Macroeconomic and Industry Analysis CHAPTER 17 FRAMEWORK OF
- Slides: 104
Macroeconomic and Industry Analysis CHAPTER 17
FRAMEWORK OF ANALYSIS Fundamental Analysis Approach to Fundamental Analysis: Domestic and global economic analysis Industry analysis Company analysis Why use the top-down approach? BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 2
GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONSIDERATIONS Performance in countries and regions is highly variable Political risk Exchange rate risk Sales Profits Stock returns BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 3
TABLE 17. 1 ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN SELECTED EMERGING MARKETS BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 4
FIGURE 17. 1 CHANGE IN REAL EXCHANGE RATE: U. S. DOLLAR VERSUS MAJOR CURRENCIES, 1999– 2006 BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 5
KEY ECONOMIC VARIABLES Gross domestic product Unemployment rates Interest rates & inflation Budget deficit Consumer sentiment BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 6
FIGURE 17. 2 S&P 500 INDEX VERSUS EARNINGS PER SHARE BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 7
DEMAND SHOCKS Demand shock - an event that affects demand for goods and services in the economy BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 8
SUPPLY SHOCKS Supply shock - an event that influences production capacity or production costs BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 9
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT POLICY Fiscal Policy: Demand-side management Tax rate cut Increases in government spending BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 10
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT POLICY CONTINUED Monetary Policy - Demand-side management Manipulation of the money supply to influence economic activity Initial & feedback effects Tools of monetary policy Open market operations Discount rate Reserve requirements BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 11
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT POLICY CONTINUED Fiscal Policy: Supply-side management Incentive or marginal taxes National policies on education, infrastructure, and research are important elements BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 12
BUSINESS CYCLES The transition points across cycles are called peaks and troughs A peak is the transition from the end of an expansion to the start of a contraction A trough occurs at the bottom of a recession just as the economy enters a recovery BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 13
FIGURE 17. 3 CYCLICAL INDICATORS BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 14
LEADING INDICATORS Leading indicators tend to rise and fall in advance of the economy Examples: Avg. weekly hours of production workers Stock Prices BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 15
TABLE 17. 2 INDEXES OF ECONOMIC INDICATORS BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 16
COINCIDENT INDICATORS Coincident Indicators - indicators that tend to change directly with the economy Examples: Industrial production Manufacturing and trade sales BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 17
LAGGING INDICATORS Lagging Indicators - indicators that tend to follow the lag economic performance Examples: Ratio of trade inventories to sales Ratio of consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 18
FIGURE 17. 4 INDEXES OF LEADING, COINCIDENT, AND LAGGING INDICATORS BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 19
TABLE 17. 3 ECONOMIC CALENDAR BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 20
INDUSTRY ANALYSIS Sensitivity to business cycles Factors affecting sensitivity of earnings to business cycles: Sensitivity of sales of the firm’s product to the business cycles Operating leverage Financial leverage Industry life cycles BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 21
FIGURE 17. 5 ECONOMIC CALENDAR AT YAHOO! BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 22
TABLE 17. 4 USEFUL ECONOMIC INDICATORS BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 23
FIGURE 17. 6 RETURN ON EQUITY, 2007 BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 24
DEFINING AN INDUSTRY North American Industry Classification System, or NAICS codes Codes assigned to group firms for statistical analysis BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 25
