Lawrence Stringer East Sussex County Council TRICS Passby

Lawrence Stringer, East Sussex County Council TRICS Pass-by & Diverted Trips Research

Why did we start this research? Existing research data The TRICS Research Report 95/2 “Pass-By and Diverted Trips: A Resume” Good research but 1995 Often used, sometimes rejected Things have changed Investigate the impact and assessment methodology for pass-by and diverted trips

Methodology Stage 1 - Information Analysis Literature Review UK National Policy Travel Behaviour & Trends Commercial Research Academic Research International Research Analysis of TRICS data Stage 2 - Individual Surveys Peer Review

Policy Guidance Department for Transport: Guidance on Transport Assessment (2007) Tf. L: Transport Assessment Best Practice Guidance Document (2010) Auckland Regional Transport Authority: Integrated Transport Assessment Guidelines & Supplementary Documents (2007) National Planning Policy Framework (2012) ITE Trip Generation Manual, 9 th Edition (2012)

Travel Trends & Behaviours National Travel Survey Distance travelled by car decreasing Shopping trips account for one fifth of all trips Number of shopping trips person per year has decreased year on year between 1995 and 2012 London Travel Demand Survey Online Shopping Trends

Travel Trends & Behaviours Online Shopping UK online grocery market represents approximately 4. 5% of the total grocery market. Kantar Media, 2012

Travel Trends & Behaviours Online Shopping Online grocery shopping increasing by 18. 7% over the past 12 months 22% of households shopped online for groceries over the past 12 months Click and Collect Tesco & Asda Chronodrive Rapidly growing market

Commercial Research Somerfield: Shopping Trip Survey (1996) Somerfield, 1996

Commercial Research Tesco Survey: Shopping Centres Research – Linked Trips Information, 2001 Table 4. 1 Linked Trips 1. Tesco Stores Ltd, 2001 Store % Respondents Visit shop before Tesco only Visit shop after Tesco only Visit shop before and after Tesco Total visiting another shop Basingstoke 27 18 5 50 Coventry 34 12 3 49 Milton Keynes 25 8 1 34 Peterborough 40 6 8 54 Stevenage 46 12 8 64 Surrey Quays 38 7 8 53 Average 33 11 5 49

Academic Research Harries et al. (2012) Trip Generation Characteristics of Large-Format Retail Development Sites in Auckland High proportion of secondary (pass-by and diverted) trips exist, being in the range of 57 -67%. Ghezawi et al. (1998) Convenience Store Trip Generation average percentage of pass-by trips recorded was 72%, relationship between pass-by trip percentage and adjacent street volumes Mouchel (2009) Proposed Tesco Store & Shopping Centre, West Bromwich: Working Paper 3 – Linked Trips pass-by level 40% considered robust estimate during weekday PM peak

Academic Research Mac. Iver, A. (1999) Transportation Impact Assessment: Forecasting Travel Demand General rules for the proportions of pass-by trips at superstore developments in the UK: Superstores on major commuting routes in larger urban areas - 25 -35%; Less commuting routes, in out-of-town locations and in urban areas with smaller populations - 15 to 25%; In town centres and on non-primary routes the proportion - 10%; and In locations with little propensity to generate pass-by trips the proportion can be as low as 5%.

Analysis of TRICS data 88 sites from TRICS Database 5 Location Types: Town Centre Edge of Town Centre Suburban (A) Suburban (B) Edge of Town Surveys from 2000 onwards only Mixture of Friday and Saturday surveys

Analysis of TRICS data GFA & Location Type No correlation Figure 7. 1 GFA by Location 8000 7000 Average GFA (sqm) 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Town Centre Edge of Town Centre Suburban (A) Suburban (B) Edge of Town

Analysis of TRICS Data Proximity to major shopping types A correlation exists to nearest commercial area 9 Proximity to Area Type (km) 8 7 6 Residential 5 Commercial 4 Competition SRN 3 2 1 0 Town Centre Edge of Town Centre Suburban (A) Suburban (B) Edge of Town

Analysis of TRICS Data Trip rates Weekday and weekend daily period (07: 00 -19: 00) trip rate increases as distance from town centre increases Peak hour spreading 1600 – 1900 Location Type 07: 00 -19: 00 08: 00 -09: 00 16: 00 -17: 00 -18: 00 -19: 00 Town Centre 71. 573 5. 452 7. 260 7. 423 6. 186 Edge of Town Centre 95. 317 4. 018 10. 808 11. 001 11. 287 Suburban Area (A) 111. 585 2. 661 11. 066 11. 621 11. 251 Suburban Area (B) 121. 428 4. 845 11. 552 12. 104 12. 654 Edge of Town 134. 059 5. 402 13. 104 14. 271 12. 392 TRICS Average 116. 983 7. 134 11. 632 12. 334 11. 639

Analysis of TRICS Data Weekday daily period trip rate increases as distance from town centre increases 140 Daily Trip Rate (07: 00 -19: 00) 130 120 110 100 90 Town Centre Edge of Town Centre Suburban (A) Suburban (B) Edge of Town

Analysis of TRICS data Facilities 12 types of facilities considered. As GFA increases, the facilities provided within the store expands. 14000 12000 10000 GFA (sqm) 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 No. of Facilities 6 7 8 9 10

Analysis of TRICS data Facilities against Location Type Range of facilities on offer increases as distance from the town centre increases 8 Average No of Facilities 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Town Centre Intermediates Location Type Edge of Town

Analysis of TRICS data GFA & Population 4+ facilities = comparison stores, less than 4 facilities = convenience stores. No observable correlation between population per 1, 000 m 2 GFA and GFA, location type, proximity to major area types or type of facilities provided. As GFA drops below 3, 000 m 2, population per 1, 000 m 2 GFA also decreases

Key conclusions from Stage 1 Literature Review Lack of direction on how prevalence of pass-by and diverted trips should be addressed. Methodologies to assess these trips not provided in many policy guidelines. Commercial research has brought contradictory results Propensity for store customers to visit other shops within a town centre. Shopping habits are changing rapidly, especially online retail shopping and click and collect services. UK online grocery market represents approximately 4. 5% of the total grocery market; increasing annually. Online shopping trends and click and collect services to be considered in determining trip rates and trip type proportions.

Key conclusions from Stage 1 TRICS Data Review 88 sites Correlation between location type and proximity to the nearest commercial area Friday peak period for store activity 1600 to 1900 Saturday peak period 100 to 1200 Trip rate increases as distance from town centre increases No correlation between GFA and daily trip rate. No observable correlation between population per 1, 000 m 2 GFA and GFA, location type, proximity to nearest competition, proximity to nearest residential area or commercial area of type of facilities provided.

Key points for Stage 2 Store location type is most important factor for consideration. TRICS data review shows population and GFA to be less important factors. Surveys to focus on the two ends of the scale – town centre and edge of town sites. Six surveys at each location type. Surveys to investigate the facilities on offer in each store and whether these are a point of influence in trip choice. Surveys at click and collect locations to be undertaken.

Peer Review Group Graham Scholefield, University of Salford Martin Rogers, Dublin Institute of Technology Andrew Mac. Iver, Napier University Edinburgh Dilum Dissanayake, University of Newcastle Rachel Aldred, University of Westminster Gordon Stokes, University of Oxford Andrew Murdoch, TPP Consulting Richard Sweet, PB Consultants Melvyn Dresner, Transport for London Stuart Wilson, Transport Scotland

Points for Discussion Survey Categories Town Centre Edge of Town Number of Surveys Questions for inclusion in survey interviews Online shopping trends influencing overall store trip rates