Longitudinal Studies Past Present and Future n ESRC

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Longitudinal Studies Past, Present and Future n ESRC Commitment Long Term n Two strands

Longitudinal Studies Past, Present and Future n ESRC Commitment Long Term n Two strands = Select National Jewels = Ad hoc Studies

Select (ESRC) National Jewels = LS = Cohorts = BHPS = These are funded

Select (ESRC) National Jewels = LS = Cohorts = BHPS = These are funded for the data and given funds to promote analysis

Other Major Longitudinal Studies = There are many BUT = Access often difficult

Other Major Longitudinal Studies = There are many BUT = Access often difficult

Major Characteristics of all Longitudinal Studies = Expensive = Require Long Term Commitment =

Major Characteristics of all Longitudinal Studies = Expensive = Require Long Term Commitment = Payoff not immediate

Pay off not immediate BUT = There is much that can be done -

Pay off not immediate BUT = There is much that can be done - MILLENIUM COHORT = There needs to be work to ensure maximum value for investment

Do we need any more national jewels? = Institutions = 46, 58, 70, ?

Do we need any more national jewels? = Institutions = 46, 58, 70, ? , 01 = Regional Estimates = Specific Demographic Groups = Expense = Use = Decisions MUST be based on a clear assessment of the substantive questions which the data will, over time address.

National Data Strategy = Need long term commitment to a core set of data

National Data Strategy = Need long term commitment to a core set of data = Not all longitudinal = Paul Boyle’s review = National Datasets co-ordinator = Policy Launch June = Strategy Development over Autumn = Feed into new ESRC Strategic Framework

ESRC’s New Framework n n Capacity Delivery Engagement Performance

ESRC’s New Framework n n Capacity Delivery Engagement Performance

What we do The themes: w Economic Performance and development w Environment and Human

What we do The themes: w Economic Performance and development w Environment and Human Behaviour w Governance and Citizenship w Knowledge, Communication and Learning w Lifecourse, Lifestyles and Health w Social Stability and Exclusion w Work and Organisation w Research resources

Fit into RCUK Ten Year Vision - Some potential areas (NB EXTREMELY ILLUSTRATIVE) =

Fit into RCUK Ten Year Vision - Some potential areas (NB EXTREMELY ILLUSTRATIVE) = Economic Performance = Population = Individual Behaviour, Lifestyle and Health = Public Service Delivery = Education = Our Environment and Food

Lowest Common Denominator - All benefit from Longitudinal Data

Lowest Common Denominator - All benefit from Longitudinal Data

Infrastructure for Next Ten Years n Twenty first century Social Science requires twenty first

Infrastructure for Next Ten Years n Twenty first century Social Science requires twenty first century infrastructure n Major area will be modelling individual and institutional data over time and space and from different sources n Methodological Development l merging l disclosure control

Analysis - 1980 Logistical Regression - 1987 Current Status data - 1990 Discrete Time

Analysis - 1980 Logistical Regression - 1987 Current Status data - 1990 Discrete Time Hazards (DTH) - 1995 Multilevel DTM - 1997 Multilevel Multinomial DTH - 2001 Multiprocess Modelling - 2003 Onwards l e-social science l multiple types

Final Summary l LS Central to ESRC l LS Central to Social Science BUT

Final Summary l LS Central to ESRC l LS Central to Social Science BUT l We need to be clear about focus and need