LIQUIDITY RISK LIQUIDITY MANAGEMENT in Islamic Banks Salman

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LIQUIDITY RISK & LIQUIDITY MANAGEMENT in Islamic Banks Salman Syed Ali Current Issues in

LIQUIDITY RISK & LIQUIDITY MANAGEMENT in Islamic Banks Salman Syed Ali Current Issues in Islamic Finance Lecture 6 1

Lecture Plan n n n Part-I LIQUIDITY SHORTAGE (Risk) Sources of risk Implications for

Lecture Plan n n n Part-I LIQUIDITY SHORTAGE (Risk) Sources of risk Implications for Bank and the System Current practices of mitigation Recommendations and the Future n n n Part-II EXCESS LIQUIDITY (Low ret. ) Causes Implications for Bank and the System Current practices of its management Recommendations and Future 2

Key References n n n Abdul Majid, Abdul Rais. 2003. “Development Of Liquidity Management

Key References n n n Abdul Majid, Abdul Rais. 2003. “Development Of Liquidity Management Instruments: Challenges And Opportunities”, paper presented in International Conference on Islamic Banking: Risk Management, Regulation and Supervision, Jakarta –Indonesia, Sept 30 - to October 3, 2003. Ali, Salman Syed. 2004. “Islamic Modes of Finance and Associated Liquidity Risks” presented in Conference on Monetary Sector in Iran: Structure, Performance and Challenging Issues”, Tehran, February 2004. Shihadeh, Musa A. 2003. “Loss Provisioning in Islamic Banks: Jordan Islamic Bank Case Study”, paper presented in International Conference on Islamic Banking: Risk Management, Regulation and Supervision held in Jakarta. Indonesia. Jointly organized by Bank Indonesia and IRTI, October 2003. 3

Dry Climate Liquidity Shortage Assassin of banks 4

Dry Climate Liquidity Shortage Assassin of banks 4

Flood n Excess Liquidity: A drag on competition 5

Flood n Excess Liquidity: A drag on competition 5

Stability and Solvency of IBs n n In theory, Islamic banks are likely to

Stability and Solvency of IBs n n In theory, Islamic banks are likely to be more stable They have profit sharing on both the liability side and asset side 6

n n In practice, Islamic Banks have fixed income assets but have profit sharing

n n In practice, Islamic Banks have fixed income assets but have profit sharing on liability side. The IBs therefore, are still more stable than conventional banks. ¡ ¡ Solvent Asset tied finance 7

n n n While a majority of Islamic banks have excess liquidity Some Islamic

n n n While a majority of Islamic banks have excess liquidity Some Islamic banks have faced liquidity crisis Many different risks culminate in liquidity risk 8

Liquidity crunch can be a real problem n n n Example of Financial Crisis

Liquidity crunch can be a real problem n n n Example of Financial Crisis in Turkey 2000 -2001 Islamic financial institutions there faced sever liquidity problems One Islamic institution Ihlas Finans was closed during the crisis 9

LIQUIDITY RISK: Definition n Risk of Funding [at appropriate maturities and rates] n Risk

LIQUIDITY RISK: Definition n Risk of Funding [at appropriate maturities and rates] n Risk of Liquidating Assets [in time at reasonable prices] 10

Investment Firm’s Definition n “liquidity risk includes both the risk of being unable to

Investment Firm’s Definition n “liquidity risk includes both the risk of being unable to fund [its] portfolio of assets at appropriate maturities and rates and the risk of being unable to liquidate a position in a timely manner at reasonable prices. ” * * J. P. Morgan Chase (2000). 11

Regulators Definition n “risk to a bank’s earnings and capital arising from its inability

Regulators Definition n “risk to a bank’s earnings and capital arising from its inability to timely meet obligations when they come due without incurring unacceptable losses. ”* * Office of the Comptroller (2000) 12

Analysis and Diagnosis of Causes 13

Analysis and Diagnosis of Causes 13

LIQUIDITY RISK: Sources n n n n n 1. Incorrect judgment and complacency 2.

