Livelihood Systems their Vulnerability to high food prices
Livelihood Systems & their Vulnerability to high food prices WHERE? WHO? WHEN? WHAT?
Livelihood Systems & Seasonal Calendars – (approximates)
Pastoralists • Continued dependence on food aid in some areas • Deteriorating terms of trade • Livestock disease affecting Uganda & Kenya • Reduced mobilisation due to conflict & trade bans • Asset bases depleted from past droughts To cope • reduce expenditure - # of meals, diet diversity, non-food items, social services • Rely more on credit, gifts & remittance • Move to urban/peri-urban
Impact in pastoral livelihood zone Scenario - 50% price increase & reduced food aid Impact on food sources Impact on expenditure Gap = 4 shoats The impact of the shock will cause households to have a 44% food deficit before coping
Urban & peri-urban • Cost of living increased by up to 50% • Asset bases (savings) depleting To cope • Buy cheaper food direct from nearby rural farmers • Reduce expenditure - # of meals, non-staple foods • Reduce expenditure on water, soap, latrine etc (sanitation & hygiene) • Limit expenditure on social services & move to cheaper rent • Send (wife &) children to relatives or rural home • Limit use of cooking fuel & transportation • Rely more on credit, gifts & remit • Seek employment opportunities or negative IGAs
Impact on urban poor – Mukuru Kwa Ruben Scenario - 50% price increase Impact on food sources Impact on expenditure Gap = 6, 0007000/- The impact of the shock will cause households to have a 40% food deficit before coping
Agro-pastoral/Farmers Examples from SNNPR, Ethiopia Food Sources - poor Income sources - poor
Agro-pastoral/Farmers Poor Income = Ksh 20, 000 -60, 000 Sale of own produce, unskilled income-generating activities (e. g. agricultural, fishing); collection & sale of firewood & sale of charcoal • Drought, conflict & displacement have affected production in the region • Currently food secure but deteriorating rapidly – dependent on next harvest • 25% increase in input costs & transportation • Deteriorating terms of trade • Asset bases depleted from past droughts – consume seeds To cope • Seek alternative income – agricultural or off-farm • Reduce expenditure - # of meals, diet diversity, non-food items, social services • Rely more on credit, gifts & remit • Move to urban/peri-urban
Proportion of food from various sources by livelihood Livelihood Own production Market Purchase Wild foods Gifts and Food Aid Pastoral 10 -30% 30 -50% 5 -15% 10 -50% Agro-pastoral 40 -60% 40 -50% 0 -5% Marginal Agricultural 30 -40% 55 -65% 0 -5% High potential (mixed farming) 40 -50% 50 -60% 0 -5% High Potential (Cereal and diary) 40 -50% 50 -60% 0% 0 -5% 0 -10% 80 -100% 0% 0 -10% Urban (casual wages labour/trading)
What to keep in mind…. . • Response needs to be designed appropriately for different livelihoods • Therefore, we need to know how people are living in different livelihood zones: » » » Context esp. access to markets/trade flows/volumes How much they rely on the market to purchase food …. . . to sell produce & labour (income) How much they spend on non-food items & fuel And quantify their coping strategies (expandability) • To understand how they will be affected by the “shock/s”, who will affected & when
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