Louisiana Longterm and Shortterm Employment Projections and Star

Louisiana Long-term and Short-term Employment Projections and Star Jobs Overview Ava Dejoie Louisiana Workforce Commission

Process Overview: Occupational Forecast & Star-Rating System • Occupational projections • Updated annually upon receipt of new employment data • Two-step process: q Projections by Industry q Projections by Occupation • Star-Rating system • Updated annually based on new demand projections, wage data, and openings data q Ratings by Occupation

Methodology: Industry Projections • 94 distinct industries in each RLMA (statewide + 8 regions 846 total) - 2 forecasts per industry-region: short-term (2017) & long-term (2024) • Produce baseline statistical model projections, using historical data and Projections Suite software • Review and refine baseline projections: - Analyze prevailing economic trends: develop & evaluate several alternative candidate models - Contact Louisiana driver firms and incorporate their comments (additional input from industry associations and regional economic development organizations) - Incorporate economic development initiatives and major announcements including expansions and layoffs

Example of Simple Statistical Modeling Post-Katrina

Example Where Statistical Models Struggle

Key Points ▫ Good statistical models should always be the starting point ▫ Forecasts are always a mix of science and judgment ▫ Louisiana has numerous exogenous shocks that are large relative to industry size, which make life harder ▫ In some sectors, local knowledge trumps statistical models

How Important are Driver Firms? ▫ 2% of LA businesses �have 100 or more employees �Employ over 44% of LA workers �Contribute $4. 67 billion in direct wages �Create total Louisiana Sales of $61. 89 billion ▫ Large firms are more likely to generate funds from outside LA that support the local economy ▫ Don’t ignore small firms!

Converting: Industry to Occupation • Staffing Patterns • Mix of occupations in each industry • Based on recent historical data specific to LA regions • Change Factors • How proportion of occupation relative to entire industry changes over time • Replacement Rates • Attrition rate, due to retirement or permanently leaving job for any reason

Augmenting Data Sources: Change Factors • Change Factors • HWC Reports • Increase for Primary Care and Mid-level providers • Increasing role of IT in healthcare • LA State Board of Nursing • Registered Nurse license and survey data • LED announcements and firm engagement • Planned expansions/ relocations that will impact staffing ratios of relevant industries in upcoming years • Continued theme of increasing importance of IT professionals • Driver Firm interviews

Augmenting Data Sources: Replacement Rates • WARN (Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification) and Pre-WARN Notices • Healthcare Occupations: • Health Works Survey, 2012 & 2013 • LA State Board of Nursing license data • Specialty Trade Contractors/ Heavy & Civil Engineering Construction: • Alliance Safety Council annual training data • SW LA Construction Users Council (SLCUC) data on age profile of existing craft workforce • Other Occupations • Driver firm interviews

Augmenting Data Sources: Regional Stakeholder Inputs The following organizations contributed by providing driver firm contacts, data, or reviewing forecasts and providing feedback ABC BRAC WDB 40 AFL-CIO CLEDA WDB 41 GBRIA GNO Inc WDB 61 LABI LEDA LABSWE LCA NELEA LSBN LED NLEP LSBME LHA One Acadiana LSBOE LMOGA SWLA EDA LSBPNE

Occupational Forecast Summary • Short-Term Occupation through 2017 ▫ Average Annual Job Growth 17, 686 ▫ Average Annual Replacement Demand: 51, 218 ▫ Total Annual Demand: 68, 904 • Long-Term Occupation through 2024 ▫ Average Annual Total Job Growth 15, 934 ▫ Average Annual Replacement Demand: 50, 836 ▫ Total Annual Demand: 66, 770

Rating Occupations: Stars • LWC website provides info on available jobs: • Wages • Educational requirements • Star Rating: decision aid for job-seekers, employers, and policy planners • Rates a job by “how well it pays, and the occupation’s outlook” • Intended to reflect opportunity offered by an occupation, rather than measure subjective job quality

Star Rating System: Structure • Star Rating components for each occupation: • • Short-term outlook Long-term outlook Current Openings Wages • Rank each component, based on decile • Convert the average of component rankings to Stars

Star Rating System: Vetting Process • Developed in partnership with LSU’s Economic Research Policy Group. • Reviewed by Occupational Forecasting Council • Approved by Workforce Investment Council

4 -5 Star Jobs Span Across Educational Spectrum • Associate’s Degree Star Rating Occupational Title Registered Nurses « « « Diagnostic Medical Sonographers « « « Electrical and Electronics « « Engineering Technicians « «Occupational Therapy Assistants Average Annual Wage $62, 455 $59, 479 $55, 985 $54, 050 Annual Total Demand 1, 910 40 50 20 • Bachelor’s Degree Star Rating Occupational Title « « «Mechanical Engineers « « «Computer Systems Analysts « « «Software Developers, Applications « « «Chemical Engineers Average Annual Wage Annual Total Demand $98, 308 $72, 539 $78, 102 $113, 844 120 90 90 90 • Postsecondary Non-degree Star Rating Occupational Title Electricians « « « Industrial Machinery Mechanics « « « « «Riggers Average Annual Wage Annual Total Demand $48, 709 $51, 962 $38, 276 530 420 200

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