LIQUIDITY RISK: Sources n n n n n 1. Incorrect judgment and complacency 2. Unanticipated change in cost of capital 3. Abnormal behavior of financial markets 4. Range of assumptions used 5. Risk activation by secondary sources 6. Break down of payments system 7. Macroeconomic imbalances 8. Contractual forms 9. Financial Infrastructure deficiency 14

Liquidity Risk & Contractual Forms n n n Profit Sharing Contracts Murabaha Salam Istisna

Liquidity Risk & Contractual Forms n n n Profit Sharing Contracts Murabaha Salam Istisna Ijarah 15

n n n Resale not permitted Resale permitted but non-existent market Market exists but

n n n Resale not permitted Resale permitted but non-existent market Market exists but not active 16

Example of LR in Murabaha Primary LR Secondary LR Receivables are debt cannot be

Example of LR in Murabaha Primary LR Secondary LR Receivables are debt cannot be sold Involves buying of commodity then selling on deferred payment This brings in many operational, credit, dispute, and legal risks that can affect realization of receivables 17

LR: Current Practices of control n n n n Deposit Management Choice of Mode

LR: Current Practices of control n n n n Deposit Management Choice of Mode of Finance Maturity Matching and Gap Analysis Mixing of Deposits Reserves and Provisions Deposit Insurance Interbank Dealings Ijarah and Salam Sukuks 18

(a) Reserves and Provisions: n Provisions ¡ ¡ n Specific General Reserves ¡ ¡

(a) Reserves and Provisions: n Provisions ¡ ¡ n Specific General Reserves ¡ ¡ Profit Equalization Reserve Investment Risk Reserve 19

(b) Problems: n n n Fiqh issue of justice: inter-temporal /interpersonal transfers Breaks the

(b) Problems: n n n Fiqh issue of justice: inter-temporal /interpersonal transfers Breaks the link between bank performance and its reflection in profits Possibility of manipulation to hide losses Transfer of resources from shareholders to investment account holders (displaced commercial risk) Loosen the asset and liability tie in IBs. 20

(c) Remedies for Transparency: n n Well defined, consistent and transparent method of provision

(c) Remedies for Transparency: n n Well defined, consistent and transparent method of provision and reserve calculation Improved corporate governance Reveal ex-ante estimates and ex-post actual losses Reveal the position and changes in the PE Reserve and IR Reserve 21

Conclusions What is needed What can be done 22

Conclusions What is needed What can be done 22

Conclusions (contd. ) n n n Development of liquidity management instruments Development of Infrastructure

Conclusions (contd. ) n n n Development of liquidity management instruments Development of Infrastructure institutions (LMC, IIFM) Rethinking and development of new structure of Islamic banks (Separate treatment of Cur. and Inv. accounts) 23

Smooth Sailing 24

Smooth Sailing 24

Excess Liquidity State, Causes and Management 25

Excess Liquidity State, Causes and Management 25

Current state of liquidity in Islamic Banks n Excess Liquidity in the Market, resulting

Current state of liquidity in Islamic Banks n Excess Liquidity in the Market, resulting in serious business risk and affects the competitiveness of IFIs due to no return or a very low returns. n In a recent study it was discovered that Islamic financial institutions are almost 50% more liquid as compared to conventional financial institutions. n Out of US$ 13. 6 billion total assets of Islamic banks in the study US$ 6. 3 billion were found to be in liquid assets. 26

Causes of Excess Liquidity n n Factors internal to the bank Factors external to

Causes of Excess Liquidity n n Factors internal to the bank Factors external to the bank 27

Islamic Banks’ Asset Portfolio 5% 67% Mudharba Murabaha Shirakah IB Portfolio Istisna’ Ijarah Salam

Islamic Banks’ Asset Portfolio 5% 67% Mudharba Murabaha Shirakah IB Portfolio Istisna’ Ijarah Salam 28

Islamic Banks’ Assets Portfolio Source: Iqbal Munawar, Ausaf Ahmad and Tariqullah Khan (1998), Challenges

Islamic Banks’ Assets Portfolio Source: Iqbal Munawar, Ausaf Ahmad and Tariqullah Khan (1998), Challenges Facing Islamic Banking, Jeddah: IRTI 29

Key Issues in Liquidity Management Small No. of participants No Lender of Last Resort

Key Issues in Liquidity Management Small No. of participants No Lender of Last Resort Different Shari’a interpretation Key Issues in Liquidity Management No Islamic Interbank Market Credit for this diagram: IIFM Slow Development In Islamic financial Instruments Absence of Islamic Secondary market 30

