Malaria Eradication in the Americas A Retrospective Analysis

Malaria Eradication in the Americas: A Retrospective Analysis of Childhood Exposure Hoyt Bleakley

會感染人類的四種瘧疾 惡性瘧原蟲 三日瘧原蟲 間日瘧原蟲 卵形瘧原蟲 Plasmodium falciparum Plasmodium malariae Plasmodium vivax Plasmodium ovale 非洲 美洲 ＊重修蟲 美洲 圖片來源：Wikipedia

消滅瘧疾運動 Charles Louis Alphonse Laveran （法國軍醫） Ronald Ross （英國醫師）

Malaria persists in tropical regions up to the present day� p Does malaria hold back economic progress? p n n p Sachs: yes, big time. Narrower (but still important!) question in this paper: Does childhood exposure to malaria inhibit learning and subsequent labor productivity. Why would we expect an effect?

Research Question p Childhood malaria ⇒ Learning, Wages?

How does this paper try to answer it? Examine large malaria eradication program in Americas (US South, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico) p Eradication was suddenly possible for ‘exogenous’ reasons p Compare people born before the eradication to people born after it → first difference p Further compare across regions of counties in which pre-eradication malaria was high and low → second difference p ‘Difference-in-differences’ p

Figure 1. Malaria Incidence Before and After the Eradication Campaign, Colombia

Figure 1. Malaria Incidence Before and After the Eradication Campaign, Colombia

MODEL: Pre/Post Comparisons p p J: state or municipal Y: social or economic index n n p Mj, pre : malaria intensity n n p p Occupational Income Score Duncan’s Socioeconomic Index(SEI). malaria mortality malaria ecology (Hong) before the campaign. X: state control variables α: constant term.

經濟指標 p Occupational Income Score: n n p 職業分門別類, 比較收入相對高低. 分數較高, 該職業收入報酬較高, 且有可能聲望較高 Duncan’s Socioeconomic Index(SEI): n 考慮了職業聲望, 收入, 教育長度的綜合性社會經濟指 標 http: //www. hist. umn. edu/~rmccaa/ipums-europe/usa/volii/incsei. html c. f. : The Comparability of Occupations and the Generation of Income Scores-Matthew Sobek

Figure 3. Cross-Cohort Differences in Income versus Malaria

Figure 3. Cross-Cohort Differences in Income versus Malaria

IV. Panel Estimates Cohorts born after eradication have higher income p Two evidence p n n Pooled regression Graph of cohort-specific between income and pre-campaign

A. Pooled Regression Analysis j : area of birth , t : census year , k : year of birth

B. Graphical Evidence: Cohort-Specific Estimates