Mapping and Modeling Subcommittee Update NTHMP Annual Meeting

Mapping and Modeling Subcommittee Update NTHMP Annual Meeting 27 January 2010 Susan Mc. Lean – NOAA Rob Witter – Oregon

Overview of Terms of Reference • Authority – The MMS will be considered the primary mechanism for NTHMP partner input to the mapping, modeling, and hazard components of the NTHMP. – The subcommittee’s actions and recommendations will be achieved by consensus, and considered to represent the collective will of those partners. – This authority is established within the context of PL 109 -427 and subject to the provisions of Sections 4, 5 and 6 of the Act, most particularly Section 5(c 1). January 2010 NTHMP Annual Meeting 2

Overview of Terms of Reference • Chairpersons & Members – Approved by a majority of the NTHMP CC • Co-Chairs: Susan Mc. Lean (NOAA) and Rob Witter (OR) • Members: Roger Hansen (AK), Jim Kirby (ATL), Rick Wilson (CA), Juan Horrillo (GOM), Megan Craw (HI), Aurelio Mercado (PR), Tim Walsh (WA), Bill Knight (TWC), John Goeke (Pacific Islands), Al Javois (USVI ) • Non-voting Members: Vasily Titov (NOAA), Elena Suleimani (AK), Aggeliki Barberopoulou (CA), Fai Cheung (HI), Joseph Zhang (OR), Lisa Taylor (NOAA) • Communications – Meetings are held twice yearly, in conjunction with the Annual NTHMP meeting and typically in the spring. • Communication is primarily by email and conference calls. • Notes and Action Items are maintained by the co-Chairs, who coordinate completion and post to the NTHMP web site. • Recommendations are forwarded to the appropriate organizations by the co. Chairs. January 2010 NTHMP Annual Meeting 3

MMS Strategies and Measures • STRATEGIES – Prioritize inundation map development – Provide guidance to regions for which no inundation maps exist – Ensure NTHMP-funded model code is shared • MEASURES – All NTHMP-funded models will meet established standards by 2012. – New NTHMP-funded maps will meet established guidelines by 2012. – Complete inundation maps for all threatened communities by 2013 (Washington, Oregon, California, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the U. S. Virgin Islands) – Complete inundation maps for 33% of highly- threatened communities by 2013 (in Alaska and the U. S. Pacific Island Territories) January 2010 NTHMP Annual Meeting 4

Overview of Tasks to Accomplish Measures Task Milestone Anticipated Completion Measure Nov 2009 NTHMP-funded maps meet standards 2012 Final Draft Complete 1. 1 Establish inundation map guidelines 1. 2 Prioritize communities for inundation mapping Nov 2009 Inundation maps DEM for threatened communities Priority List Complete 2. 1 DEM development in support of inundation Sept 2009 DEM development in support ofmapping inundation mapping Inundation maps for threatened communities Method for Development 1. 3 Establish benchmark procedures for models Sept 2010 NTHMP-funded. Plan models formeet 2010 standards 2012 1. 4 Propose process for sharing modeling codes Propose process sharing modeling Sept 2010 NTHMP-funded. Plan models formeet 2010 standards 2012 1. 5 Develop guidelines for non-mapped areas Develop guidelines for non-mapped Sept 2010 Provide guidance to regions for which no inundation Plan forexist 2010 maps 1. 6 a Propose method for models to meet NTHMP standards Sept 2011 NTHMP-funded models meet standards 2012 1. 7 Compare previous maps to NTHMP guidelines/best practices Sept 2011 NTHMP-funded maps meet standards 2012 1. 6 b Test/evaluate method for models to meet NTHMP standards Sept 2012 NTHMP-funded models meet standards 2012 1. 8 Review current mapping with respect to NTHMP guidelines Sept 2012 NTHMP-funded maps meet standards 2012 2. 2 Explore feasibility of quantitative hazard assessments Sept 2012 1. 9 Recommend quantitative Hazard Assessment Method Sept 2013 January 2010 NTHMP Annual Meeting 5

MMS Meeting Schedule to address Tasks Meeting / Workshop 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Focus MMS Meeting Task 1. 1 Task 1. 2 Task 1. 3 Task 1. 4 Task 1. 5 Task 1. 6 a Task 1. 7 Task 1. 6 b Task 1. 8 Task 1. 9 Spring 2010 Technical Workshop Task 2. 1 (workshop cancelled) Task 2. 2 Fall 2010 Benchmark Workshop January 2010 Task 1. 3 (new) NTHMP Annual Meeting 6