Implications for Islamic Banks n n n Underutilization of financial resources Lower income and

Implications for Islamic Banks n n n Underutilization of financial resources Lower income and higher cost Loss of competitiveness 31

Current Practices in Managing Excess Liquidity n n n n Deposit Management Secured Commodity

Current Practices in Managing Excess Liquidity n n n n Deposit Management Secured Commodity Murabaha Mudaraba Sukuk Salam Sukuk Leasing Sukuk Musharakah Sukuk Infrastructure Institutions ¡ ¡ Liquidity Management Center IIFM 32

How a Secured Commodity Murabaha Works: Sell (at a profit & deferred payment) Conventional

How a Secured Commodity Murabaha Works: Sell (at a profit & deferred payment) Conventional Bank (Agent) Broker ‘B’ Receive Buy Pay (Spot) Broker ‘A’ (Sales proceeds at maturity) Receive funds from Investor (to pay Broker ‘A’) Settle Investor (Sales proceeds less Agents fees) Funds Flow Islamic Bank / Investor (Principal) Commodity Flow Credit for the diagram: IIFM 33

Advantage of SCM n n Short-term therefore liquid Buying and selling in same currency

Advantage of SCM n n Short-term therefore liquid Buying and selling in same currency (usually US$) therefore no FX risk 34

Problems with SCM n n Flow of funds away from Muslim economies Not contributing

Problems with SCM n n Flow of funds away from Muslim economies Not contributing in any growth or development oriented economic activity Limited scope for liquidity management: since transactions are mostly bilateral therefore counterparty limits apply Always back to back murabaha is needed for maintaining liquidity 35

Salam Sukuk (Ex. of Bahrain) n n Gov of Bahrain (Go. B) undertakes to

Salam Sukuk (Ex. of Bahrain) n n Gov of Bahrain (Go. B) undertakes to sell Aluminum (deferred) for advance payment BMA securitizes it by issuing salam sukuk Individual IBs buy these to park their excess liquidity IBs appoint Go. B as their agent to receive delivery of commodity and sell it through its distribution channels 36

Salam Sukuk (contd. ) n n Similar to SCM but securitized Advantages: ¡ ¡

Salam Sukuk (contd. ) n n Similar to SCM but securitized Advantages: ¡ ¡ n Cost price need not be declared Lower credit risk to bank due to sovereign counter-party Lower cost (or higher return) to bank than in SCM due to securitization Funds utilized in the local economy until very near to delivery date Disadvantage: ¡ Not trade-able therefore high liquidity risk 37

Bahrain Salam Sukuk (contd. ) Countr y Issuer Type Bahrain Sukuk Monetary Al Salam

Bahrain Salam Sukuk (contd. ) Countr y Issuer Type Bahrain Sukuk Monetary Al Salam Agency (23 issues up to April 2003) Value Maturity US$ 625 91 days Million for each (cumulat issue ive)* 38

Structure of Malaysian Sukuk Credit for this slide: BMA presentation, Feb. , 2004. 39

Structure of Malaysian Sukuk Credit for this slide: BMA presentation, Feb. , 2004. 39

Other sukuk and trade-able securities useful for liquidity management n n n n Gov.

Other sukuk and trade-able securities useful for liquidity management n n n n Gov. Participation Certificates (Sudan) Central Bank Participation Certificates (Sudan) Malaysian Global Ijarah Sukuk [US$500 M] First Global Sukuk Malaysia [US$150 M] Qatar Global Ijarah Sukuk [US$700 M] IDB Sukuk [US$400 M] Tabreed Global Ijarah Sukuk (Corporate) [US$150 M] 40

LM Infrastructure Institutions Output Facilitation IIFM in issuance of sukuk of Bahrain and Malaysia

LM Infrastructure Institutions Output Facilitation IIFM in issuance of sukuk of Bahrain and Malaysia LMC Part Is. DB Mother/Umbrella of IIFM efforts. Facilitated cross listing of Bahrain and Malaysian sukuk organization Development finance Research Country Membership 6 founding members 6 members 54 countries 41

New Ideas: Good & Bad 42

New Ideas: Good & Bad 42

Thank you 43

Thank you 43