Mainstreaming climate variability and change in flood management
Main-streaming climate variability and change in flood management Avinash Tyagi Director, Climate and Water World Meteorological Organization 4 th International Symposium on Flood Defence Toronto, 8 th May 2008
New IPCC Findings • Confirms impacts we are already witnessing • Impacts dependent upon both climate change and adaptive capacity • Emphasizes the importance of adaptation • Recommends a portfolio approach
Manifested through…. Air temperature Sea level rise Precipitation form, timing and quantity
Settling on floodplains has enormous advantages www. gaestehaus-loreley. de SPIEGEL ONLINE 2004 and at the same time poses great risks
Climate change will intensify the hydrologic cycle… changes in the averages/ trends changes in variability (magnitude, severity, duration)
Hazards – Floods – Droughts – Flow regime changes
Floods and Droughts “A warmer climate, with its increased climate variability, will increase the risk of both floods and droughts” IPCC AR 4, 2007 • Difficulties in creating scenarios of changes in rainfall as applied to « flood-producing » events • Influence of geology • Anthropogenic changes may be more pronounced • Droughts have many definitions and the risks have climatic and non-climatic factors influencing it • Critically dependant on water management practices
Flood damages are increasing…
Challenges of Flood Management Population increase Securing livelihoods Absolute safety from flooding is a myth
Challenges of Flood Management cumulus. geol. iastate. edu/ Changes in decision making processes Ecosystem Conservation Climate variability and change www. awitness. org
Adaptations • Future vulnerability depends on development pathways, • Extensive adaptation is required to reduce vulnerability, • Adaptations will be necessary to address impacts, • A portfolio of adaptation options have to be studied.
Integrated flood management Water Resources Management and Flood Management IWRM
Urban Flood Hydrologic Cycle RAIN LAND DETENTION EVAPORATION SURFACE PIPE or OPEN DRAIN WATER SUPPLY WASTE WATER SEWER EVAPORATION RETENTION REGIONAL RETENTION DETENTION WATER QUALITY CONTROL SEWERAGE TREATMENT PLANT SOIL RIVER SYSTEM GROUND WATER OCEAN URBANISED
Urban floods • integrated land use planning to achieve multiple uses for urban land, • capture and storage of roof runoff in order to reduce demands on the potable water supply, • ponding of stormwater runoff for use in non-potable water supply, • use of infiltration facilities to reduce direct storm runoff and increase low flows in rivers.
Integrated Flood Management PRINCIPLES Risk Management Water Cycle as a whole Multi-hazard approach River basin as a planning unit Inter-disciplinary Stakeholders participation
Integrated Flood Management: Objectives –Sustainable development: balancing development needs and flood risks –Maximising benefits: ensure livelihood security and poverty alleviation thereby reducing vulnerability –Minimising loss of life –Environmental preservation
Requirements of IFM Clear and objective policies with a multidisciplinary approach supported with appropriate – Legislation and regulations; – Institutional structures for proper coordination and appropriate linkages; – Economic instruments; – Enabling participatory processes; and – Information management and exchange mechanisms.
Difficulties in Adaptations • Lack of basic information • Insufficient monitoring and observation systems • Settlements in vulnerable areas • Appropriate political, technological and institutional framework • Lack of capacity • Low income SOURCE: IPCC Working Group II Report, 2007
Mission of APFM “ to support countries in the integrated management of floods within the overall framework of integrated water resources management. ”
Flood Management Policy Series • Instrumental in bridging disciplinary gaps for IFM • Expert-group based • Peer-reviewed • Specific target groups – Policy Makers – Flood Managers – Experts in respective special fields • Target group adapted language and format
Flood forecasting, warning and response system a Critical Chain of Events and Actions Data Communication Forecast Hydrological Data transmission Flood Observations Forecasting Decision Support Decisions Notification Coordination Appropriate Individuals & Groups Preparedness, Response and Decisions Actions Evacuation and Rescue operations
adaptive management ……. . Basin Flood Planning Flood Proofing and Building Codes Flood Regulations Flood risk assessment
Conclusions… Use resilient policies: Integrated Flood Management Beginning today based on imperfect climate information is far better than no action at all. Use today’s available science to discuss possible future scenarios that factor the possibility that the future MAY NOT look like the past. “Long-range planning does not deal with future decisions, but with the future of present decisions. ” Peter Drucker
For more Information please visit www. apfm. info
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