Lecture 8 b on Chapter 20 Risk Management

Lecture 8 b on Chapter 20 Risk Management in Financial Institutions

Chapter Preview • We examine how financial institutions manage credit risk, default risk, etc. We explore the tools available to managers to measure these risks and strategies to reduce them. Topics include: – Managing Credit Risk – Managing Interest-Rate Risk ACF 104 Financial Institutions 24 -2

Managing Credit Risk • A major part of the business of financial institutions is making loans, and the major risk with loans is that the borrow will not repay. • Credit risk is the risk that a borrower will nor repay a loan according to the terms of the loan, either defaulting entirely or making late payments of interest or principal. ACF 104 Financial Institutions 24 -3

Managing Credit Risk • Once again, the concepts of adverse selection and moral hazard will provide our framework to understand the principles financial managers must follow to minimize credit risk, yet make successful loans. ACF 104 Financial Institutions 24 -4

Managing Credit Risk • Adverse selection is a problem in the market for loans because those with the highest credit risk have the biggest incentives to borrow from others. • Moral hazard plays as role as well. Once a borrow has a loan, she has an incentive to engage in risky projects to produce the highest payoffs, especially if the project is financed mostly with debt. ACF 104 Financial Institutions 24 -5

Managing Credit Risk • Solving Asymmetric Information Problems: financial managers have a number of tools available to assist in reducing or eliminating the asymmetric information problem: 1. Screening: collecting reliable information about prospective borrowers. This has also lead some institutions to specialize in regions or industries, gaining expertise in evaluating particular firms or individuals. ACF 104 Financial Institutions 24 -6

Managing Credit Risk 1. Monitoring: requiring certain actions, or prohibiting others, and then periodically verifying that the borrower is complying with the terms of the loan contact. 2. Long-term Customer Relationships: past information contained in checking accounts, savings accounts, and previous loans provides valuable information to more easily determine credit worthiness. ACF 104 Financial Institutions 24 -7

Managing Credit Risk 1. Loan Commitments: arrangements where the bank agrees to provide a loan up to a fixed amount, whenever the firm requests the loan. 2. Collateral: a pledge of property or other assets that must be surrendered if the terms of the loan are not met ( the loans are called secured loans). ACF 104 Financial Institutions 24 -8

Managing Credit Risk 1. Compensating Balances: reserves that a borrower must maintain in an account that act as collateral should the borrower default. 2. Credit rationing: (1) lenders will refuse to lend to some borrowers, regardless of how much interest they are willing to pay, or (2) lenders will only finance part of a project, requiring that the remaining part come from equity financing. ACF 104 Financial Institutions 24 -9

Managing Interest-Rate Risk • Financial institutions, banks in particular, specialize in earning a higher rate of return on their assets relative to the interest paid on their liabilities. • As interest rate volatility increased in the last 20 years, interest-rate risk exposure has become a concern for financial institutions. ACF 104 Financial Institutions 24 -10

Managing Interest-Rate Risk • To see how financial institutions can measure and manage interest-rate risk exposure, we will examine the balance sheet for First National Bank (next slide). • We will develop two tools, (1) Income Gap Analysis and (2) Duration Gap Analysis, to assist the financial manager in this effort. ACF 104 Financial Institutions 24 -11

Managing Interest-Rate Risk Management Association home page ACF 104 Financial Institutions http: //www. rmahq. org 24 -12

Income Gap Analysis • Income Gap Analysis: measures the sensitivity of a bank’s current year net income to changes in interest rate. • Requires determining which assets and liabilities will have their interest rate change as market interest rates change. Let’s see how that works for First National Bank. ACF 104 Financial Institutions 24 -13

Income Gap Analysis: Determining Rate Sensitive Items for First National Bank Assets – assets with maturity less than one year – variable-rate mortgages – short-term commercial loans – portion of fixed-rate mortgages (say 20%) Liabilities money market deposits variable-rate CDs short-term CDs federal funds short-term borrowings portion of checkable deposits (10%) – portion of savings (20%) – – – ACF 104 Financial Institutions 24 -14

Income Gap Analysis: Determining Rate Sensitive Items for First National Bank Rate-Sensitive Assets RSA = $32 m = $5 m + $ 10 m + $15 m + 20% $20 m Rate-Sensitive Liabs = $5 m + $25 m + $5 m+ $10 m + 10% $15 m + 20% $15 m RSL = $49. 5 m if i 5% Asset Income = +5% $32. 0 m Liability Costs = +5% $49. 5 m Income = $1. 6 m $ 2. 5 = +$ 1. 6 m = +$ 2. 5 m = $0. 9 m ACF 104 Financial Institutions 24 -15

Income Gap Analysis If RSL > RSA, i results in: NIM , Income GAP = RSA RSL = $32. 0 m $49. 5 m Income = GAP i = $17. 5 m 5% = $17. 5 m = $0. 9 m This is essentially a short-term focus on interest-rate risk exposure. A longer-term focus uses duration gap analysis. ACF 104 Financial Institutions 24 -16

