LESSON 3 DEVELOPMENT AND REVIEW OF TRAFFIC ANALYSIS

LESSON 3 DEVELOPMENT AND REVIEW OF TRAFFIC ANALYSIS ZONE DATA 1

PART A WHAT ARE TRAFFIC ANALYSIS ZONES? FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 2

LESSON GOALS • In this lesson, we will discuss: • What is a Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ)? • Guidelines for delineating TAZs • Socioeconomic data used in models • Other zone-based model data FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 3

WHAT IS A TRAFFIC ANALYSIS ZONE (TAZ)? • TAZs are the basic unit of model geography dividing a planning region into relatively similar areas of land use activity • Zones contain socioeconomic data used in models, represent the origins and destinations of travel activity within the region, and serve as the primary unit of analysis in a travel forecasting model • Zone centroids and connectors are used to load trips on to FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP transportation networks 4

WHAT IS A TAZ? (CONT’D) • Zone numbers typically begin with one and are consecutive, although consecutive zone numbering is no longer a requirement of most modern travel modeling software, except Cube • Zones are usually a subset or agglomeration of census geography and data because: • Census data are readily available for planning purposes • Nested architecture ensures the ability to disaggregate and aggregate data FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 5

STRUCTURE OF TAZS Centroid Connector Network Link • Centroids are used to identify the center of activity within a zone • Centroid Connectors are used to load trips from each zone to transportation network links • Nodes represent a point where two links join in a network, usually representing a decision point for route choice, but sometimes indicating only a change in link attribute • Nodes that are not centroids can begin with any non-zero number and need not be consecutive Centroid Nodes FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 6

DELINEATING TAZS – ZONE SIZE • Match TAZ Size to model purpose and scale: • • • Large for statewide or national corridor planning Medium for regional models Small for urban corridor or subarea analysis • Match TAZ size to network density. • Carefully consider transit access when delineating TAZs. FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 7

DELINEATING TAZS – BARRIERS & BOUNDARIES • Ensure TAZ boundaries are not bisected by natural physical barriers such as waterways and wetlands • Try to follow predefined geographic boundaries such as: • • • Census geography (blocks, block groups, tracts, etc. ) Major transportation features (highways, rail corridors, etc. ) Political boundaries (county lines, city limits, etc. ) FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 8

DELINEATING TAZS – BARRIERS & BOUNDARIES Not good practice Good practice FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 9

DELINEATING TAZS – BARRIERS & BOUNDARIES • Attempt to minimize irregular TAZ shapes • Zone shape might cause unreasonable trip loadings FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 10

DELINEATING TAZS – BARRIERS & BOUNDARIES • Different types of Census geography • • (blocks, block groups, tracts) PUMAs > 100, 000 population • Delineation example by Census block group FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 11

DELINEATING TAZS – POLITICAL GEOGRAPHY • Why Delineate by Political Geography? • Some input data are reported by city • Most data are reported by county FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 12

DELINEATING TAZS – SE DATA • Keep land uses homogeneous as best as possible • Two sources for land use data • Comprehensive plan (generalized/aggregated • Property appraisers parcel information (detailed) FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 13

DELINEATING TAZS – TRANSIT ACCESS • Scale zone size to be walkable • Ideally ¼ mile to ½ mile sides on a hypothetical square zone • Split zone to better represent walk access Two zones with bus service, but excessive connector length prevents walk-access connections Overestimating walk access to transit 1 mile FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP Development Over-Estimation 0. 5 mile Development More Accurate Estimation 14

DELINEATING TAZS – TRANSIT ACCESS • Other issues to address • Large zone with concentrated transit activity • Try to make zone size relative to activity level for transit purposes (i. e. , consider splitting zone if transit activity is only in a small portion of zone) FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 15

FILES AFFECTED BY DELINEATING NEW TAZS • When TAZs are added, deleted, or changed, new zone ID numbers (file key attribute in GIS shapefile) may exist • Therefore, model files dealing directly with GIS zonal data will be affected • These files include: • • • Socioeconomic Data Files (ZDATA or equivalent) Highway Network Files Zone geographic files Script Files or Catalog keys with respect to maximum zone number Output FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 16

QUIZ #5 • When splitting TAZs, which files should be reviewed and modified accordingly? (Please circle all that apply) A. B. C. D. E. F. G. H. Script files (& catalog keys) Output network Input network Socioeconomic data Friction factors PCwalk Zone geography External trip data FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 17

QUIZ #5 - ANSWERS • When splitting TAZs, which files should be reviewed and modified accordingly? (Please circle all that apply) A. B. C. D. E. F. G. H. Script files (& catalog keys) Output network Input network Socioeconomic data Friction factors PCwalk Zone geography External trip data FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 18