2009 Action Item Status – Task 1. 1 • Establish inundation map guidelines - Complete – Assigned by the NTHMP CC – Mapping and modeling draft guidelines developed at the April 2009 Spring meeting of the NTHMP MMS – Guidelines under final at NTHMP Annual Meeting – Issues • Differences between the State / Federal funding cycles and fiscal years generates confusion on deliverable dates. MMS is assuming “by 2010” means end of calendar year 2010. January 2010 NTHMP Annual Meeting 7

2009 Action Item Status – Task 1. 2 • Establish a prioritized list of communities for which to develop inundation maps - Complete – Assigned by the NTHMP CC – National DEM list developed and prioritized for 2010 – 2012 efforts. List will be reviewed and updated annually. – Success: List is being used to coordinate DEM development across NTHMP, NOAA Forecast, and other NOAA Projects – Issues • MMS developed National DEM priority list. Each DEM may have multiple priority communities. • MMS is requesting each NTHMP Partner to clearly list communities that have been mapped and communities that will be mapped in semi-annual reports. January 2010 NTHMP Annual Meeting 8

2009 Action Item Status – Task 2. 1 • DEM development in support of inundation mapping – Assigned by the NTHMP CC – CC approved Contingency Funding for NGDC to develop DEMs (from the National DEM list) for NTHMP Partners through MMS. – This solution negated the requirement for a DEM-focused workshop (proposed) in 2009 – Issues • National DEM priority list will be reviewed annually based on input from NTHMP Partners to ensure priority communities are covered and adjust priorities based on data and other influences. January 2010 NTHMP Annual Meeting 9

Summary MMS 2009 Annual Meeting • Held in Boulder, CO April 2729, 2009 • Addressed Tasks 1. 1 and 1. 2 – Developed a national DEM Priority List and Inundation Mapping List – Completed Draft Mapping and Modeling Guidelines (finalized Guidelines at National Meeting) • Drafted Benchmark Procedures (2010 Task 1. 3) January 2010 NTHMP Annual Meeting NTHMP MMS Spring Meeting, April 2009 10

Mapping and Modeling Subcommittee 2010 Planned Activities Task Name NTHMP Performance Metric Supported Requested Funds Spring 2010 Annual MMS Meeting and Fall 2010 Benchmark Workshop 1. 3 Establish benchmark procedures for models All NTHMP-funded models will meet established standards by 2012 1. 4 All NTHMP-funded model code shall be open source Ensure NTHMP-funded model code is shared 1. 5 Develop guidelines to establish areas of inundation for non-mapped and low hazard areas Provide guidance to regions for which no inundation maps exist concerning tsunami threatened areas $60 K ($20 K MMS focus meeting & $40 k Benchmark Workshop- Travel to be Executed within NOAA) DEM Development Carried Out by NGDC Develop high-resolution DEMs for 4 communities January 2010 Develop inundation maps for all communities with high tsunami hazard $150 K Total Contingency Funding Request for 2010 (Approved) $210 K NTHMP Annual Meeting 11

2010 Action Item Status – Task 1. 3 • Establish a benchmark procedure for models by 2010 – Assigned by the NTHMP CC – Action is in the planning phase with draft benchmark procedures developed – Will plan and hold a Benchmark Workshop in Fall 2010 – Issues • Cost for workshop not well known. $60 K approved must cover both the workshop and MMS 2010 Focus Meeting. Funding does not cover cost of benchmarking models. January 2010 NTHMP Annual Meeting 12

2010 Action Item Status – Task 1. 4 • Propose process for sharing modeling code to ensure any NTHMP-funded model code is shared – Assigned by the NTHMP CC • “To improve coordination between the different mapping efforts funded by the NTHMP, source code used to compute expected runup should be shared. ” – Status: Would like additional clarification prior to addressing this task at the MMS annual meeting in the Spring 2010 – Issues • Are there constraints on processes proposed, anticipating that managing versioning, sharing, and support may require additional resources? • NOAA is working on a plan that may impact access to NOAA model source code. MMS would need to see the plan to assess impact on this milestone. January 2010 NTHMP Annual Meeting 13

2010 Action Item Status – Task 1. 5 • Develop guidelines to establish areas of inundation for non-mapped and low hazard areas by 2010 – Assigned by the NTHMP CC – Status: Plan to address this task at the MMS annual meeting in the Spring 2010 – Issues • None at this time January 2010 NTHMP Annual Meeting 14

Milestone Schedule - Oct 2008 to Sep 2010 (Proposed in 2008) Objective Task Key Milestone/Deliverables Expected Date of Completion Funding Request $20, 000 Objective 1. Annual 3 -Day MMS Meetings in 2009 and 2010 Task 1. 1 Establish inundation map guidelines Nov 2009 Task 1. 2 Prioritize communities for inundation mapping Nov 2009 Task 1. 3 Establish benchmark procedures for models Sept 2010 Task 1. 4 Propose process for sharing modeling codes Sept 2010 Task 1. 5 Develop guidelines for non-mapped areas Sept 2010 $10, 000 Objective 2. Bi-Annual Technical Workshop Task 2. 1 DEM development in support of inundation mapping Sept 2009 Total Requested for 2009 - 2010: January 2010 $20, 000 NTHMP Annual Meeting $50, 000 15

