LITPOLUKRBRIG COMMAND PMESII 18 25 December 2021 UNCLASSIFIED

LITPOLUKRBRIG COMMAND PMESII 1/8 25 December 2021 UNCLASSIFIED releasable to LTU, POL, UKR

PMESII LITPOLUKRBRIG COMMAND Impact Population 1. Galilabad region governor Farid Senceri (Republican Party of Democracy RPD). 2. Goytapa city leader - Yusif Okanev (South Atropian People’s Party - SAPP). 3. High level of official corruption. 4. 5 NGO’s. 2/8 POLITICAL • Galilabad region governor: Farid Senceri (RPD) – strong supported of Atropia’s President Salam Ismailov; favorable our activity; • Goytapa city leader: Yusif Okanev (SAPP); • Key political actor: Kanan Ilkinov (SAPP) – increase of popularity, because of fight against corruption; probably next city leader; • NGO’s: the Peace Corps, Doctors Without Borders, the Red Crescent, Eagle Guard, Polish Humanitarian Action; • SAPP – nationalists, separatists, opposite to GOV, treat ENY Impact FF like obstacle to achieve independent country. 25 December 2021 UNCLASSIFIED releasable to LTU, POL, UKR

PMESII LITPOLUKRBRIG COMMAND Political Military Impact Population 1. Small enemy units– 40 -50 PAX. 2. Cooperate with groups of insurgents. 3. ENY units could provide social unrest and decrease support for government or MNB forces. 4. Lack of military forces. 3/8 Economy Social Infrastructure Information MILITARY • • • Scattered small elements from of enemy units (teams and/or single soldiers) – max 40 -50 pax. High probability of cooperation with local groups of insurgents (South Atropian People's Army (SAPA)). Police Chief in region – Zeheb Tamerlane. No Atropians conventional military forces are located in the region. ENY units blended in the local population could lead action IOT provide social unrest and decrease support for government. Impact FF 25 December 2021 UNCLASSIFIED releasable to LTU, POL, UKR

PMESII LITPOLUKRBRIG COMMAND Political Military Economy Social Infrastructure Information ECONOMY 1. Poor rural region. 2. Agriculture. 3. Black market. • Branches of agriculture: cotton farming, grains (wheat and barley), tea, potatoes, animal husbandry – partly destroyed; • 3 factories (route repair, vineyard, winery) – partly destroyed; • Level of unemployment – 7%; • Bocyowicz Crime Family has influence for black market, Impact Population which concerns basic consumer goods (Western-styled clothing, cell phones, and computers); • As a result of military activity: expected rapid rise of Impact FF civilian mass movement and level of unemployment cause risk of humanitarian crisis. 4/8 25 December 2021 UNCLASSIFIED releasable to LTU, POL, UKR

PMESII LITPOLUKRBRIG COMMAND Military Economy SOCIAL • Most of region population are Atropian, so there is very weak possibility to rivalries between different ethnic groups existing. • The percent of Atropians in the region who consider themselves Muslim is 93. 4, but polls suggest that only about 21% of Atropians believe religion plays an important factor in their daily life. Religion conflict should not occur in the region. • By law, Atropian is the official language of Atropia, but the Atropian government protects the rights of “native” language speakers too. • Goytapa is the regional center of cocaine production, that’s why exist the high level of smuggling and other crimes. • We expect the movement of IDP’s in direction from the south to the north. • There is very small risk to collide with social internal conflicts that will have an impact on operation. But there can appeared Social Infrastructure Population: 11, 100 in Goytapa about 20, 000 in AOO 155. 300 in region Ethnics: 94% Atropian, 5% Arianian, 1% other. Expecting number of IDPs movement outside AOO in MDCOA is 27 000 Religion: 93. 4% -Muslims, 89% -Shia denomin. 2. 5%- Donovian Orth. , 2. 3%-Minarian Orth. The official language. Atropian. High level of criminal activity. Impact Population Political Impact FF IDP’s movement, that can cause an obstacle for operation. 5/8 25 December 2021 UNCLASSIFIED releasable to LTU, POL, UKR Information

PMESII LITPOLUKRBRIG COMMAND Political Military Economy Social Infrastructure INFRASTRUCTURE 1. The regional hospital Ghalilabad with 2 two health clinics. 2. Goytapa city mayor office. 3. Roads are well maintained. Dirt roads impassable during heavy rain. 4. Old Orthodox Church in Goytapa. 5. 2 water processing station are located in Goytapa. 6. Environment is polluted. • Health clinic in Goytapa is in bad condition and doesn’t functioned. Regional hospital located in Gallilabad and there are two health clinics that are open during regular business hours. The capacity of civilian hospital is 200 persons and it can caused problems with providing medical care. • In AOO there is only one historic building which is protected by law, so it lets operation to provide the defense operation without major obstacles. • Industrial and chemical pollution is widespread across the country’s and in also in the Ghalilabad region environment. • Water must be tested before using, there is refrain to damage water processing station. 6/8 Impact Population • Due to the lack of potable water in much of the region, military forces will need to test local water sources before use and likely treat local water to avoid medical problems. Military should refrain from unnecessary damaging of water processing stations. 25 December 2021 UNCLASSIFIED releasable to LTU, POL, UKR Impact FF Information

PMESII Political Military INFORMATION • • 7/8 Economy Social Infrastructure Television is the major source of information. Citizens receive television programs from Arianian stations. Significant numbers of magazines, newspapers, and news bureaus exist, but must operate within the limits of politically permissible speech. Most of citizens communicate by cell phone network. Less then 10% of habitants have access to Internet. Radio stations controlled by government. Government banned rebroadcasts of foreign-produced English language programs. Ariana possesses sufficient television and radio capacity to influence international and national opinion. In case of collateral damage incidents to publicly accuse MNB forces of inflicting pain and suffering upon the civilian population 25 December 2021 UNCLASSIFIED releasable to LTU, POL, UKR Information 1. Tv is a main source of information. 2. Receiving Arianian stations. 3. English broadcast banned. 4. Well developed mobile network. 5. Poor access to Internet. Impact Population LITPOLUKRBRIG COMMAND Impact FF

PMESII LITPOLUKRBRIG COMMAND FRANCISZKOW MINKOWICE PODZAMCZE EMILIANOW CIMIC Center 34 UFB 31906695 - IDP camp 34 UFB 28506740 - DCCP MASALY - Water processing station - Road of evacuation 8/8 25 December 2021 UNCLASSIFIED releasable to LTU, POL, UKR 34 UFB 29806690