PART B SOCIOECONOMIC DATA FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 19

SOCIOECONOMIC DATA FSUTMS standard SE data file: zonedata_yya. dbf FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 20

SOCIOECONOMIC DATA The following are standard attributes for the zone data file: FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP Standard or Optional S S S S S S O O O Variable Name Zone SFDU SFPCTVNP SFPCTVAC SFPOP SF_0 AUTO SF_1 AUTO SF_2 AUTO MFDU MFPCTVNP MFPCTVAC MFPOP MF_0 AUTO MF_1 AUTO MF_2 AUTO HMDU HMOCC HMPOP IND_EMP COMM_EMP SERV_EMP TOT_EMP SCHOOL SECTOR DRI Name BUILDOUT Year SHORTPARK LONGPARK Description Zone ID Number Single-Family Dwelling Units % Vacant/Non-Permanent Single-Family Dwelling Units % Vacant Single-Family Population Single-Family Dwelling Units with 0 Autos Single-Family Dwelling Units with 1 Auto Single-Family Dwelling Units with 2+ Autos Multi-Family Dwelling Units % Vacant/Non-Permanent Multi-Family Dwelling Units % Vacant Multi-Family Population Multi-Family Dwelling Units with 0 Autos Multi-Family Dwelling Units with 1 Auto Multi-Family Dwelling Units with 2+ Autos Hotel-Motel Dwelling Units % Occupied Hotel-Motel Population Industrial Employment Commercial/Retail Employment Service Employment Total Employment School Enrollment Planning District or Sector Number Name for Zones in DRI Estimated Build-out Year for DRI Short Term Parking Cost Long Term Parking Cost 21

SOURCES OF SOCIOECONOMIC DATA • The primary source of household data is the U. S. Census. • The Census publishes the American Community Survey (ACS) files, which include information on population and dwelling unit characteristics • The Census Transportation Planning Products (CTPP) is another good source for auto availability • Hotel and Motel information can be obtained through the DBPR Hotel/Motel Division or local chambers of commerce • Local planning departments can be contacted for parcel data, development orders, future land use maps, and utility hookups FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 22

SOURCES OF SOCIOECONOMIC DATA (CONT’D) • In 2014, FDOT purchased private employment data from Info. Group (aka Info. USA) for the entire state of Florida • www. infogroup. com • Employment data used in the zone data file had been traditionally obtained through the Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation (AWI) • The FDOT Policy Planning Office in Tallahassee has access to the AWI records through a confidential employer number-matching program FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 23

SOURCES OF SOCIOECONOMIC DATA (CONT’D) • Other sources of employment data include: • • • Longitudinal Employment and Household Dynamics (LEHD) Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) at the University of Florida Local Chambers of Commerce Dun and Bradstreet (Base Year) Woods and Poole (Forecast Year) • Public school enrollment data can be obtained from local school boards or the Florida Department of Education (DOE) • The DOE has some data on private schools, but private schools may need to be contacted individually FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 24

QUIZ #6 • Identify whether the attribute referred to is a standard SE input variable: • • Link Distance Lanes Zone TOLL_ID SHORTPARK SFDU IND_EMP FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 25

QUIZ #6 – ANSWERS • Identify whether the attribute referred to is a standard SE input variable. • • Link Distance Lanes Zone TOLL_ID SHORTPARK SFDU IND_EMP FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 26

END OF LESSON 3, PART B PLEASE PROCEED TO GUIDED EXERCISES 8 AND 9 FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 27

PART C OTHER ZONE-BASED DATA FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 28

OTHER ZONE-BASED DATA • Special Generators (SPECGEN) • External Trips • Overview • Internal-External (INTEXT) • External-External (EETRIPS) • Growth Factoring FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 29

SPECIAL GENERATORS • Unique land uses that generate trips in a manner that differs from standard trip rates • Examples include: • • Airports Large Malls College Campuses Military Installations: Air Bases, Ports, Forts etc. Large Amusement Theme Parks (Disney, Universal Studio, etc. ) External Stations Nature Parks/Beaches Ports • Special generators may be employed to fully account for these unique trip FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP patterns 30

SPECIAL GENERATORS (CONT’D) • Special generator trips are used to adjust trip productions or attractions upwards or downwards to arrive at an acceptable number of trips • For example: parks and beaches normally have few workers and would produce very few attractions based on employment. By computing a value for the TAZ from some other source, the planner can correctly estimate attractions to these sites. • The number of special generators trips for each purpose must be calculated offline and specified in SPECGEN file FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 31

