Maestria en Cambio Global Centro Virtual de Cambio

Maestria en Cambio Global, Centro Virtual de Cambio Climático y Cli. VIA- Network, FP-UNA Scenario Planning for Climate Adaptation Cli. VIA-Network (http: //clivianet. pol. una. py/) Gustavo J Nagy Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de la República Montevideo, Uruguay Facultad Politécnica, Universidad Nacional de Asunción, Paraguay Cli. VIA Network

Centro Virtual de Cambio Climático CVCC FP-UNA Cli. VIA-Network

Case Studies 1 Master of Science in Global Change (MGC) (FP-UNA). 2 “Cátedra Libre” of Climate Change. Universidad Central (UCV), Universidad Simón Bolívar (USB) Caracas, Venezuela. 3 Climate Eco. Health and Vulnerability Index. Climate Change and Environmental Health Unit (UCCLIMAS), Universidad Mayor de San Andrés (UMSA), La Paz, Bolivia. 4 VIA Assessment in Coastal Areas of South America (SAVIACoast). Universidad Simón Bolívar (USB), Venezuela, and Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de la República (FCUdela. R), Uruguay). 5 Scenario Planning (“Thinking of Futures” ). Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de la República (FC-Udela. R), Uruguay, Universidad Simón Bolívar (USB), Venezuela, and Cli. VIA-Net. Cli. VIA Network

MSc in Global Change (MCG), FP-UNA, Paraguay "Emphasis must be put on building capacity to develop a community of experts in Climate Science Management and the co-production of knowledge aimed at increasing public awareness and trust, through a participatory and informed process" (Coronel et al. , 2015). The MSc in Global Change (MCG) is a university-based effort from across the spectrum of the natural and social sciences, engineering, and health at the Facultad Politécnica of the Universidad Nacional de Asunción (FPUNA), Paraguay. This programme was developed in 2014 aimed at being an agent for sustainability and climate change teaching and research, a worldwide trend proposed by Barth (2015) and UNESCO (2016). Cli. VIA Network tomado de Harbottle 2013

As society faces unprecedented and increasingly urgent challenges associated with accelerating global environmental change and its impacts, and increasing inequality, new opportunities for higher education (HE) are emerging throughout the world to be change agents for sustainability including goals on climate change, growth, and health (Stephens et al. , 2008; Barth, 2015). Cli. VIA Network

Goals and curricula The goal of the MGC is to build capacity on global change, climate variability, climate risks, and VIA assessments in order to conduct research and practice framed on the principles of sustainability linked with 1) ESS, 2) IDR, 3) Po, and 4) CBA approaches. Curricula seek to develop a common scientific language and basic knowledge across disciplines in order to face the challenge of filling the gaps among disciplines, and between the academia and society, as suggested by Rieckmann (2012) and Grossfeld et al. (2013). Cli. VIA Network

Earth System Science & Global Change Cli. VIA-Net programmes focus on i) interdisciplinarity (IDR), ii) partnership with stakeholders and decisionmakers and iii) problem orientation (Po). Examples of integrative top-down ESS-based and bottom-up experiences are Practice-oriented Research (Po. R) and Problem orientation (Po) approaches. A major difficulty in cross-disciplinary science is to find a proper common language, where people from different disciplines can explain their research question and contribute to solution strategies. Consequently, these gaps are filled by providing a scientific education and basic and expert knowledge on ESS (Grossfeld et al. , 2013). Cli. VIA Network

Goals and curricula Ongoing experiences are focusing on the application of systems thinking and inquirybased approaches to teaching and learning about the interactions between Earth Systems and climate risks (e. g. floodings, vector-borne diseases) Harbottle Consulting

Goals and curricula Graduated practice-oriented researchers and problemoriented practitioners might be able to understand climate risks and be able to analyse, produce, and/or manage climate and socio-economic scenarios, VIA assessments, environmental changes, hydroclimatic variability and extremes, and well-being in Paraguay and the Rio de la Plata river basin. Emphasis is given to the links between adaptation options, Intra- and intergenerational equity, and sustainability. Cli. VIA Network

