MAPE or percent error or MSE mean absolute

MAPE or percent error or MSE? mean absolute percent error (MAPE) Average of the absolute values of a set of percent errors. Click here for Hint

forecast bias or assignable variation exogenous variation? or exogenous variation A non-repeating deviation in a time series created by a distinct, identifiable external influence. Click here for Hint

extrapolation or seasonality causal modeling? or causal modeling Predicting an outcome by identifying its relationship with one or other factors. Click here for Hint

time series decomposition or time series or regression analysis? time series decomposition Modeling observed values based on identifiable component influences. Click here for Hint

exogenous variation or cyclic variation or time series decomposition? cyclic variation Seasonality with a cycle time longer than 1 year; generally associated with economic influences on time series data. Click here for Hint

MAPE or MAD or ME? mean error (ME) An average of forecast errors; useful for indicating forecast bias. Click here for Hint

natural variation or forecasting or error The difference between an observed value and a predicted value. Click here for Hint error?

correlation coefficient or coefficient of determination or regression analysis? coefficient of determination Proportion of variation in a dependent variable that is explained by a regression model. Click here for Hint

Delphi method or expert opinion panel Or jury of executive opinion? expert opinion panel A small group of highly knowledgeable people who develop prediction through discussion and consensus. Click here for Hint

forecasting or time series regression analysis? or forecasting Predicting future events. Click here for Hint

time series decomposition or extrapolation or time series? extrapolation Projecting existing data into the future. Click here for Hint

Delphi method or expert opinion panel Or jury of executive opinion? Delphi method A qualitative forecasting technique in which experts achieve consensus through a blind process via a facilitator. Click here for Hint

error or trend or forecast bias? forecast bias A tendency to create errors that are predominantly positive or negative. Click here for Hint

time series or naïve forecast or trend? naïve forecast Assuming a future value equals the most recent actual value available. Click here for Hint

tracking signal or forecast bias responsiveness? responsiveness The degree to which a technique modifies forecasts to reflect recent changes in past data. Click here for Hint or

correlation coefficient or coefficient of determination or regression analysis? correlation coefficient A measure of the strength of any linear relationship between two sets of observations. Click here for Hint

seasonality or regression analysis dependent variable? or dependent variable An outcome of interest influenced by one or more factors. Click here for Hint

Delphi method or expert opinion panel Or jury of executive opinion? jury of executive opinion An expert panel composed of managers. Click here for Hint

known unknown or unknown trend? or known unknown A source of uncertainty known to a decision maker, usually evident in past experience or data. Click here for Hint

MAPE or MAD or ME? mean absolute deviation (MAD) An average of the absolute values of a set of forecast errors. Click here for Hint

MAPE or weighted moving average simple exponential smoothing? weighted moving average Predicts a value by calculating a weighted average of a fixed number of most-recent actual values. Click here for Hint or

time series or seasonal relatives exogenous variation? seasonal relatives A set of numerical values that describe a seasonal pattern. Click here for Hint or

independent variable or regression analysis or simple exponential smoothing? independent variable A factor used to predict an outcome of interest. Click here for Hint

crowdsourcing or Delphi method expert opinion panel? crowdsourcing Crowd outsourcing; combining independent efforts of many people to accomplish a task. Click here for Hint or

MSE or MAD or ME? mean squared error (MSE) An average of the squared values of a set of forecast errors. Click here for Hint

exogenous variation or natural variation or error? natural variation The randomness inherent, in a process, also known as random variation. Click here for Hint

forecast bias or MAPE or percent error? percent error Forecast error divided by the corresponding actual value. Click here for Hint

planning horizon or known unknown extrapolation? planning horizon The farthest point in the future considered in decision making. Click here for Hint or

seasonal relatives or seasonality A repeating pattern. Click here for Hint or trend?

regression analysis or time series or simple exponential smoothing? simple exponential smoothing Predicting a future value by combining the previous prediction and some portion of the error in that prediction. Click here for Hint

regression analysis or time series simple moving average? or simple moving average Predicts a value by averaging a fixed number of most-recent actual values. Click here for Hint

time series or seasonality planning horizon? time series Values observed in chronological order. Click here for Hint or

Black Swan or naïve forecast or error? Black Swan An incident of extreme consequence, unexpected or considered highly improbable. Click here for Hint

known unknown or unknown error? or unknown Uncertainty omitted from planning because the decision maker is unaware of its presence. Click here for Hint

forecast bias or assignable variation or MSE? assignable variation Deviations with a specific cause or source. Click here for Hint

MAPE weighted moving average or tracking signal? or tracking signal Ratio of the sum of a set of forecast errors over the MAD of that forecast. Click here for Hint

correlation coefficient or coefficient of determination or regression analysis? regression analysis Using mathematical relationships between two or more variables to predict future values. Click here for Hint

known unknown or tracking signal trend A sustained period of growth or decline. Click here for Hint or trend?