APPLYING SPECIAL GENERATORS IN FSUTMS • Special generators are generally added during validation for specific problems • Can be addition, subtraction, or total (replacement); for production or attraction • Model Update Task B outlined specific land uses for special generator use • Some updates to special generator recommendations were also provided in the FSUTMS Users Library FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 32

APPLYING SPECIAL GENERATORS IN FSUTMS (CONT’D) • Special generators can improve model validation accuracy • Special generators are sometimes used in site impact studies • Compute site-generated trips using Model Update Task B, Users Library or ITE and include difference into files • Add university/college trips (not always included in file) • Special generators are usually trip attractions (employment/enrollment end of trip) • Primary exception is group quarters (dorms, barracks) • When Non-Home-Based (NHB) trips are listed as attractions, equivalent NHB productions are automatically calculated FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 33

SOURCE OF SPECIAL GENERATOR DATA - ITE • ITE Trip Generation based on nationwide research • Daily & peak trip rates for land uses • Vehicle trip rates only (except airports) • No data on vehicle occupancy (except airports) • No data on trip purposes • Insufficient sample for some land uses • Updated when sufficient new data are submitted to ITE from various surveys • New survey data submitted to ITE by anyone using forms found in manual • Latest (10 th) Edition published in September 2017 FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 34

SPECIAL GENERATOR FILE IN SCENARIO MANAGER • Special generator file • Actual file showing OPERAND to be applied and trips (P’s or A’s to be applied) FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 35

MATCH GAME Match trip purpose with special generator type: • University dorm trips • Outlet mall trips • Airport trips • Amusement park trips (Walt Disney World, etc. ) • Large commercial aircraft assembly plant trips FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP • HBSH A’s • HBW A’s • HBSC P’s • HBSR A’s • NHB P’s • HBO A’s 36

MATCH GAME – ANSWERS Match trip purpose with special generator type. • University dorm trips • Outlet mall trips • Airport trips • Amusement park trips (Walt Disney World, etc. ) • Large commercial aircraft assembly plant trips FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP • HBSH A’s • HBW A’s • HBSC P’s • HBSR A’s • NHB P’s • HBO A’s 37

EXTERNAL TRIPS • External trips are those that cross the model boundary • There are two kinds of external trips: • Trips that pass from one model boundary to the another without ending in the study area (External – External) • Trips that have one end outside the study area (Internal – External or External – Internal) • Separate processes are used for internal-external trips and external-external trips FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 38

INTERNAL vs. EXTERNAL I I External-External (E-E) E Cordon Line Internal-Internal (I-I) I Internal-External (IE-EI) Study Area E E NOTE: I-I Trips have both ends of trip inside the study area E-E Trips have both ends of trip outside the study area IE – EI Trips have one end inside and one end outside FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 39

EXTERNAL PROCESS • The External Process is used to produce an external to external trip table for a study area; these are trips that pass through the urban area and do not stop • Each urban area has developed an existing table of external to external trips for the study area, generally developed from surveys conducted at external stations • The external process takes the existing table in a DBF format and builds a trip table matrix that can be read by Cube FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 40

EXTERNAL PROCESS (CONT’D) • The existing trip table can be expanded by a Fratar Program to match the expected growth at the external stations • Alternatively, future year EETRIPS can be entered manually through application of spreadsheets and trend data FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 41

EXTERNAL TRAVEL SURVEYS • External Travel Surveys are conducted to understand the travel behavior of trips entering and/or leaving the study area • Questions are asked of drivers to understand where the driver is coming from, where the driver is going to, and why the driver is making the trip • These surveys are used to develop EE trip origin and destination (O&D) matrices and EE/IE trip splits FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 42

EXTERNAL TRAVEL SURVEY METHODS • Vehicle Intercept • Requires pulling over vehicles and asking the drivers about the trips that they are making; cooperation from law enforcement is necessary • This type of survey is generally more robust than other methods • Benefits include high response rates and a high degree of control over the sampling method • Not presently allowed in Florida FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 43

EXTERNAL TRAVEL SURVEY METHODS (CONT’D) • Rest Stop Intercept • Requires approaching drivers who have stopped at a rest area weigh station, or truck stop • High degree of selection bias dependent on the driver’s desire to stop at that location (greater proportion of long-distance trip makers) FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 44

EXTERNAL TRAVEL SURVEY METHODS (CONT’D) • Video Mail-Back • Requires setting up cameras to capture images of vehicle license plates and cross-checking against DMV records, then mailing surveys to the drivers • Response rates impacted by time lag • Limits in video technology make it difficult to accurately identify license plates • Inter-agency cooperation is required in order to acquire DMV records (out-of-state plates, rental cars) FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 45

