Making Realworld Predictions from Multicountry Research Trends WAPOR

Making Real-world Predictions from Multi-country Research Trends WAPOR Toronto Conference May 20, 2019 Doug Miller, President, Globe. Scan Foundation

Our Purpose To Demonstrate: “We can do far worse in predicting the near future than to draw from recent trends in public opinion. ” The importance of tracking democracy and policy metrics over time, in a consistent and sustainable manner, across countries. Surface some best-practice approaches to making evidencebased predictions from longitudinal data. Vital role for WAPOR et al. to protect, promote and enable the conducting and publishing of such metrics over time.

Evidence-based prediction: “The World in 2016” (published December 2015) 3

“The World in 2016” (cont. ) 4

Globe. Scan RADAR and BBC Methodology (G 20 countries) • Representative samples of approximately 1, 000 adults per country in each of 21 countries • Some urban-only surveying in certain developing countries • Face-to-face and telephone interviewing between December 2016 and May 2017 5

st 1 Prediction: “A jolt is to be expected during the 2016 U. S. election. ”

Free and Fair Elections 2002– 2015

Governed by the Will of the People?

Evidence-based prediction: “The World in 2016” (published December 2015) “ A guest writer, Doug Miller of Globe. Scan, expected a ‘jolt’ in America’s election season, on the basis of a prescient reading of opinion polls showing the depths of political disaffection there. “A low-trust political context is similar to a stressed physical environment ” where invasive species thrive”. - Daniel Franklin, Editor, World In 2017 10

New On-Line Methodology - 2019 • Representative online samples of approximately 1, 000 adults per country in each of 25 countries • Samples representative of online population • Online surveying between April and May 2019 11

Country Governed by the Will of the People “Yes, ” UK and USA vs Average of 16 Countries, * 2002– 2019 2002 44 2011 34 29 27 25 26 23 21 2015 18 2019 (online) 12 UK A * ge US try n ou 6 -c ra ve a 1 R 19_5 _UKUS *Includes Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Japan, Kenya, Mexico, Nigeria, Russia, South Korea, Spain, Turkey, UK, and USA. Not all countries were asked in all years. Q. Would you say that this country is governed by the will of the people? 12

Elections in my Country Are Free and Fair “Yes, ” UK and USA vs Average of 11 Countries, * 2002– 2019 81 2002 67 58 51 45 2015 54 48 44 34 UK 2019 (online) e* A US y ntr u -co 1 1 g era av R 19_6 _UKUS *Includes Canada, Germany, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Russia, South Korea, Spain, Turkey, UK, and USA Q. Do you feel that elections in this country are free and fair? 13

Net Trust* in Institutions Average of 25 Countries, **2019 14 Q. Please indicate how much you trust each of the following institutions to operate in the best interest of our society. Would you say you have a lot of trust, some trust, not much trust, or no trust at all in…?

nd 2 Prediction: “Ethical consumerism to reach breakout proportions, via Millennials. ”

Have Rewarded Companies Seen as Socially Responsible “Have Done, ” OECD vs Non-OECD Countries, 1999– 2019 18 -34 highest age cohort (33% across 25 countries in 2019) 70 60 50 40 34 30 27 Non-OECD countries 20 10 0 99 19 07 20 09 20 11 20 13 20 15 20 17 20 19 20 ) ne li (on R 19_7_OECD countries include Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Mexico, South Korea, Spain, Turkey, UK and USA; non-OECD countries include Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Russia, and South Africa. Not all countries were asked in all years. 16 OECD countries Q. Over the past year, have you considered rewarding a socially responsible company by either buying their products or speaking positively about the company to others? Would you say you have…?

rd 3 Prediction: “ 2016 another tough year for concluding trade agreements. ”

Support for Trade Barriers / Tariffs Agree (“Strongly Agree” + “Somewhat Agree”), OECD vs Non-OECD Countries, 2002– 2019 90 80 77 74 70 Non-OECD countries 60 50 40 2 0 20 06 20 08 20 13 20 15 20 17 ) ne 20 19 20 li (on R 19_4 c _OECD countries include Australia, Canada, France, Germany, South Korea, Spain, Turkey, UK, and USA; non. OECD countries include Brazil, China, Kenya, Nigeria, and Russia. Not all countries were asked in all years. 18 Q. For each of the following statements, please tell me if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree. – It is important to protect [Country’s] industries and jobs by using tariffs and other barriers against competing products from other countries.

Prediction - Best Practices “We can do far worse in predicting the near future than to draw from recent trends in public opinion. ” Two of three predictions made in The Economist “Year in 2016” article proved correct, based on multi-country polling trends. Best practice = decade-long trend + 2/3 majority view today. Vital role for WAPOR, its Chapters and members to ensure key polling-based democratic metrics and policy views are tracked regularly and sustainably (in spite of being widely undervalued).

New Prediction: “Governments will require more responsible corporate behaviour. ”

Governments Should Require Large Companies to Work toward a Better Society Agree (“Strongly Agree” + “Somewhat Agree”), Average of 18 Countries, * 2000– 2019 70 63 60 50 40 30 02 20 04 20 06 20 08 20 10 20 16 20 *Countries include Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Mexico, Nigeria, Russia, South Korea, Spain, Turkey, UK, and USA. Not all countries were asked in all years. 21 Q. Please tell me if you strongly agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree with each of the following statements – Our government should create laws that require large companies to go beyond their traditional economic role and work to make a better society, even though this could

Governments Should Require Large Companies to Work toward a Better Society Agree (“Strongly Agree” + “Somewhat Agree”), UK vs USA, 2002– 2019 70 67 UK USA 60 51 50 40 30 02 003 004 005 006 2 2 20 08 20 0 1 20 13 20 16 ) ne 20 19 20 li (on R 19_4 e_UKUS 22 Q. Please tell me if you strongly agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree with each of the following statements – Our government should create laws that require large companies to go beyond their traditional economic role and work to make a better society, even though this could

Conclusions There is a vital democratic and policy role for public polling metrics. Country coverage, topics and frequency of these metrics not sufficient. More collaboration is needed. Recent trends and events, plus declining trust in new “public squares” (i. e. , the media and Internet) give cause for concern about the future health of democracies. The UK and US public opinion contexts will continue to be fertile ground for re-invention and step-function change. Vital role for WAPOR, its Chapters and members to forge ahead!

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