FIGURE 17. 7 INDUSTRY STOCK PRICE PERFORMANCE AS MEASURED BY RATE OF RETURN ON DOW JONES SECTOR ISHARES, JANUARY-OCTOBER 2007 BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 26
FIGURE 17. 8 ROE OF MAJOR BANKS BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 27
TABLE 17. 5 EXAMPLES OF NAICS INDUSTRY CODES BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 28
FIGURE 17. 9 INDUSTRY CYCLICALITY BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 29
TABLE 17. 6 OPERATING LEVERAGE OF FIRMS A AND B THROUGHOUT THE BUSINESS CYCLE BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 30
FIGURE 17. 10 A STYLIZED DEPICTION OF THE BUSINESS CYCLE BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 31
SECTOR ROTATION Portfolio is adjusted by selecting companies that should perform well for the stage of the business cycle Peaks – natural resource extraction firms Contraction – defensive industries such as pharmaceuticals and food Trough – capital goods industries Expansion – cyclical industries such as consumer durables BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 32
FIGURE 17. 11 SECTOR ROTATION BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 33
INDUSTRY LIFE CYCLES Stage Sales Growth Start-up Consolidation Maturity Relative Decline BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT Rapid & Increasing Stable Slowing Minimal or Negative 34
FIGURE 17. 12 THE INDUSTRY LIFE CYCLE BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 35
INDUSTRY STRUCTURE AND PERFORMANCE Threat of entry Rivalry between existing competitors Pressure from substitute products Bargaining power of buyers Bargaining power of suppliers BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 36
Equity Valuation Models CHAPTER 18
MODELS OF EQUITY VALUATION Balance Sheet Models Book Value Dividend Discount Models Price/Earning Ratios BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 38
TABLE 18. 1 FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS FOR MICROSOFT CORPORATION, OCTOBER 25, 2007 BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 39
LIMITATIONS OF BOOK VALUE Book value is an application of arbitrary accounting rules Can book value represent a floor value? Better approaches Liquidation value Replacement cost BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 40
EXPECTED HOLDING PERIOD RETURN The return on a stock investment comprises cash dividends and capital gains or losses Assuming a one-year holding period BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 41
REQUIRED RETURN CAPM gave us required return: If the stock is priced correctly Required return should equal expected return BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 42
INTRINSIC VALUE AND MARKET PRICE Intrinsic Value Self assigned Value Variety of models are used for estimation Market Price Consensus value of all potential traders Trading Signal IV > MP Buy IV < MP Sell or Short Sell IV = MP Hold or Fairly Priced BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 43
SPECIFIED HOLDING PERIOD PH = the expected sales price for the stock at time H H = the specified number of years the stock is expected to be held BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 44
DIVIDEND DISCOUNT MODELS: GENERAL MODEL V 0 = Value of Stock Dt = Dividend k = required return BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 45
NO GROWTH MODEL Stocks that have earnings and dividends that are expected to remain constant Preferred Stock BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 46
NO GROWTH MODEL: EXAMPLE E 1 = D 1 = $5. 00 k =. 15 V 0 = $5. 00 /. 15 = $33. 33 BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 47
CONSTANT GROWTH MODEL g = constant perpetual growth rate BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 48
CONSTANT GROWTH MODEL: EXAMPLE E 1 = $5. 00 b = 40% k = 15% (1 -b) = 60% D 1 = $3. 00 g = 8% V 0 = 3. 00 / (. 15 -. 08) = $42. 86 BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 49
ESTIMATING DIVIDEND GROWTH RATES g = growth rate in dividends ROE = Return on Equity for the firm b = plowback or retention percentage rate (1 - dividend payout percentage rate) BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 50
FIGURE 18. 1 DIVIDEND GROWTH FOR TWO EARNINGS REINVESTMENT POLICIES BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 51
PRESENT VALUE OF GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES If the stock price equals its IV, growth rate is sustained, the stock should sell at: If all earnings paid out as dividends, price should be lower (assuming growth opportunities exist) BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 52
