LEAP Longrange Energy Alternatives Planning System Charlie Heaps

LEAP Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System Charlie Heaps Stockholm Environment Institute-Boston/ Tellus Institute www. seib. org/leap@tellus. org April 2003

Highlights · Integrated energy-environment, scenario-based modeling system. · User-friendly data entry, scenario management and reporting tools. · Scope: demand, supply, resources, environmental loadings (emissions), cost-benefit analysis, non-energy sector emissions. · Methodology: Physical accounting of energy. Also spreadsheetlike expressions, for econometric and simulation modeling. · Time-Frame: medium to long-term, annual time-step, unlimited number of years. · Data requirements: low initial data requirements. Many aspects optional. Start-out simple and add detail later. · Geographic Applicability: local, national, regional.

What Can You Do With LEAP? – – – Energy outlooks (forecasting) Energy balances and environmental inventories. Integrated resource planning. Greenhouse gas mitigation analysis. Strategic analyses of sustainable energy futures.

Scope l Energy Demand – – – l Energy Conversion (Transformation) – – – l – Resource requirements, production, sufficiency, imports and exports. Optional land-area based accounting for biomass and renewable resources. Costs – l Simulation of any energy conversion and transportation sector (e. g. , electric generation, transmission & distribution, oil refining, charcoal making, coal mining, oil extraction, ethanol production, hydrogen production, etc. ) Choice of simulations for dispatch of processes (e. g. simple shares or merit-order dispatch to a loadduration curve). Exogenous and/or endogenous modeling of capacity expansion. Energy Resources – l Choice of methodologies: from top-down econometric to bottom-up end-use analysis. Flexible hierarchical data structures. Basic methodology: energy = activity level x energy intensity. Final or Useful energy intensities. Special features for modeling transport sector energy and emissions. Capital, fixed and variable O&M, fuel, environmental externalities. Environment – – – Emissions and direct impacts of energy system. Database includes emission factors for 100 s of technologies (including all IPCC factors) Non-energy sector sources and sinks.

Selected Applications

Selected Applications l l l Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Studies: Argentina, Bolivia, Cambodia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Lebanon, Mali, Mongolia, Korea, Senegal, Tanzania, Vietnam and many others. Energy and Carbon Scenarios: Chinese Energy Research Institute (ERI) and U. S. National Labs. Envisioning a Hydrogen Economy in 7 U. S. Cities: Tellus Institute/NREL. U. S. Light Duty Vehicle Energy Use and Emissions: for U. S. transportation NGOs. Multi-stakeholder Greenhouse Gas Action Plan: Rhode Island State Government, USA. APERC Energy Outlook: Energy forecasts for each APEC economy. East Asia Energy Futures Project: Study of energy security issues in East Asian countries including the Koreas, China, Mongolia, Russia, Japan. Rural Wood Energy Planning in South Asia: FAO-RWEDP. Integrated Resource Planning: Malaysia, Indonesia, Ghana. Integrated Transportation Studies: Texas (Tellus) and 7 Asian Cities (AIT). Sulfur Abatement Scenarios for China: Chinese EPA/UNEP. Global Energy Studies; Tellus Institute & Greenpeace.

Demand Modeling Methodologies 1. Final Energy Analysis: e = a i – – Where e=energy demand, a=activity level, i=final energy intensity (energy consumed per unit of activity) Example: energy demand in the cement industry can be projected based on tons of cement produced and energy used per ton. Each can change in the future. 2. Useful Energy Analysis: e = a (u / n) – – Where u=useful energy intensity, n = efficiency Example: energy demand in buildings will change in future as more buildings are constructed [+a]; incomes increase and so people heat and cool buildings more [+u]; or building insulation improves [-u]; or as people switch from less efficient oil boilers to electricity or natural gas [+n].

A Simple Demand Data Structure

Transformation Modules

Social Cost-Benefit Analysis in LEAP · · · Societal perspective of costs and benefits (i. e. economic not financial analysis). Avoids double-counting by drawing consistent boundary around analysis (e. g. whole system including. Cost-benefit analysis calculates the Net Present Value (NPV) of the differences in costs between two scenarios. NPV sums all costs in all years of the study discounted to a common base year. Optionally includes externality costs.

Simple Example of Cost-Benefit Analysis Two scenarios for meeting future growth in electricity lighting demand: 1. Base Case – – 2. Demand: future demand met by cheap incandescent bulbs. Transformation: growth in demand met by new fossil fired generating capacity. Alternative Case – – Demand: DSM programs increase the penetration of efficient (but more expensive) fluorescent lighting. Transformation: Slower growth in electricity consumption and investments to reduce transmission & distribution losses mean that less generating capacity is required.

Simple Cost-Benefit Analysis (cont. ) l l The Alternative Case… …uses more expensive (but longer lived) lightbulbs. l l …requires extra capital and O&M investment in the electricity transmission & distribution system. l l Result: net benefit …requires less fossil fuel resources to be produced or imported. l l Result: net cost . . requires less generating plants to be constructed (less capital and O&M costs). l l Result: depends on costs, lifetimes, & discount rate. Result: net benefit …produces less emissions (less fuel combustion). l Result: net benefit (may not be valued)

TED: The Technology and Environmental Database

Typical Data Requirements

. . Compared to DOS Version of LEAP l l l l Windows-based tool. Visual editing of data (tree and RES diagram). Flexible data structures. Wider choice of methodologies including useful energy analysis and transport stock turnover. Spreadsheet-like expressions allow simulation and econometric modeling techniques to be used within overall accounting framework. User-friendly reporting capabilities. Import/export to Excel/Word. Internet enabled for updates and technical support.

Forthcoming… l l New data being developed for TED. Improvements to TED to allow for easier updating of data. Limited Optimization. Software translations: French, Spanish, Chinese.

Minimum Hardware/Software Requirements l l l Windows 98 or later 400 Mhz Pentium PC 64 MB RAM Internet Explorer 4. 0 or later Optional: Internet connection, Microsoft Office

Status and Dissemination l l l Available at no charge to non-profit, academic and governmental institutions based in developing countries. Download from http: //www. seib. org/leap or on CD distributed at this meeting. Technical support from leap@tellus. org User name and password required to fully enable software. Available on completion of license agreement. Most users will need training: available through SEIBoston or regional partner organizations. Check LEAP web site for news of training workshops.

View Bar l Analysis View: where you create data structures, enter data, and construct models and scenarios. l Results View: where you examine the outcomes of scenarios as charts and tables. l Diagram View: “Reference Energy System” diagram showing flows of energy in the area. l Energy Balance: standard table showing energy production/consumption in a particular year. l Summary View: cost-benefit comparisons of scenarios and other customized tabular reports. l Overviews: where you group together multiple “favorite” charts for presentation purposes. l TED: Technology and Environmental Database – technology characteristics, costs, and environmental impacts of apx. 1000 energy technologies. l Notes: where you document and reference your data and models.