MARA JESS SERRA VARELA maje serragmail com Assessing

MARÍA JESÚS SERRA VARELA maje. serra@gmail. com Assessing vulnerability to support conservation management. An example with two Mediterranean pines Serra-Varela, M. J. Alía, R. Ruiz Daniels, R. Zimmermann, N. Gonzalo-Jiménez, J. * Grivet, D. * *These authors contributed equally to the supervision of the work Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon 30. 05. 2016 – 04 -05 -2016

INDEX 1. - INTRODUCTION 2. - METHODS 3. - RESULTS 4. - DISCUSSION 5. - FINAL REMARKS Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon 30. 05. 2016 – 04 -05 -2016

1. - INTRODUCTION Climate change is leading to forest decline (e. g. Wang et al. , 2006; Allen et al. , 2010). Urgent need to design conservation plans with a solid scientific basis What is threatened? It is necessary to assess vulnerability Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon 30. 05. 2016 – 04 -05 -2016

1. - INTRODUCTION Climate change is leading to forest decline (e. g. Wang et al. , 2006; Allen et al. , 2010). Urgent need to design conservation plans with a solid scientific basis What is threatened? It is necessary to assess vulnerability VULNERABILITY (Dawson et al. , 2011): ü Adaptive capacity ü Exposure ü Sensitivity Rarely considered together Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon 30. 05. 2016 – 04 -05 -2016

1. - INTRODUCTION VULNERABILITY (Dawson et al. , 2011): 1. Adaptive capacity (Nicotra et al. , 2015) Ability to cope with climate change by persisting in situ ü Phenotypic plasticity ü Genetic variation CONSERVATION UNITS Populations with similar genetic variation Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon 30. 05. 2016 – 04 -05 -2016

1. - INTRODUCTION VULNERABILITY (Dawson et al. , 2011): 1. Adaptive capacity (Nicotra et al. , 2015) Ability to cope with climate change by persisting in situ 2. Exposure Magnitude of climate change ü Assessed by risk of habitat loss with SDMs ü Infra-specific responses? Future climate uncertainties? Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon 30. 05. 2016 – 04 -05 -2016

1. - INTRODUCTION VULNERABILITY (Dawson et al. , 2011): 1. Adaptive capacity (Nicotra et al. , 2015) Ability to cope with climate change by persisting in situ 2. Exposure Magnitude of climate change 3. Sensitivity Likelihood of an adverse response to climate change ü Reproduction, performance, fitness, survival ü Require mechanistic models with large empirical datasets ü Complicated at a coarse scale Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon 30. 05. 2016 – 04 -05 -2016

1. - INTRODUCTION VULNERABILITY (Dawson et al. , 2011): 1. Adaptive capacity (Nicotra et al. , 2015) 2. Exposure Ability to cope with climate change by persisting in situ Magnitude of climate change Illustrated with two emblematic Mediterranean conifers • Adaptive capacity • Exposure • Adequate conservation strategy Pinus halepensis Mill. (in situ vs ex situ) Pinus pinaster Ait. Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon 30. 05. 2016 – 04 -05 -2016

1. - INTRODUCTION In addition: Evaluation of current European conservation efforts EUFGIS – Dynamic Conservation Units (DCUs) 42 (P. pinaster) and 26 (P. halepensis) DCUs Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon 30. 05. 2016 – 04 -05 -2016

2. - METHODS A. - GENETIC CLADES AS CONSERVATION UNITS Very different evolutionary histories and genetic structure patterns Pinus halepensis Mill. Pinus pinaster Ait. Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon 30. 05. 2016 – 04 -05 -2016

2. - METHODS A. - GENETIC CLADES AS CONSERVATION UNITS Very different evolutionary histories and genetic structure patterns Pinus halepensis Mill. Pinus pinaster Ait. Serra-Varela, M. J. , Alía, R. , Ruíz-Daniels, R. , Zimmermann, N. E. , Gonzalo-Jiménez, J. , Grivet, D. , submitted. Assessing vulnerability of two Mediterranean conifers to support genetic conservation management. Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon 30. 05. 2016 – 04 -05 -2016

2. - METHODS B. - SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS SDMs predict species distribution based on known occurrence records and on environmental variables Projections in any space or time! SDM FOR EACH GENETIC CLADE ü Four bioclimatic variables from WORLDCLIM (temp and prec related) ü Species distribution Data: EUFORGEN + AFOLU-JRC species distribution ü Ensemble model combining five algorithms: GLM GAM, CTA, RF and Max. Ent Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon 30. 05. 2016 – 04 -05 -2016

2. - METHODS C. - FUTURE SUITABILITY MAPS Projections on 42 different future climate predictions to account for future climate uncertainty Risk assessment of habitat loss depending on the level of agreement among the different projections From To Future Suitability 0, 00 0, 36 Likely unsuitable 0, 36 0, 70 Uncertain 0, 70 1, 00 Likely suitable Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon 30. 05. 2016 – 04 -05 -2016

2. - METHODS D. - DEFINING CONSERVATION STRATEGIES BASED ON EXPOSURE TO CLIMATE CHANGE • Conservation strategy recommendations based on Current distribution, current projections of their SDMs and future suitability maps • Main objective: to minimize the risk of failure • To select between Ex situ, in situ and in situ with monitoring Ex situ conservation by translocation or in germplasm banks Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon 30. 05. 2016 – 04 -05 -2016