Milestone Schedule - Oct 2008 to Sep 2010 (Contingency Funding Request in 2009) Objective Task Key Milestone/Deliverables Expected Date of Completion Funding Required $12, 355* Objective 1. Annual 3 -Day MMS Meeting Held April 2009 Task 1. 1 Establish inundation map guidelines May 2009 Task 1. 2 Prioritize communities for inundation mapping Dec 2009 Objective 2. Annual 3 -Day MMS Spring Meeting & Fall Workshop in 2010 Task 1. 3 Establish benchmark procedures for models Nov 2010 Task 1. 4 Propose process for sharing modeling codes Nov 2010 Task 1. 5 Develop guidelines for non-mapped areas Nov 2010 Task 2. 1 DEM development workshop cancelled – Apr 2009 Fall 2009 (New) Host NTHMP Benchmarking Workshop Oct-Nov 2010 $20, 000 $40, 000 Total Requested for 2009 - 2010: $72, 355 Total Contingency Funds Approved for 2009 - 2010: $60, 000 * Final cost of April 2009 meeting after $8, 301 carryover and cancellation of DEM Workshop, transfer pending January 2010 NTHMP Annual Meeting 16

Extra funding and reporting slides for use as needed or time available ADDITIONAL SLIDES

National DEM Priority List • Developed by the NTHMP MMS April 2009 Meeting • NTHMP MMS funding 4 DEMs per year – Developed at NGDC, typically covering multiple communities – Developed to Partner / MMS standards & guidelines – Priority influenced by data availability, upcoming data collection campaigns, NOAA DEM development, etc. • MMS will revisit list annually and adjust as necessary • List already improving coordination between NOAA and Partner States January 2010 NTHMP Annual Meeting 18

NTHMP DEM Web Map Viewer http: //map. ngdc. noaa. gov/website/mgg/nthmp/ • Share-point for NTHMP Partner DEMs • Identify completed & planned DEMs • See extents • View information about DEM • Contact source or download DEM January 2010 NTHMP Annual Meeting 19

MMS Milestone Schedule Oct 2010 to Sept 2011 Objective Task Expected Date of Completion Key Milestone/Deliverables $20, 000 Objective 1. Annual 3 -Day MMS Spring Meeting in 2011 Task 1. 6 Task 1. 7 Propose method for models to meet NTHMP standards Nov 2011 Compare previous maps to NTHMP guidelines/best practices Nov 2011 Total Meeting Support: Inundation maps for all communities Develop 4 high-resolution DEMs with high tsunami hazard * Contingency funding January 2010 Funding Request NTHMP Annual Meeting Dec 2011 $20, 000 $150, 000* Total DEM Support: $150, 000 Total Funding Request: $170, 000 20

MMS Milestone Schedule Oct 2011 to Sept 2012 Objective Task Expected Date of Completion Key Milestone/Deliverables $20, 000 Objective 1. Annual 3 -Day Spring MMS Meeting in 2012 Task 1. 6 Task 1. 8 Test/evaluate method for models to meet NTHMP standards Review current mapping with respect to NTHMP guidelines Sept 2012 Objective 2. Bi-Annual Technical Workshop Task 2. 2 Explore feasibility of quantitative hazard assessments Sept 2012 Total Meeting Support: Inundation maps for all communities Develop 4 high-resolution DEMs Dec 2011 with high tsunami hazard Total DEM Support: * Contingency funding January 2010 NTHMP Annual Meeting Funding Request Total Funding Request: $22, 000 $42, 000 $150, 000* $150, 000 $192, 000 21

MMS Milestone Schedule Oct 2012 to Sept 2013 Objective Task Expected Date of Completion Key Milestone/Deliverables Objective 1. Annual 3 -Day MMS Meeting in 2013 Task 1. 9 Recommend quantitative hazard assessment methodology Sept 2013 Total Meeting Support: Inundation maps for all communities Develop 4 high-resolution DEMs with high tsunami hazard * Contingency funding $20, 000 Dec 2011 $150, 000* Total DEM Support: $150, 000 Total Funding Request: $172, 000 Total Requested for 2009 to 2012: (includes revised budget request for 2009 and 2010 spring meetings & DEM development) January 2010 Funding Request $20, 000 NTHMP Annual Meeting $606, 355 22