Duration Gap Analysis • Owners and managers do care about the impact of interest rate exposure on current net income. They are also interested in the impact of interest rate changes on the market value of balance sheet items and the impact on net worth. • The concept of duration, which first appeared in chapter 3, plays a role here. ACF 104 Financial Institutions 24 -17

Duration Gap Analysis • Duration Gap Analysis: measures the sensitivity of a bank’s current year net income to changes in interest rate. • Requires determining the duration for assets and liabilities, items whose market value will change as interest rates change. Let’s see how this looks for First National Bank. ACF 104 Financial Institutions 24 -18

Duration of First National Bank's Assets and Liabilities ACF 104 Financial Institutions 24 -19

Duration of First National Bank's Assets and Liabilities (cont. ) ACF 104 Financial Institutions 24 -20

Duration Gap Analysis The basic equation for determining the change in market value for assets or liabilities is: % Change in Value = – DUR x [Δi / (1 + i)] or Change in Value = – DUR x [Δi / (1 + i)] x Original Value ACF 104 Financial Institutions 24 -21

Duration Gap Analysis Consider a change in rates from 10% to 15%. Using the value from Table 1, we see: Assets: Asset Value = 2. 7 . 05/(1 +. 10) $100 m = $12. 3 m ACF 104 Financial Institutions 24 -22

Duration Gap Analysis Liabilities: Liability Value = 1. 03 . 05/(1 +. 10) $95 m = $4. 5 m Net Worth: NW = Assets – Liabilities NW = $12. 3 m ( $4. 5 m) = $7. 8 m ACF 104 Financial Institutions 24 -23

Duration Gap Analysis • For a rate change from 10% to 15%, the net worth of First National Bank will fall, changing by $7. 8 m. • Recall from the balance sheet that First National Bank has “Bank capital” totaling $5 m. Following such a dramatic change in rate, the capital would fall to $2. 8 m. ACF 104 Financial Institutions 24 -24

Duration Gap Analysis For First National Bank, with a rate change from 10% to 15%, these equations are: DURgap = DURa [L/A DURl] % NW = DURgap i/(1 + i) ACF 104 Financial Institutions 24 -25

Duration Gap Analysis Another version of this analysis, which combines the steps into two equations, is: DURgap = DURa [L/A DURl] % NW = DURgap i/(1 + i) = 2. 7 [(95/100) 1. 03] = 1. 72 . 05/(1 +. 10) = . 078, or 7. 8% ACF 104 Financial Institutions 24 -26

Duration Gap Analysis • So far, we have focused on how to apply income gap analysis and duration gap analysis in a banking environment. • The same analysis can be applied to other financial institutions. For example, let’s look at a simple finance company which makes consumer loans. The balance sheet and duration worksheet for Friendly Finance Co. follows. ACF 104 Financial Institutions 24 -27

Duration Gap Analysis ACF 104 Financial Institutions 24 -28

ACF 104 Financial Institutions 24 -29

Income Gap Analysis: Determining Rate Sensitive Items for Friendly Finance Co. Assets – securities with a maturity less than one year – consumer loans with a maturity less than one year Liabilities – commercial paper – bank loans with a maturity less than one year ACF 104 Financial Institutions 24 -30

Income Gap Analysis If i 5% GAP = RSA RSL = $55 m $43 m = $12 million Income = GAP i = $12 m 5% = $0. 6 million ACF 104 Financial Institutions 24 -31

Duration Gap Analysis If i 5% DURgap = = = DURa [L/A DURl] 1. 16 [90/100 2. 77] 1. 33 years % NW = = = DURgap X i /(1 + i) ( 1. 33) . 05/(1 +. 10). 061, or 6. 1% ACF 104 Financial Institutions 24 -32

Managing Interest-Rate Risk • Problems with GAP Analysis – Assumes slope of yield curve unchanged and flat – Manager estimates % of fixed rate assets and liabilities that are rate sensitive ACF 104 Financial Institutions 24 -33

Managing Interest-Rate Risk • Strategies for Managing Interest-Rate Risk – In example above, shorten duration of bank assets or lengthen duration of bank liabilities – To completely immunize net worth from interest-rate risk, set DURgap = 0 Reduce DURa = 0. 98 DURgap = 0. 98 [(95/100) 1. 03] = 0 Raise DURl = 2. 80 DURgap = 2. 7 [(95/100) 2. 80] = 0 ACF 104 Financial Institutions 24 -34

Chapter Summary • Managing Credit Risk: basic techniques for managing relationships and rationing credit were reviewed. • Managing Interest-Rate Risk: the essential techniques of measuring interest-rate risk for both income and capital affects were presented. ACF 104 Financial Institutions 24 -35