the solutions to the problem given; (b) someone who is somewhat confident working with computers; (c) someone who can organize and have good time management; (d) someone who can come up with innovated ideas; (e) someone who is a physics/CS/engineering/something-other-than-math major.

Team Members 1. Recruit team members from outside the class. This has been the most popular option in the past. All team members must be approve by the instructor. 2. Your team can stay with only 2 members if the two of you are confident enough to tackle the problem with only 2 persons (or you fail to recruit another member).

Homework l l l Prepare for Case Study 1 Team-Case Assignments (Done!) Locate Report Cover Sheet and Circulate a Sample Report

Bonus, Bonus… l l 10 bonus points for those who can recruit 1 team member. Pending approval by the instructor. The 10 points can be shared by at most 2 persons. The new recruits can register for 1 upper division math credit, and get 10 points for next class with Wai.