Local action on climate change and peak oil

Local action on climate change and peak oil: overcoming personal and corporate barriers Hal Gillmore Transition Network Transition Town Totnes

Peak Oil n we’ll never “run out” of oil n we’re running out of cheap, plentiful oil n oil underpins – industrial development – agriculture – economics – population n about ½ way through it… n it’s going to decline

Peak Oil – a theory? n 98 oil producers

Peak Oil – a theory? n Not a theory for these 64 post peak producers

Peak Oil – discovery n US discovery peaked in 1930 s – production peaked in 1971 n UK discovery peaked in 1975 – production peaked in 1999 n world discovery peaked in 1960 s – production will peak in 20? ?

Climate Change – the end of the debate The 4 th IPCC report, 2007 states: n Warming of the climate system is unequivocal n Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20 th century is very likely (confidence level >90%) due to the observed increase in human greenhouse gas concentrations Upsala Glacier, Argentina

Climate Change – the start of the feedbacks…

Peak Oil & Climate Change PEAK OIL (a la Hirsch et al. ) n coal to liquids n gas to liquids n relaxed drilling regulations n massively scaled biofuels n tar sands and nonconventional oils n resource nationalism and stockpiling PLANNED RELOCALISATION n local resilience n carbon reduction n consume closer to home n produce closer to home n play closer to home n decentralised energy infrastructure n the Great Reskilling n localised food n energy descent plans n local medicinal capacity n local currencies CLIMATE CHANGE (a la Stern et al. ) n climate engineering n carbon capture and storage n tree-based carbon offsets n international emissions trading n climate adaptation n improved transportation logistics n nuclear power

What can we do? n Global – – – n Oil Depletion Protocol Contraction and Convergence Kyoto National – TEQs, Cap & Share (energy rationing) n Community – Transition Towns, cities, villages, rural n Personal – – – “The work that reconnects” self directed re-education getting Gaia’ed

How do we respond? n Going up the energy slope, we used – – n ingenuity creativity adaptability cooperation Going back down… – if we’re early enough – if we’re cooperative – the future could be a whole lot better…

The Petroleum Interval

Transition is based on Four key assumptions 1. 2. 3. 4. Life with dramatically lower energy consumption is inevitable an it is better to plan for it than to be taken by surprise. Our communities currently lack the resilience to enable them to withstand the severe energy shocks that will accompany peak oil. We have to act collectively and we have to act now. By unleashing the collective genius of those around us to proactively design our own energy descent, we can build ways of living that are more connected, more enriching, and that recognise the biological limits of our planet.

Our choice… n We’ll be transitioning to a lower energy future whether we want to or not. Far better to ride that wave rather than getting engulfed by it.

How do we get from where we are now to an abundant, pleasurable and resilient future?

Transition Initiatives Currently 134 ‘official’ worldwide, 1000 s mulling it over Near here … Caradon, Tavistock, Liskeard, Ivybridge, Launceston, South Brent, Newton Ferrers, Totnes …. . University of Plymouth? Plymouth City? www. transitiontowns. org/Transition. Network

Local action on climate change and peak oil: overcoming personal and corporate barriers www. transitiontowns. org/Transition. Network www. totnes. transitionnetwork. org Hal Gillmore www. transitionculture. org www. greensplog. org