Livestock feed markets Trends opportunities in feed markets

Livestock feed markets Trends & opportunities in feed markets Ryan Koory, Sr. Economist

Today’s Presentation 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Introduction-- Who/What is Mercaris? Big Picture: Canada & the Prairies Canada & US Organic Acreage Outlook Growth Prospects in Feed Demand Trends and Opportunities in Trade Organic Prices & Premiums

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Canada & US Big picture 1. Feed leads (it’s a big category and growing) 2. Its an international market—your neighbor to the South loves eggs, dairy and meat. 3. Given this, Canada has both Strengths & Challenges Small grains! Plant-based proteins (not feed)

Acreage Outlook

Organic Farm Land (Acres) How did 2015/16 look? On par for field crops CA: 830, 263 acres US: 807, 490 acres US sticks to Corn/Soy US: 38% of acres CA: Less than 15% Likely near-even for wheat CA: > 229, 374 acres US: 301, 950 acres

Organic Oilseed Acres Canadian flax acres play a major role in organic production

Organic Farm Land (Acres) Since 2015/16? US field crop acres up MORE THAN DOUBLED! Major feed crops (corn, soy) were 31% of growth But. . . CA data ends in 2015/16 What about Canada? Corn/soy, likely still small Probably a lot of wheat growth ?

Livestock Market Growth & Feed Demand

Meat Production Growth Remains Robust 2015 data shows 618 certified organic CA livestock producers About 1/5 the size of the US About 1/5 were located in the prairie region (mostly cattle producers) Like US, CA broilers and egg production leads feed demand We don’t have data to see CA growth But, if it’s anything like the US, then CA poultry production

Feed demand follows Broiler meat is the BIGGEST driver of US feed demand growth Higher protein feed needs pushes feed meal growth faster that grain Though we don’t have exact CA livestock numbers, we can guess it’s under the same pressure Growing poultry production escalates meal demand FASTER than grain Upside for feed producers, trade opportunities can come be found in the US due to this growth

Organic Exports Opportunities for Canada A lot of those opportunities are with the US Canada viewed as more trustworthy than other countries of origin Currency strength matters’ A lot US Imports are corn/soybeans, not huge crops in the prairies, so develop focus on small grains for rations --Alternatives to meat—means demand for yellow peas, lentil oats.

US Corn Supply Outlook ? What role will imports play over 17/18? 16/17 ended down 6% y/y at 19 million bu, but production up 38% y/y So far, 17/18 imports are down 64% y/y Sep-Nov 2017 at 2 million bu Imports from Turkey down a massive 3. 3 million bu Sep-Nov 2017 Mercaris estimates 2017/18 production at 43 million bu, up 35% y/y But, GCAU grew 39% from 2015 -2016, and 2017 2018 wont likely see a slowdown *Trade statistics sourced from USDA GATS

US Soybean Supply Outlook ? Production posts large gains, but import still dominate supplies 2017/18 US production estimated at 7. 1 million bu, up an impressive 38% y/y Imports likely to dominate supplies again in 2017/18 though Imports accounted for 74% of US supplies in 2016/17 So far, 2017/18 imports are up 15% y/y Sep-Nov 2017/18 may see imports fall as a share of domestic supplies, but are likely to remain dominant *Trade statistics sourced from USDA GATS

Vegetable protein markets abound *Trade statistics sourced from USDA GATS

Opportunities in Trade *Trade statistics sourced from Stats Canada & USDA GATS

Prices

Organic Feed Corn Prices Positive start to 17/18 Corn lost $2 per bu. over 15/16 2016/17 price remain near $8. 70/bu, and trading in a tighter range Since the close of 16/17, corn prices have steadily gained $1. 00, with Dec 2017 averaging $9. 63/bu

Organic Feed Corn Prices Corn maintains a strong price premium $4 -6/bu premium over conventional Down from $6 -9/bu seen in 2016 *Prices received for conventionally produced commodities

Organic Feed Wheat Prices Feed grade wheat is a tale of two prices Wester wheat caries a $2 -3/bu premium over conventional Easter CA wheat caries $5 -7/bu premium Wester CA discount due to transportation CA poultry markets located in ON & BC US import demand pulls from Vancouver and across the Great *Prices received for conventionally produced commodities

Organic Feed Oats & Barley Prices Organic Feed Oats Organic Feed Barley *Prices received for conventionally produced commodities Oats carry smaller Western discount, and a smaller premium overall, $1 -2/bu Barley looks like wheat/corn Western premium $3/bu Eastern $6/bu

Organic Feed Soybean Prices Price holds trend, but volatility picks up Beans lost $2. 50 per bu over 15/16 2016/17 price dipped over Q 2 – Q 3 but recovered to $20. 20/bu by September Since the close of 16/17, bean prices have remained near $19. 25/bu, but trading on a wider range So far, 2017/18 price range is running near $4. 70/bu, up from $3. 40/bu in 2016/17

Organic Feed Soybeans Prices Soybean prices hold $6 -12 over conventional FOB holds bigger premium ($15/bu+) Likely reflects more food grade exports US also holds a robust and growing market for plant based proteins *Prices received for conventionally produced commodities

At the end of the day. . . Canada likely has equal potential to the US for organic row crops, but…. The composition of what Canada grows (particularly the Prairies) is very different For feed markets, invest in research and marketing activities that promote small grains & legumes Consider that food markets for alternative animal proteins are growing now: yellow peas, lentils, oats

Further Resources Mercaris: Join our free market information service for growers! www. mercaris. com/farmers Farmer’s Guide to Organic Contracts http: //www. flaginc. org/publication/farmers-guide-toorganic-contracts/fgoc 2012/ National Center for Appropriate Technology-Marketing Organic Grains https: //attra. ncat. org/attrapub/summaries/summary. php? pub=101

Contact: Alex Heilman Alex. Heilman@Mercaris. com mercaris@mercaris. com (347) 522 -0631 www. mercaris. com

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