Climate Change and Its Impacts: Connecting Local Variability and Knowledge in a Global System Brown International Advanced Research Institutes 2016 Convening Faculty: Meredith Hastings and Siri Veland Participatory scenario planning for climate change adaptation and coastal hazards: "Thinking of alternative Futures“ or “The Future begins Today” Gustavo J Nagy Associate Professor of Environmental Sciences, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de la República (FC-Udela. R), Montevideo, Uruguay. Visiting Professor of Global Change and Climate Risks, Facultad Politécnica, Universidad Nacional de Asunción (FP-UNA), Paraguay. Former IPCC Working Group II (Vulnerability, Impact and Adaptation) Chapter 13: Latin America, Lead Author (2003 -07) Climate Vulnerability, Impact and Adaptation (VIA) Network, Climate Change Virtual Center, FP-UNA Researcher in Geosciences, Uruguayan Basic Sciences Program (PEDECIBA) Researcher, Uruguay National Research System (SNI-ANII) Cli. VIA-Net BIARI 2016, Brown International Advanced Research Institutes: 2016 Climate Change and Its Impacts: Connecting Local Variability and Knowledge in a Global System Providence, RI, USA, 4 -18 June 2016

Using Scenarios to Explore Climate Change National Park Service, U. S. Department of the Interior Climate Change Response Program 2013 • Climate change adaptation requires us to continue to learn from the past, but be “forward looking, ” anticipate plausible but unprecedented conditions, and expect surprises. • In this context, we must revisit our management goals and “desired conditions, ” since frequently these describe our expectations based on historic conditions. • To that end, scenario work explores and describes characteristics of several plausible futures, enabling managers to consider how to define and meet their goals (desired conditions) under changing, and new circumstances.

Predictability & Uncertainty Degree Forecasting Scenario Planning Predictability Time Harbottle Consulting

Cli. VIA Network

International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management Special issue Call for papers The Role of Higher Education Institutions in Addressing the Mitigation and Adaptation Challenges …offering an overview of university-based research efforts and projects on climate change, and to provide researchers from across the spectrum of the natural and social sciences with an opportunity to introduce innovative research methods, present the results of empirical research or showcase research initiatives focusing on climate change mitigation and adaptation. IJCCSM, Chief Editor: Dr Walter Leal Filho, HAW, Germany; Emerald Publishing, Behavioural and Social Sciences, SCOPUS. IF : 0. 8. Cli. VIA Network

What is / why/ what for is Cli. VIA-Net? • The Cli. VIA-Net is a by-product of the development of the Master of Science in Global Change (MCG) of the FP-UNA from 2011 -14 (Coronel et al. , 2015). • Cli. VIA-Net builds upon previous experiences intended to cooperate on global change, climate risks, vulnerability assessments and indicators, and adaptation initiatives in communities (Ferrara et al. , 2012), water resources (Coronel et al. , 2015), well-being and health in relation to climate extremes in Bolivia, Paraguay and Uruguay (Aparicio-Effen et al. , 2016 a, b; Nagy et al. , 2016 a), and in coastal areas of South America (Villamizar et al. , 2016). • The network was formalised in 2016 (http: //clivianet. poliagile. com). This coalition includes academic Cli. VIA Network groups and programmes from Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay and

The overall question, goal and objectives Overall question: How to face from the academia the challenges posed by a changing climate on the natural and human environment? Goal: to introduce the approach for education, research and practice (ERP) undertaken by the Climate Vulnerability, Impact and Adaptation Network (Cli. VIANet). Objectives: To i) highlight the foundation concepts and approaches of the network as used in this article; ii) present five education, research and/or practicefocused case studies and how they include the key concepts, and iii), achieve a "Science for/of Cli. VIA Network

The methodological approach …. a series of case studies undertaken by academic coalitions, and discussions to create a network linked by similar climate-related problems to be solved at the academic level. It relies on both foundation concepts and a sequence of reasoning for solving them which is expressed in five case studies. Cli. VIA Network

Definitions of key terms and foundation concepts Adaptation “Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploit beneficial opportunities” (UKCIP, 2014). Sustainability “… involves devising a human society which ensures their quality of life in ways which simultaneously protect and enhance the earth's life support systems under the principles, values, and practices of sustainable development into all aspects of education and learning”(WCED, 1987; UNDESD, 2014). Interdisciplinary research (IDR) “A process of answering a question, solving a problem, or addressing a topic that is too broad or complex to be dealt with adequately by a single discipline or profession” (Klein and Newell, 1998). Cli. VIA Network