EXTERNAL TRAVEL SURVEY METHODS (CONT’D) • Video Coordination • Requires setting up cameras to capture images of vehicle license plates and coordinating the license plate images with other video captures around the perimeter of the study area • Only provides information concerning EE O&D and EE/IE split; trip purpose information is not revealed • Limits in video technology can make it difficult to accurately identify license plates FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 46

EXTERNAL TRAVEL SURVEY METHODS (CONT’D) • Location-Based Data • • Provided by several vendors Determines an individual’s near exact location (10 m accuracy) based on the location services used within smartphone apps • Bluetooth Data • Allows developers to determine where vehicles enter and leave the model area based on vehicle/smartphone device communication with Bluetooth receivers placed along a roadway FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 47

EXTERNAL-EXTERNAL TRIPS • External-External input/output files • Input • eetrips_yya. dbf – values from survey • Output • eetable_ayy. mat – balanced external-external trip table • Trips are listed in a matrix format of origin AND destination zones FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 48

EXTERNAL INPUT/OUTPUT FILES EETRIPS Output EETRIPS Input FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 49

INTERNAL-EXTERNAL TRIPS • The INTEXT_yya. DBF file contains information on the number of internal-external trips produced at the model’s external stations • Unlike EETRIPS, INTEXT only requires specification of trips by one trip end (i. e. , at the external zone) • The terms internal-external and external-internal are usually interchangeable in Florida FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 50

CALCULATE GROWTH FACTOR FOR NEW VALIDATION YEAR Growth Factor = Current Count/Old Count Volume at Station Given Current Count = 13, 000 and Old Count = 12, 200 Growth Factor = 13, 000/12, 200 = 1. 09 External Station or External Zone Cordon Line FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP ips 1. 09 r T * E E 000 , 10 = = EI/ 2, IE 20 T 0 rip *1 s. 0 9 51

DEVELOPMENT OF FUTURE EXTERNAL TRIPS • Factors can be developed for each external station • Growth trends & projections: • Historical Counts • Population, employment, tag registration growth factors by external zone, study area, or adjacent county • Base year IE/EE splits • Growth factors applied similar to new validation year example FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 52

DEVELOPMENT OF FUTURE EXTERNAL TRIPS (CONT’D) • Historic count trends are good indicators of short-term to midterm future growth • Population and employment forecasts for modeled county and adjacent counties are good indicators of long-term growth: • Population – University of Florida Bureau of Economic & Business Research (BEBR) • Employment – Woods and Poole • Florida Traffic Information CD can forecast future traffic volumes based on historic trends FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 53

HISTORICAL DATA FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 54

HISTORICAL PROJECTIONS Count Projections 40, 000 30, 000 20, 000 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP Alternative Factors to Analyze • Population (Census, UF) • Vehicle Tag Registration (DMV) • Gas Sales (Local planning agencies) • Gas Tax (Local planning agencies) 55

Trends FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 56

DATA ENTRY – SCREEN 1 (OPTIONS) • PIN Number, FTI Database, County & Station Number • Station Information • Project Information • Selection of Current and Future Projection Years • Type of Projection: • • • Linear Exponential Decaying Exponential • Data can be entered either manually or read directly from the Traffic Information CD FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 57

DATA ENTRY – SCREEN 1 FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 58

DATA ENTRY – SCREEN 2 FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 59

STRAIGHT LINE GROWTH OPTION 60

EXPONENTIAL GROWTH OPTION 61

DECAYING EXPONENTIAL GROWTH OPTION 62

QUIZ #7 • A family of four is traveling from Dallas, TX to Miami, FL in their automobile. What type of trip is this in the Florida Statewide Model (FLSWM)? • Another trip is being undertaken by a separate family of four from Pensacola, FL to Miami, FL: • What type of trip is this in the Central Florida Regional Model, assuming the trip goes via Florida’s Turnpike through Orlando? • • What type of trip is this in the FLSWM? What type of trip is this in the Southeast Florida Regional Model? • Would an airport trip with persons arriving from outside be treated as an I-E trip or would it be handled as a special generator? FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 63

QUIZ #7 – ANSWERS • A family of four is traveling from Dallas, TX to Miami, FL in their automobile. What type of trip is this in the Florida Statewide Model (FLSWM)? E-I • Another trip is being undertaken by a separate family of four from Pensacola, FL to Miami, FL: • What type of trip is this in the Central Florida Regional Model, assuming the trip goes via Florida’s Turnpike through Orlando? E-E • • What type of trip is this in the FLSWM? I-I What type of trip is this in the Southeast Florida Regional Model? E-I • Would an airport trip with persons arriving from outside be treated as an I-E trip or would it be handled as a special generator? Special generator FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 64

END OF LESSON 3, PART C FSUTMS COMPREHENSIVE MODELING WORKSHOP 65