PRESENT VALUE OF GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES CONTINUED Price = No-growth value per share + PVGO (present value of growth opportunities) BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 53
PARTITIONING VALUE: EXAMPLE ROE = 20% d = 60% b = 40% E 1 = $5. 00 D 1 = $3. 00 k = 15% g =. 20 x. 40 =. 08 or 8% BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 54
Partitioning Value: Example Continued Vo = value with growth NGVo = no growth component value PVGO = Present Value of Growth Opportunities BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 55
LIFE CYCLES AND MULTISTAGE GROWTH MODELS g 1 = first growth rate g 2 = second growth rate T = number of periods of growth at g 1 BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 56
MULTISTAGE GROWTH RATE MODEL: EXAMPLE D 0 = $2. 00 g 1 = 20% g 2 = 5% k = 15% D 2 = 2. 88 T=3 D 1 = 2. 40 D 3 = 3. 46 D 4 = 3. 63 V 0 = D 1/(1. 15) + D 2/(1. 15)2 + D 3/(1. 15)3 + D 4 / (. 15 -. 05) ( (1. 15)3 V 0 = 2. 09 + 2. 18 + 2. 27 + 23. 86 = $30. 40 BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 57
TABLE 18. 2 FINANCIAL RATIOS IN TWO INDUSTRIES BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 58
FIGURE 18. 2 VALUE LINE INVESTMENT SURVEY REPORT ON HONDA MOTOR CO. BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 59
PRICE EARNINGS RATIOS P/E Ratios are a function of two factors Required Rates of Return (k) Expected growth in Dividends Uses Relative valuation Extensive Use in industry BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 60
P/E RATIO: NO EXPECTED GROWTH E 1 - expected earnings for next year E 1 is equal to D 1 under no growth k - required rate of return BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 61
P/E RATIO: CONSTANT GROWTH b = retention ratio ROE = Return on Equity BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 62
NUMERICAL EXAMPLE: NO GROWTH E 0 = $2. 50 g=0 k = 12. 5% P 0 = D/k = $2. 50/. 125 = $20. 00 PE = 1/k = 1/. 125 = 8 BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 63
NUMERICAL EXAMPLE: GROWTH b = 60% ROE = 15% (1 -b) = 40% E 1 = $2. 50 (1 + (. 6)(. 15)) = $2. 73 D 1 = $2. 73 (1 -. 6) = $1. 09 k = 12. 5% g = 9% P 0 = 1. 09/(. 125 -. 09) = $31. 14 PE = 31. 14/2. 73 = 11. 4 PE = (1 -. 60) / (. 125 -. 09) = 11. 4 BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 64
TABLE 18. 3 EFFECT OF ROE AND PLOWBACK ON GROWTH AND THE P/E RATIO BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 65
P/E RATIOS AND STOCK RISK Holding all else equal Riskier stocks will have lower P/E multiples Higher values of k; therefore, the P/E multiple will be lower BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 66
PITFALLS IN P/E ANALYSIS Use of accounting earnings Earnings Management Choices on GAAP Inflation Reported earnings fluctuate around the business cycle BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 67
FIGURE 18. 3 P/E RATIOS OF THE S&P 500 INDEX AND INFLATION BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 68
FIGURE 18. 4 EARNINGS GROWTH FOR TWO COMPANIES BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 69
FIGURE 18. 5 PRICE-EARNINGS RATIOS BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 70
FIGURE 18. 6 P/E RATIOS FOR DIFFERENT INDUSTRIES, 2007 BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 71
OTHER COMPARATIVE VALUE APPROACHES Price-to-book ratio Price-to-cash-flow ratio Price-to-sales ratio BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 72
FIGURE 18. 7 MARKET VALUATION STATISTICS BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 73
FREE CASH FLOW APPROACH Discount the free cash flow for the firm Discount rate is the firm’s cost of capital Components of free cash flow After tax EBIT Depreciation Capital expenditures Increase in net working capital BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 74
COMPARING THE VALUATION MODELS In practice Values from these models may differ Analysts are always forced to make simplifying assumptions BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 75
THE AGGREGATE STOCK MARKET Explaining Past Behavior Forecasting the Stock Market BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 76
FIGURE 18. 8 EARNINGS YIELD OF S&P 500 VERSUS 10 -YEAR TREASURY-BOND YIELD BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 77