Earth System Science (ESS) “The application of systems thinking to Earth Sciences which provide a physical basis for understanding the world in which we live and upon which humankind seeks to achieve sustainability” (Ruzek, 2007). “It is based on highly interdisciplinary research, demanding a broad basic knowledge of the different research aspects, their feedbacks, and interconnections” (Grossfeld et al. , 2013). Participatory Practice-oriented research (Po. R) “Involves inquiry into the methods, systems, programs, and policies of professional practice. In a case study context, this means an investigation of a particular example, or case, related to some aspect of practice. The goal of the practice-oriented research is to utilize research knowledge to enhance the development and implementation of practice and policy" (Marshall, 2010). . . [It] relates to projects that focus on the connection between research and practice "From knowledge into taking action" including bottom-up and top-down actions, local and scientific knowledge, and a vast array of stakeholders…. (Gaillard and Cli. VIA Network tomado de IPCC 2104

Problem orientation (Po)“The quest to formulate research questions that are most likely to provide the answers that actors need” (Kueffer and Hirsch Hadorn, 2008). Community-based adaptation (CBA) “Community-based adaptation operates at the local level in communities that are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. It identifies, assists, and implements community-based development activities that strengthen the capacity of local people to adapt to living in a riskier and less predictable climate” (Ayers and Forsyth, 2009). Eco. Health: an Ecosystem approach to health for a global sustainability agenda. "A field of research, education, and practice that impulse transdisciplinary frameworks of healthresearch and partnership projects with stakeholders and affected communities with a view to developing environmentally sustainable, community-based interventions Cli. VIA Network tomado de Harbottle 2013

• Science for/of Adaptation: ……. . the following comprehensive statement of Swart et al. (2014) blends many of the definitions presented above and the goals of Cli. VIA-Net: “Participatory, practice-oriented research with strong stakeholder participation has to be complemented by and connected to knowledge that has been developed in disciplinary sciences. There is a need of a Science of/for Adaptation (Sof. A). The level and method of participation in Sof. A should be determined on the basis of the specific project context and goals. More emphasis on the science of adaptation can lead to improved understanding of the conditions for successful science for adaptation”. Cli. VIA Network tomado de Harbottle 2013

The main objectives of Cli. VIA-Net are to: • Improve interdisciplinarity and Earth System Science graduate level education in order to address climate change and variability threats, environmental change, and disaster risk reduction (DRR), particularly in relation to ENSO events. • Influence decision-making on local and regional levels. • Integrate climatic, environmental and health sciences with socio-economic information. • Assess climate VIA focused on monitoring and evaluation systems. • Achieve dialogue between local and academic knowledge Cli. VIA Network

Y aquí estamos…… An international congress on “Global Change and Climate Risks in Paraguay and the Rio de la Plata Basin” will be held in mid-2017 at FPUNA, organised by the NGO “Guyra Paraguay” and the MCG Programme, with the participation of Cli. VIA-Net researchers. Harbottle Consulting

Conclusions The purpose of this article was to present the Cli. VIANetwork, a university-based collaborative education, research and practice effort on climate change and variability adaptation in Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Venezuela. The network builds on a framework of foundation concepts such as Earth System Science basic knowledge, crossdisciplinary language, practice-oriented research and problem-oriented practice approaches, e. g. Communitybased adaptation and Eco. Health. Harbottle Consulting

The main results……. The main results are expressed in terms of solutionbased approaches from the academy to a set of regional cases which have in common similar threats and challenges addressed to give common solutions. The foundation concepts and approaches were mobilised at each case study through: Harbottle Consulting

i) Connecting basic disciplinary knowledge and interdisciplinary education with practice research to solving climate-related societal challenges (e. g. Eco. Health); ii) focusing on Practice-oriented Research and Problem orientation CBA and Eco. Health approaches to face emergent climate-related socio-environmental problems, e. g. vector-borne diseases; coastal floodings and sealevel rise (e. g. CEVH-I; PSP); iii) co-producing knowledge and solutions with experts and stakeholders in Practice-oriented Research and problem orientation approaches, e. g. Eco. Health, which is already influencing decision-making (e. g. aggregated Chagas Vulnerability Index). Cli. VIA-Net