2. - METHODS D. - DEFINING CONSERVATION STRATEGIES BASED ON EXPOSURE TO CLIMATE CHANGE Current Distribution Current projection Future Suitability of SDM Map 2050 Conservation strategy Presence - Likely unsuitable Ex situ Presence - Likely suitable In situ Presence - Uncertain In situ with monitoring Absent Suitable Likely suitable Current first option area for translocation Absent Suitable Uncertain Current second option area for translocation Absent Unsuitable Likely suitable Absent Unsuitable Uncertain Midterm first option area for translocation Midterm second option area for translocation Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon 30. 05. 2016 – 04 -05 -2016

2. - METHODS D. - DEFINING CONSERVATION STRATEGIES BASED ON EXPOSURE TO CLIMATE CHANGE Current Distribution Current projection Future Suitability of SDM Map 2050 Conservation strategy Presence - Likely unsuitable Ex situ Presence - Likely suitable In situ Presence - Uncertain In situ with monitoring Absent Suitable Likely suitable Current first option area for translocation Absent Suitable Uncertain Current second option area for translocation Absent Unsuitable Likely suitable Absent Unsuitable Uncertain Midterm first option area for translocation Midterm second option area for translocation Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon 30. 05. 2016 – 04 -05 -2016

2. - METHODS D. - DEFINING CONSERVATION STRATEGIES BASED ON EXPOSURE TO CLIMATE CHANGE Current Distribution Current projection Future Suitability of SDM Map 2050 Conservation strategy Presence - Likely unsuitable Ex situ Presence - Likely suitable In situ Presence - Uncertain In situ with monitoring Absent Suitable Likely suitable Current first option area for translocation Absent Suitable Uncertain Current second option area for translocation Absent Unsuitable Likely suitable Absent Unsuitable Uncertain Midterm first option area for translocation Midterm second option area for translocation Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon 30. 05. 2016 – 04 -05 -2016

3. - RESULTS A. - FUTURE SUITABILITY MAPS absent present Example with Atlantic Iberian Peninsula clade of P. pinaster Likely suitable areas concentrated near the current distribution of the clades and in other regions of the Mediterranean basin. likely uncertain unsuitable likely suitable Exceptionally in northerner Central European countries Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon 30. 05. 2016 – 04 -05 -2016

3. - RESULTS C. - DEFINING CONSERVATION STRATEGIES BASED ON EXPOSURE TO CLIMATE CHANGE Very different level of threat among clades Tunisian clades slightly endangered. In the Mediterranean Spanish coast very different patterns for both species. Overall there are in situ conservation locations for all clades although some times monitoring is required But for P. pinaster clades along the Mediterranean Spanish coast and Morroccan P. halepensis clades. Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon 30. 05. 2016 – 04 -05 -2016

3. - RESULTS C. - DEFINING CONSERVATION STRATEGIES BASED ON EXPOSURE TO CLIMATE CHANGE Atlantic Iberian Peninsula clade of P. pinaster absent unsuitable present suitable Current distribution Current projection SDM likely unsuitable uncertain ex situ likely suitable current 1. translocation current 2. in situ translocation midterm 1. translocation midterm 2. translocation Future suitability map Conservation proposal Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon 30. 05. 2016 – 04 -05 -2016

3. - RESULTS D. - EVALUATION OF CURRENT CONSERVATION EFFORT IN EUROPE Missing and overrepresented clades E. g. : 21/26 DCUs represented G 3/G 5 admixture zone in P. halepensis DCUs likely to become unsuitable Urgency of monitoring Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon 30. 05. 2016 – 04 -05 -2016

4. - DISCUSSION CONSERVATION GOAL To guarantee the maintenance of the species` potential to dynamically evolve and adapt to new emerging climatic conditions Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon 30. 05. 2016 – 04 -05 -2016

4. - DISCUSSION CONSERVATION GOAL To guarantee the maintenance of the species` potential to dynamically evolve and adapt to new emerging climatic conditions Majorly, in situ conservation should be enough: All analysed clades have high adaptive differentiation, high phenotypic plasticity and climatically stable areas Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon 30. 05. 2016 – 04 -05 -2016

4. - DISCUSSION CONSERVATION GOAL To guarantee the maintenance of the species` potential to dynamically evolve and adapt to new emerging climatic conditions Majorly, in situ conservation should be enough: All analysed clades have high adaptive differentiation, high phenotypic plasticity and climatically stable areas When not, will high genetic diversity and high phenotypic plasticity be enough? Relationship between resilience to climate change and genetic diversity Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon 30. 05. 2016 – 04 -05 -2016

4. - DISCUSSION CURRENT CONSERVATION EFFORTS IN EUROPE Evaluation of risk of habitat loss: new requirement to become a DCU Necessary to guide the selection, management, monitoring and conservation of DCUs All clades should be adequately represented Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon 30. 05. 2016 – 04 -05 -2016

5. - FINAL REMARKS 1. - Genomic and genetic information: essential for conservation management 2. - Standardized and systematic methodology to guide international conservation management plans Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon 30. 05. 2016 – 04 -05 -2016

5. - FINAL REMARKS 1. - Genomic and genetic information: essential for conservation management 2. - Standardized and systematic methodology to guide international conservation management plans A lot of work to do… Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon 30. 05. 2016 – 04 -05 -2016

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We thank funding from Adap. Con Spanish National Research Plan (CGL 2011 -30182 -C 02 -01) Tip. Tree (Biodiv. ERs. A-ERANET). Cost Action FP 1202 In addition we are grateful to EUFGIS national focal points and the EUFORGEN national coordinators the Santiago C. González-Martínez for insightful discussion Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon 30. 05. 2016 – 04 -05 -2016

MARÍA JESÚS SERRA VARELA maje. serra@gmail. com Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics Conference, IUFRO; Arcachon 30. 05. 2016 – 04 -05 -2016