Learning by testing Case study Turning Point Project

Learning by testing: Case study Turning Point Project Peter Neyroud, Institute of Criminology, University of Cambridge

Overview of Turning Point outline Learning from testing: 5 innovative approaches Lessons so far

Operation Turning Point Overview Hypothesis is that police can prevent crime by a combined treatment Holding a prosecution over the offender (Deterrence) Agreeing a contract to support the offender to stop offending (Desistance) But insisting on compliance in return for nonprosecution (Deterrence) Treatment is a deferred prosecution with conditions, targeted at the 60+% of offenders who can be assessed as a “low risk of serious harm”’ Method is an Randomised Controlled Trial 3

Operation ‘Turning Point’ Sample: offenders whom the police have decided to prosecute, who are: • Low risk offenders • • Who have no previous conviction (they may have previous cautions or other diversions) • or one prior conviction (more than 5 years ago if an adult and 2 years ago if juvenile). • And offence is not likely to result in instant prison sentence Randomly assigning them to prosecution or police offender management • Developing and testing a standard protocol of tactics for police offender management •

The Turning Point Experiment Sample of offenders whom the police have decided to prosecute. Random assignment Prosecution Turning Point Comparing like with like: Measure reoffending, cost, victim satisfaction

Turning Point Phases Phase 1 – Court only 10 Phase 2 – TPP only 55 204 Phase 3 – Randomised: Low Treatment as Assigned Phase 4 – Randomised: High Treatment as Assigned 424

Turning Point: a complex RCT A lot of “moving parts” are inevitable in a pipeline experiment testing treatments for offenders Data is complex, processes are complex and journey is extended and bumpy This type of experiment requires: Embedded researcher model Academic-Police partnership A “coalition” of effort

Final sample Adult (337) Juvenile (87) Personal Victim (260) 200 60 No Personal Victim (164) 137 27

Turning Point Conditions � Restoration/Reparation 65% � � Compensation 40% � Community Payback 36% � Letter of Apology 20% � Rehabilitation 58% � � � � SMART Team 36% Employment 16% Mental Health 11% Housing 5% Anger management 2% Debt 2% Drug Search 2% Desistance Movement Constraint 33% � Exclusion Zone 27% � Not to Contact Victim 15% � Requirement to comply with contract and stop offending under threat of prosecution Deterrence

Learning by testing: 4 Innovations Algorithmic policing Practitioner Randomization Guided Discretion Victims team and the victim’s script

Innovation No 1: Algorithmic policing Using a computer based triage algorithm to guide discretion Cambridge Gateway has been developed to be a triage tool to sort offenders suitable for Turning Point Treatment. 17000+ cases to be analysed Question 14/17 allows analysis of discretion decisions

Question 17:

Academic-Police partnership Gateway designed by research team Piloted in custody Revised by Custody Officers Reviewed by Prosecutors Tested in 2 Stages Revised by Research team and Police project team Before final Stage 4

Innovation No 2: Practitioner randomisation Cambridge Gateway has been expanded to be a user tool for randomisation Advantages: practitioners owning the randomisation process Disadvantages: maintaining consistency Advantages: ownership by practitioners

Innovation No. 3: Guided Discretion Finding a “professional” balance between two traditional models of discretion and control: Field discretion fettered only by principles and training Standing Operating procedure model in which discretion is fettered by detailed procedures

Decision-Making: A Third Way Question 17, Portal, LS-CMI Supported Decision. Making Officer Discretion Prescribed Decision. Making

Early Rehabilitative Conditions 40% of cases 3 for 3 (n=155) 100% 90% 80% 70% 81% 93% 86% 65% 60% 50% 40% 88%85% 47% 50% 39% 30% 20% 10% 0% PERIOD 1 Discretion Only PERIOD 2 + Training PERIOD 3 + Recommended Conditions Action Means Quantity

Professional Decision Support IT

Innovation No 4: The Victims team Experimenting with how to overcome the service gap between organisational intent and victim experience Using the lessons from Restorative Justice research To create a ‘victim’s script’ to engage and encourage participation Training a small cadre of officers to deliver Testing with an RCT within an RCT.

Turning Point: learning to test � Using Turning Point as a field case study of learning by testing � Interviewing a sample of the officers taking part

Relationship with researchers Force priority Leadership Police Science Education Professional Skills Practitioner Peer group