The main challenges faced to develop Cli. VIA-Net are to i) achieve interdisciplinarity, ii) integrate stakeholders, iii) co-produce knowledge and solutions, and iv) influence decision-making in adaptation. The first three have been successfully achieved by all groups, while the fourth has been yet achieved by Clim-Eco. Health, CEHV-I, and CLCC. The programmes SAVIA-Coast and “Thinking of Futures” are profiting from the experience of the network and have focused on research and education. Cli. VIA-Net

Despite the worldwide trend to develop adaptation programmes, it remains a challenge in the four countries involved in the network. Cli. VIA-Net intervenes as an alternative to this trend in the Higher Education systems. This experience suggests that Higher Education institutional learning is an important component of effective adaptation to climate change and variability. The value of Cli. VIA-Net is been successful in integrating "from knowledge into action" based on interdisciplinary graduate education, partnership, participatory research and problem-oriented action. Currently, the network is moving forward towards "reaching a science for/of adaptation" at research and practice, by developing scientific production, conferences, and a proven influence on decision-making. Cli. VIA-Net

The main challenges faced to develop Cli. VIA-Net are to i) achieve interdisciplinarity, ii) integrate stakeholders, iii) co-produce knowledge and solutions, and iv) influence decision-making in adaptation. The first three have been successfully achieved by all groups, while the fourth has been yet achieved by Clim-Eco. Health, CEHV-I, and CLCC. The programmes SAVIA-Coast and “Thinking of Futures” are profiting from the experience of the network and have focused on research and education. Cli. VIA-Net

Aggregated climate-health vulnerability index for the Chagas disease The Chagas disease health vulnerability index (CCHVI) aggregates climate and non-climate indicators. The former represents the nature and magnitude of change through relationships between Δ 1 and Δ 2. The latter are divided in: i) Direct Health Vulnerability Index (DHVI) which represents health sector performance (COI), e. g. health coverage and socio-economic indicators to assess the Adaptation Capacity Index (HCAI), and ii) Indirect Health Vulnerability Index (IHVI) which includes an epidemiological index (EI) of infestation extent and other sectors index (OSI) of disease from climate change (Smith et al. , 2014), e. g. socio-economic shortcomings of households (UBNI), Ecosystem Integrity (Herzog et al. , 2011) influence on diseases (IEI), estimated from climatic indicators for 2005 and 2015. Two exposure indexes are included: I) Percentage of households with UBN I and ii) Human vulnerability index (HVI) related to outbreaks of the disease. The CCHVI aggregates both direct and indirect indices and the climate index expressed as follows: CCHVI= CI ((COI + (EI + OSI)/ACI or CI (ΣHDV+ ΣHIVI) /ACI This climate health index is useful to implement adaptation actions and to identify the responsibility of policy-makers and stakeholders. To calculate the "Future Index for 2025” (CCHVI-2025), the same process is followed, including the outputs of the climate scenarios and Δ 2 instead of Δ 1. The CCHV indicators and aggregated index can be applied to any disease or disaster, just changing the indicators in order to formulate climate VIA policies. Cli. VIA-Net

Survey Monkey Dear Colleagues, " Facing climate change scepticism at universities" We are performing a "study about perceptions on whether and how universities should deal with issues related to climate change in operations and curriculum". We would be grateful if you could contribute to our online survey about this topic. Please respond to our survey based on your university experience. All data will be kept anonymous and we can send the paper to be produced, to anyone interested in getting a copy. Kindly copy and paste or click on this link (if supported) in your browser to fill in questionnaire. Facing climate change scepticism at universities: the contribution from education Walter Leal Filho, Jan Jasper, Mark Mifsud, Petra Moltan-Hill, Gustavo Nagy, Lucas Veigas, Nicholas Worsfold. The following is the link. htpps: //www. surveymonkey. com. r/CLIMATECHANGESCEPTICISMUNIVERSITIES It will be kept open till 7 th July and see the responses. . . than we can decide if we will leave open for longer or close. The paper will be presented at the Symposium on Universities and Climate Change, to be held in London in December Cli. VIA-Net