Lignite Project By Ramic Haris GLOBAL OUTLOOK FOR

Lignite Project By Ramic, Haris

GLOBAL OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY World energy consumption is projected to increase at about 1. 8%/year between 2000 and 2030(driven by economic and population growth) Industrialized countries experience a slowdown in their energy demand growth (0. 4%/year in the EU) the energy demand of developing countries is growing rapidly(55% used by them in 2030) The world energy system will continue to be dominated by fossil fuels. In 2030, fossil fuels are expected to represent almost 90% of total energy demand (coal 28%) Almost two-thirds of the increase in coal demand between 2000 and 2030 comes from Asia world CO 2 emissions are expected to grow rapidly

GLOBAL OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY In 2030, fossil fuels (coal, lignite, oil and natural gas) are projected to represent 90% of world energy consumption greater than 81% in 2000 Oil still represents the largest share (34%) of the world gross inland consumption (GIC) in 2030 Oil demand increases at a rate of 1. 6%/year Natural gas demand increases by 3%/year on average between 2000 and 2010 and by 2. 1%/year afterwards extending to 25% in from 21% in 2000. Coal demand has been growing steadily with growth of coal consumption 0. 9%/year from 1990 to 2000 but after 2000 it goes to 2. 1%/ and then to 2. 5%/year until 2030 as it becomes more competitive Nuclear energy consumption drops in 2030, nuclear represents 5% of the world GIC, compared to 7% in 2000.

GLOBAL OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY

Global Energy Consumption by Sector

Global Energy Consumption and CO 2 production

EUROPEAN OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY Oil represents 39% of EU total energy consumption by 2030 Natural gas represents 27% of EU total energy consumption by 2030 Coal and lignite presents 16% of EU total energy consumption by 2030

EU Energy Consumption

EU Energy Consumption by Sector

EUROPE OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY CONSUMTION

World Power Generation The share of conventional coal in power generation is expected to decrease from 36 % in 2000 to 12 % in 2030 The share of gas in power generation increase from 16% to 25% in 2030 The share of advanced coal in power generation increases by 33% in 2030 Hydropower and nuclear power generation decreases on average 8%

World Power Generation

EU Power Generation

Electricity by 2030 accounting for almost a quarter of final energy demand coal use for electricity declines in industrialized countries production of electricity increases steadily at an average rate of 3 %/year. half of the production in 2030 will be provided by technologies that emerged in the nineties and afterwards like combined cycle gas turbines, advanced coal technologies and renewable.

Electricity use and GDP per capita, 1980 -2030

World Coal Supply Easily accessible significant reserves exist in North America, in Asia, in Africa and in the Pacific region Important coal reserves exist in Russia but coal production and transport costs are there considerably higher than in the other regions so production is low Coal supply is not subject to resources constraints Production is essentially demand driven production is also expected to double between 2000 and 2030, Coal production is expected to grow by 2. 3%/year on average over the projection period, mostly in Africa and Asia (respectively 4. 5% and 3%/year) Production will continue to decline in the EU (-0. 8%/year) In 2030, more than half the world’s coal production comes from Asia (China 35%) Coal production is also expected to double between by 2030

World Coal Production

Coal Prices The coal price is expected to remain relatively stable at around 10 €/bl in 2030 compare to 35 €/bl in 2030 for oil and 28 €/bl in 2030 for gas Increases of 15 to 35 % from current price levels for coal The modernization and mechanization of coal production will exert downward pressure on prices Limited increases in world coal prices since there is abundance of coal

Advanced Coal Solid fuel burning technologies n n Supercritical coal plants Integrated coal gasification The integrated coal gasification combined cycle power plant (IGCC) The direct coal fired combined cycle plant

The supercritical coal power plant. Technology n Achieves high conversion efficiencies applying supercritical steam conditions (higher pressure and temperature of the steam) Special materials are necessary to withstand these conditions Capital cost of the technology is around 1100 €/k. W Low operating and maintenance costs (by coal fired power plant standards) Better coal technology than Integrated coal gasification Techno-economic performance of this type of plant by 2030 n n n efficiency is increased to 55 % by 2030 capital cost brought down to 800 €/k. W by 10 % reduction in operation and maintenance (O&M) costs was also introduced gaining about 20 % of world total central power generation 30 % of world coal generation by 2030

Integrated coal gasification combined cycle power plant (IGCC) Technology n Applies coal gasification with combustion of the coal gas in a gas turbine and the recovery of waste heat in a boiler The technology reaches about 50 % efficiency Capital cost of the technology is around 1350 €/k. W by 2030 Relatively high operating and maintenance costs of about 87 €/k. W About half the importance of supercritical coal Techno-economic performance of this type of plant by 2030 n n n substantially improved to reach 54 % efficiency 28 % reductions in capital 10% in fixed O&M costs.

The direct coal fired combined cycle plant Technology n n applying a gas turbine and a steam turbine in a combined cycle. However, the coal is directly burnt in the gas turbine without previous gasification technology will be available only after 2015 The presence of coal particles inside the turbine poses technical problems, still unsolved Capital-cost projected at 1250 €/k. W, reaching 50 % thermal efficiency by 2030 relatively low operating costs Techno-economic performance of this type of plant by 2030 n n capital cost of 960 €/k. W an efficiency of 54 % 28 % reductions in capital 10% in fixed O&M costs.