LESSON 5 4 Making Predictions with Experimental Probability

LESSON 5. 4 Making Predictions with Experimental Probability How do you make predictions using experimental probability?

ADDITIONAL EXAMPLE 1 Lorenzo found that his experimental probability of getting a hit is 40%. Out of 350 at bats, about how many hits could he predict he would make about 140 hits

ADDITIONAL EXAMPLE 2 The owner of a rafting company notices that 16% of customers call to cancel before a guided rafting trip. The owner predicts that of 850 customers booked for the week, 102 will cancel. Do you agree with the prediction? Explain. No, about 136 customers will cancel. The prediction is low.

ADDITIONAL EXAMPLE 3 On average, a gym claims that 85% of its members renew their memberships every year. If the gym has 400 members, predict how many will renew their membership. Is the gym’s claim accurate if 330 members renew their memberships? About 340 people will renew. Yes, 330 renewals is very close to the predicted 340.

5. 4 LESSON QUIZ 7. 6. C 1. A librarian noticed that 60% of seventh graders checked out fantasy books. About how many of 240 seventh graders would check out fantasy books? 144 seventh graders 2. A tennis player gets an ace 35% of his serves. Out of 80 serves, about how many aces will he get? 28 aces

3. A light bulb manufacturer finds that 4% of the bulbs it makes are defective. The quality control officer predicts that 700 bulbs will be defective out of 15, 500 bulbs made. Do you agree? Explain. No, about 620 will be defective. The prediction is high.

4. A delivery service claims that orders arrive before noon 90% of the time. If Amy uses the delivery service 20 times, how many times can she predict the deliveries will arrive before noon? Is the claim accurate if her packages arrive after noon 4 times? She can predict the packages will arrive before noon 18 times. No, the claim is not accurate if 4 packages arrive after noon.

How do you make predictions using experimental probability? Sample answer: Write an equation to find the likelihood of the event. Use the likelihood to make the prediction.