Lesson 3 ODOT Analysis Assessment Analysis Assessment Learning

Lesson 3 ODOT Analysis & Assessment

Analysis & Assessment Learning Outcomes • As part of a small group, apply the twopart analysis by generating exposureresponse profiles to predict risk to REC sustainability • Distinguish between analysis and assessment

Analysis & Assessment Scoping Analysis Evaluate Conduct: Identify useful information 1. Action. Focused Analysis 2. Resource. Focused Analysis Document uses and limits of the information

Analysis 7 Assessment More Reading! Fritiofson v. Alexander

Analysis & Assessment The Fritiofson v. Alexander Five Part Test: 1. What is the geographic area affected by the project? 2. What are the resources affected by the project? 3. What are the other past, present, and reasonably foreseeable actions that have impacted these resources? 4. What were those impacts? 5. What is the overall impact on these various resources from the accumulation of the actions? Fritiofson v. Alexander

Assessment Useful Information should support informed decisions • What is relevant to the decision makers? • What is relevant to the public and stakeholders? • What is the most efficient and effective means of collecting that information? • How will this information be used to foster a better decision?

Two-Part Analytic Question To inform decisions, environmental impact analyses must be broken into two-parts: • • What effect does the action have on specific resources? i. e. , action-focused What does that effect mean from the perspective of the resource itself? i. e. , resource-focused

Assessment Scoping REC’s • Selecting RECs for analyses • Relevant to the Decision and Decisionmakers? • Provides the most useful information? • Accepted as surrogate or indicator? • Relevance to the decision at hand? • Time and cost effective

Assessment Scoping REC’s • Hydrology Ø Surface, Groundwater, Soil water • Air Ø Air Quality, Visibility • Biota Ø Representative, Unique, Imperiled Species and Communities; Habitats

Assessment Scoping REC’s • • Socioeconomics Education Services Traffic and Transportation Human Health Public and Emergency Services Community Cohesion Economic Stability

Assessment Scoping REC’s • Noise Impacts Ø Humans, Wildlife, Aesthetic • Visual Impacts Ø Viewsheds, Aesthetics, • Cultural Impacts Ø Archeological, Historical, Architectural

Assessment Models of REC’s Uses of Models: • Transparency and Clarity; • Repeatable Analysis; • Identification of Effective Mitigation Strategies; • Acknowledgement of Uncertainties • Two-Part Analysis

Assessment Scoping for RFFAs • Other transportation projects … • … airport, freight, and transit • Other Federal agency activities • … approved NEPA documents or projects under study • Activities in approved land use and development plans • Major private projects • Reasonably foreseeable

Analysis Two-Part Analysis of Effects Action-Focused • HØ – 1 = effects are reasonably detectable Resource-Focused • HØ – 2 = effects contribute to factors that shift the REC across the threshold of sustainability into a new dynamic state

Analysis Looking for Degradation • • • Sustainability and Thresholds Resilience and Internal Controls Most Probable State, Dynamic Equilibrium, Regime Feedbacks and Adjustments Cross-scale interactions

Analysis Action-Focused • exposure-response profile • cause-effect Resource-Focused • Sustainability and optimize mitigation Mitigation • alternate exposure – response profile • offset other agent’s effects • Cut opportunity costs

Analysis What are the Consequences, anyways? Action-Focused • Develop exposure-response profile Resource-Focused • Assess sustainability Mitigation • Alternate exposure – response profile • Alternate sustainability outcome Reduce Risk and Uncertainty • Coherence • Monitoring and Adaptive Management

Assessment & Analysis Reminder on ICI Nomenclature ►Proposed action or alternative under review must have a direct and/or indirect effect on a specific resource for the proposal or alternative to exert a cumulative influence ►If no direct and/or indirect effect to a specific resource is suspected, there is no need to consider cumulative effects to that resource

Analysis • Assess REC’s Exposure • Assess REC’s Response • Assess Risk from Exposure-Response Profile

Analysis Action-Focused • Generate Exposure-Response Profiles • Evaluate the Profiles for Input to the Resource-Focused Effects Analysis

Analysis Action-Focused Generate Exposure-Response Profiles Use qualitative and quantitative techniques to estimate the magnitude and intensity of potentially significant action-focused effects, and to enhance comparative descriptions of future conditions

Analysis • Risk analyses integrate exposure and response profiles to estimate the risk the Action poses to REC (especially the sustainability of the REC)

Analysis • Exposure means co-occurrences or interactions between REC (reduced) and (deconstructed elements of) the proposed Action • multiple orders: first, second, … • multiple scales: spatial and temporal

Analysis Response Assessment • Response of Resources to exposure • This may be serial or multi-faceted exposure-responses

Analysis • Exposure will tell us which individuals from particular Resource of Interest are likely to be exposed, over what area and time, and with what intensity • Response will tell us what will happen to those particular Resources of Interest upon exposure

Analytic Framework • Risk analyses consider the response profile, along with other stressors, to assess the REC’s and system’s resilience to perturbation and the potential of these stressors to push the REC and system across a threshold to an alternate structure and form.

Analysis Action-Focused Assess the Consequences • Does exposure-response profile provide sound input to resource-focused part of effects analysis? • Is the information useful for decision-making? • Identify unacceptable exposure-response profiles or levels of uncertainty (mitigate? )

Analysis Resource-Focused • What is the Overall Impact from the accumulation of actions?

Analysis Resource-Focused • Identify the important exposure-response profiles or cause-and-effect relationships between the REC and proposed project • Determine the magnitude and significance of cumulative effects

Analysis Resource-Focused • Consider mitigation to reduce total effects, including adding new alternatives • Monitor and, if warranted, Adapt Management

Analysis Resource-Focused Response Assessment • Sustainability • “Regulatory” Thresholds – Administrative: Statute, Rule, or Guidance – Community Standard or Perceived – “Natural” Poor Word Choice: “Regulatory” does not limit

Analysis Resource-Focused • • Thresholds Resilience Trends Sustainability (for complex systems, consider adjustments and feedbacks, too)

Sustainability System Response • • • Sustainability and Thresholds Resilience and Internal Controls Most Probable State, Dynamic Equilibrium, Regime Feedbacks and Adjustments Cross-scale interactions

Trend of Resource Attribute

Trend of Resource Attribute

Trend of Resource Attribute

Trend of Resource Attribute

Trend of Resource Attribute

Trend of Resource Attribute

Analysis & Assessment Changing & Avoiding Outcomes • Mitigation • Monitoring • Adaptive Management

Analysis & Assessment Documentation • Draw Conclusions – What Do We Know (Supported by Data)? – What Do We Not Know (Assumptions and Extrapolations)? – Is What We Do Not Know Important For the Decision (Risk and Uncertainty)?

Analysis & Assessment Exercise Model REC and project ID “sustainable” for this REC Describe Interactions of REC and project Action-Focused Exposure-Response Profile Resource-Focused Risk to sustainability Identify Mitigation Options Monitoring or Adaptive Management to reduce Uncertainty

Analysis & Assessment Review • As part of a small group, apply the twopart analysis by generating exposureresponse profiles to predict risk to REC sustainability • Distinguish between analysis and assessment