TABLE 18. 4 S&P 500 PRICE FORECASTS UNDER VARIOUS SCENARIOS BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 78
Financial Statement Analysis CHAPTER 19
OVERVIEW Purpose Tools Used Statement analysis Ratio analysis Limitations BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 80
FINANCIAL STATEMENTS Balance Sheet Common Sized Trend or Indexed Income Statement Common Sized Trend or Indexed Statement of Cash Flows BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 81
TABLE 19. 1 CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF INCOME FOR HEWLETT-PACKARD, 2006 BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 82
TABLE 19. 2 CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET FOR HEWLETT-PACKARD, 2006 BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 83
TABLE 19. 3 STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS FOR HEWLETT-PACKARD, 2006 BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 84
ACCOUNTING VERSUS ECONOMIC EARNINGS Economic earnings Sustainable cash flow that can be paid to stockholders without impairing productive capacity of the firm Accounting earnings Affected by conventions regarding the valuation of assets BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 85
PROFITABILITY MEASURES ROE: measures the profitability for contributors of equity capital ROA: measures the profitability for all contributors of capital Leverage has a significant effect on profitability measures BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 86
TABLE 19. 4 NODETT’S PROFITABILITY OVER THE BUSINESS CYCLE BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 87
TABLE 19. 5 IMPACT OF FINANCIAL LEVERAGE ON ROE BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 88
ROE, ROA AND LEVERAGE BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 89
DECOMPOSITION OF ROE = Net Profit x Pretax Profit (1) Tax x x Burden BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT Pretax Profit EBIT (2) Interest Burden x x EBIT Sales (3) x x Sales Assets (4) x Assets Equity x (5) x Margin x Turnover x Leverage 90
TABLE 19. 6 RATIO DECOMPOSITION ANALYSIS FOR NODETT AND SOMDETT BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 91
TABLE 19. 7 DIFFERENCES BETWEEN PROFIT MARGIN AND ASSET TURNOVER ACROSS INDUSTRIES BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 92
TABLE 19. 8 GROWTH INDUSTRIES FINANCIAL STATEMENTS, 2004 – 2007 ($ THOUSANDS) BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 93
TABLE 19. 9 SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL RATIOS: LEVERAGE, ASSET UTILIZATION, LIQUIDITY, PROFITABILITY AND MARKET PRICE BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 94
FIGURE 19. 1 DUPONT DECOMPOSITION FOR HEWLETTPACKARD BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 95
TABLE 19. 10 FINANCIAL RATIOS FOR MAJOR INDUSTRY GROUPS BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 96
ECONOMIC VALUE ADDED Difference between return on assets (ROA) and the opportunity cost of capital (k) EVA is also called residual income EVA can be positive or negative for firms that have positive earnings BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 97
TABLE 19. 11 ECONOMIC VALUE ADDED, 2007 BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 98
TABLE 19. 12 KEY FINANCIAL RATIOS OF GROWTH INDUSTRIES, INC BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 99
TABLE 19. 13 GROWTH INDUSTRIES STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS ($ THOUSANDS) BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 100
COMPARABILITY PROBLEMS Accounting Differences Inventory Valuation Depreciation Inflation and Interest Expense Fair Value Accounting Quality of Earnings International Accounting Conventions BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 101
INTERNATIONAL ACCOUNTING DIFFERENCES Reserves – many other countries allow more flexibility in use of reserves Depreciation – US allows separate tax and reporting presentations Intangibles – treatment varies widely BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 102
FIGURE 19. 2 ADJUSTED VERSUS REPORTED PRICE-EARNINGS RATIOS BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 103
THE GRAHAM TECHNIQUE Careful analysis of a firm’s financial statements could turn up bargain stocks Purchase common stocks at less then their working-capital value Give no weight to plant or other fixed assets Deduct all liabilities in full from assets BAHATTIN BUYUKSAHIN, JHU INVESTMENT 104
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