Lower Susquehanna RIVERKEEPER and Lower Susquehanna Riverkeeper Association

Lower Susquehanna RIVERKEEPER® and Lower Susquehanna Riverkeeper Association Enforcement Advocacy Stewardship Education

Conowingo Dam

Flow. West – Review of LSRWA • Purpose of Expert – – Review modeling analyses performed for the LSWRA. – Ensure that the appropriate input data and assumptions were used – Offer professional opinions on additional or revised modeling analyses that should have been performed. • Conclusions – – LSRWA depended on a “daisy chain” of models that passed outputs successively from one model to another. – Predicted sediment quantities were lower than the best available estimates or actual measured data suggested – Underrepresentation of potential sediment impacts (and in turn likely nutrient impacts) on the Chesapeake Bay.

LSRWA Review Paul Frank – Flow. West FIGURE 1: COMPARISON OF CONOWINGO FLOW BASED ON INSTANTANEOUS RECORD, DAILY AVERAGE FLOW RECORD, A 24 -HOUR RUNNING AVERAGE, AND STORM AVERAGED FLOW

Large Storm Event Probability

Climate Change Facts • Average temperature in the Northeast are expected to rise between 2. 7 and 3 °F by 2035, between 3. 6 and 4. 8 °F by 2055, and between 4. 7 and 8 °F by 2085, compared with the average temperature in 1971 -1999. • Annual amount of precipitation in the NE is expected to increase between 2 -7% in 2041 -2070, compared with 19712000. • Finally, the frequency of extreme precipitation is expected to increase by about 10 -20% in the Chesapeake Bay watershed by 2041 -2070,

Wendy Mc. Pherson (USGS) - 9/20/04

Hurricane Ivan – September 2004 Susquehanna River Bay Bridge

Conowingo Clip

STANDING BETWEEN POLLUTERS AND OUR RIVER! www. Lower. Susquehanna. Riverkeeper. org Low. Sus. River@hotmail. com