Lincolnshire Research Observatory www researchlincs org uk Projecting

Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Projecting not Predicting Projecting Not Predicting – How external influences can impact Adam Peacock Principal Development Officer - Research

Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Projecting not Predicting This presentation will cover: • What do population projections tell us? • Population projections over time • Examples of how external influences can impact on population projections • Using local intelligence to inform existing projections

Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Projecting not Predicting Population Projections • A projection is a view of something in the future, based on present data or trends. • Provide us with a view of our population if current trends were set to continue

Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Projecting not Predicting What are projections used for? • Key input to long-term fiscal projections • Future expenditure on benefits and pensions • Key input for analysis on policy areas such as extending working lives • Future school pupil numbers • Resource planning and healthcare provision • Key input to official household projections • Grant formulation to local authorities • Academic researchers, private companies for market research

Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Projecting not Predicting How are the projections produced? • Latest mid-year population estimates as a starting point • The population is aged on (apart from the armed forces population) • A projected number of births is added on • A projected number of deaths are subtracted • Adjustment made for projected net migration

Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Projecting not Predicting Projection Assumptions • Recent trends in fertility, mortality and migration will continue • Built on an average of five years of historic local level data

Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Assumption Sources Projecting not Predicting Assumption Source Birth and death rates Civil Registration System Internal migration Patient Data Register System Student moves Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) International migration - International passenger Survey - Labour Force Survey - Home Office - National Asylum Support Services

Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Projecting not Predicting Latest Population Projection Lincolnshire Projection Population 2008 - 2033 838, 200 (21%) 411, 100 (3%) 256, 500 (84%) 170, 700 (8%)

Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Projecting not Predicting Local Population Projections Over Time Projected Lincolnshire Population, 2003 - 2033

Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Projecting not Predicting National Population Projections Over Time Projected Population, 2003 - 2035

Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Projecting not Predicting National Population Projections Over Time Difference in Projected UK Population at 2005 by component, selected projections

Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Projecting not Predicting Projections are not forecasts They do not attempt to predict the impact of: - Changing economic circumstances - Future government policies (whether in the UK or overseas) They also take no account of the capacity of areas to accommodate population

Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Projecting not Predicting Changing Economic Circumstances Over 70, 000 people

Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Projecting not Predicting Projected and Estimated Population for Lincoln City 3, 000 people

Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Projecting not Predicting Lincoln City 16 – 24 Population 10, 600 16 24 year olds

Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Projecting not Predicting Putting this into Practice • Growth points • Current economic conditions • Lincoln Eastern Bypass

Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Projecting not Predicting What does this tell us and what can we do? • Demographic behaviour is inherently uncertain • Act with a knowledge of the likely limitations of population projections • Use local intelligence and knowledge

Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Projecting not Predicting Estimated and Projected Population of the UK 2000 - 2035

Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Projecting not Predicting What does this tell us and what can we do? • Demographic behaviour is inherently uncertain • Act with a knowledge of the likely limitations of population projections • Use local intelligence and knowledge and apply it to nationally produced local level population projections • Consider alternative future views of Lincolnshire’s population

Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Projecting not Predicting Housing Scenarios

Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Projecting not Predicting Migration Scenarios

Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Projecting not Predicting Jobs Scenario

Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Projecting not Predicting Ageing Population

Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Projecting not Predicting So what have we covered? • What projections tell us about the future population • How these projections are produced and the assumptions used • Populations projections are just that – a projection • Some alternative scenarios of population growth in Lincolnshire

Lincolnshire Research Observatory www. research-lincs. org. uk Projecting not Predicting Any Questions?