MAM rainfall CPT probabilistic MAM rainfall forecast CCA

MAM rainfall

CPT probabilistic MAM rainfall forecast CCA experiments: 1) Predictor is observed SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over Oct (data source: NOAA ERSSTv 3 b, obtained from the. IRI data library) 2) Predictor is predicted SST over the tropical Atlantic and Pacific over MAM (data source: NOAA CPCFSv 2, Oct(initialisation)

Experiment 1

CPT MAM rainfall forecast Data: Predictor = Oct SST observations 1952 -2014 140 E-20 W and 30 N-20 S (i. e. tropical Pacific & Atlantic) [Source: ERSSTv 3 b, from IRI data library] Predictand = MAM rainfall for 165 Caribbean stations 1979 -2014 Parameters: CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 1 X modes: max = 8; optimum = 8 Y modes: max = 8; optimum = 5 Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 121 stations included in hindcast and forecast Goodness index (transformed Y) = 0. 057 !! Very Limited! !

ROC area maps

CCA modes

Experiment 1 MAM Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps NORMAL BELOW ABOVE

Experiment 2

CPT MAM rainfall forecast Data: Predictor = MAM simulated SST 1952 -2014 140 E-20 W and 30 N-20 S (i. e. tropical Pacific & Atlantic) [Source: NOAA CPC – CFSv 2, Nov initialisation] Predictand = MAM rainfall for 165 Caribbean stations 1979 -2014 Parameters: CCA modes: max = 5; optimum = 1 X modes: max = 8; optimum = 1 Y modes: max = 8; optimum = 1 Missing Y data threshold: 20% missing values, 10% missing stations, leading to 153 stations included in hindcast and forecast Goodness index (transformed Y) = 0. 091 !! Very Limited!!

ROC area maps

CCA modes

Experiment 2 MAM Rainfall Forecast Tercile maps NORMAL BELOW ABOVE