Large Truck Crash Risk Causation Prevention Ronald R

Large Truck Crash Risk, Causation, & Prevention Ronald R. Knipling, Ph. D. Safety Consultant & Trainer Arlington, Virginia, USA rknipling@verizon. net www. safetyforthelonghaul. com IRU Academy FADEEAC International Conference Buenos Aires, Argentina -- April 5, 2011

Today’s Topics • Crash risk – High-risk drivers – High-risk road conditions • Proximal (immediate) crash causes • The “Crash Trifecta” • Driver & management training • Vehicle-based safety technologies • Active carrier safety management.

Multiple Interacting Factors & Causes

Crash Risk Factors • Risk Factors: – Driver: • Enduring • Temporary – Vehicle – Roadway/Environment • Proximal Causes: – Driver – Vehicle – Roadway/Environmental

Crash Risk Factors Driver Factors: Other Factors: Enduring driver traits; e. g. , Vehicle deficiencies; e. g. , • Age • Personality (e. g. , aggressive, impulsive) • Risk perception & attitudes • Medical conditions Temporary driver states; e. g. , • • Prior sleep Circadian rhythms Moods Medications & drugs • Brakes • Tires • Lighting Roadway; e. g. , • Undivided roads • Dense traffic • Curves

Naturalistic Driving (Instrumented Vehicle) Study Near-Crash [Naturalistic Driving Video Clip]

Truck Naturalistic Driving Data on At-Fault Traffic Conflicts of 95 Drivers Driver Risk Frequency Distribution Number of Drivers (N = 95) 60 Skewed Distribution: Many good drivers but a few bad & very bad drivers 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 0. 1 to 3 3. 1 to 6 6. 1 to 9 9. 1 to 12 At-Fault Traffic Conflicts Per 100 Hours Driving 12+

High- & Low-Risk CMV Drivers Risk Odds Ratio = 4. 9

Safety Manager Survey Results: Driver Factors Associated with Risk 1. Aggressive/angry Personality & 2. Impatient/impulsive Risk Attitudes 3. Inattentive 4. Inexperienced (new driver) 5. Unhappy with job/company 6. Young (< 25) 7. Sleep disorder; e. g. , sleep apnea 8. Unhappy marriage/family 9. Debt/financial problems 10. Medical condition; e. g. , heart

Multiple Interacting Factors & Causes

Relative Exposure & Risk: Undivided & Divided Highways Undivided 10% 38% Divided 90% 62% Odds ratio = 5. 3 Exposure Traffic Conflicts Other high-risk roadway conditions include dense traffic & work zones

High-Risk Road Locations & Conditions • Single-vehicle crashes: – Narrow roads – Curves – Ramps • Multi-vehicle crashes: – Undivided roads – Heavy traffic – Work zones: • ~13% of serious crashes • <1% of driving exposure • Risk increase > 20 X

Large Truck Crash Causation Study (LTCCS) Percentages for Truck At-Fault Crashes CR Category Examples Driver Physical Failure • Asleep-at-the-wheel • Heart attack • Other physical impairment 12% Driver Recognition Failure • Inattention • Distraction (internal or external) • “Looked but did not see” 30% Driver Decision Error • Too fast for conditions • Following too closely • Misjudgment or false assumption 40% Driver Response Execution Error • Overcompensation • Poor vehicle control/maneuvering • Panic/freezing 6% Vehicle Failure • Brake failure • Tire failure • Cargo shift Roadway/ Environment • Road signs/signals missing • Road design • Weather and/or slick roads DRIVER ERROR = 88%!!! % 10% 2%

Convergence of Events Causing Crashes Adapted from Reason (1990) and Short et al. (2007).

Crash “Tri-Fecta” Frequently Seen in Crashes & Near-Crashes 1. Misbehavior: Unsafe pre-event behavior 2. Mistake: Transient driver inattention 3. Unexpected traffic event.

Crash Example [Naturalistic Driving Video Clip]

Collision Warning Systems • Forward Collision Warning (with Adaptive Cruise Control) • Side Object Detection (Lane Change/Merge Warnings) • Lane Departure Warning • Backing Collision Warning (Rear-Object Detection) Courtesy Iteris, Inc. 17

IVBSS Collision Warning Systems; e. g. , Side Object, Forward, & Lane Departure Integrated Vehicle-Based Safety System (IVBSS) Truck Configuration

Large Truck Safety Technologies: Estimated Returns On Investments (ROIs)* Vehicle-Based Crash Avoidance System Estimated 5 -Year ROI per $1. 00 Forward Collision Warning $4. 28 Lane Departure Warning $3. 96 Roll Stability Control $5. 51 * FMCSA Benefit-Cost Analysis of Onboard Safety Systems. Tech Brief No. FMCSA-RRT-09 -023 based on ATRI research. February 2009. 19

Carrier safety manager: the most important person in truck safety! • • Driver selection Training Evaluation Behavioral management: – Rewards – Discipline & remediation • Vehicle technologies & maintenance • Risk avoidance; e. g. , dispatching & routing.

Safety Management: Comprehensive and Targeted Principal Target for Improved Safety

KSA (Knowledge, Skill, Attitude) 3 -Legged Stool: Basic Elements of Driver Behavior & Training Attitudes: (a)Hard to change (related to personality) (b)Often lead to worst crashes

Carrier Safety Manager Training & Development Safety Knowledge: Supervisory Skills: • • • • • Regulatory compliance Crash risk factors Crash causes Crash investigation Vehicle maintenance Safety technologies Driver selection Driver training Driver fatigue, scheduling & dispatching • Behavioral safety management. Planning Controlling Problem solving Monitoring performance Training & coaching Rewarding & disciplining Managing time Oral communication Written communication Self-development Representing company.

What motivates carrier safety? Safety Culture Study Carrier Survey Results 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Reduce crashes & injuries Set high industry safety standard Decrease insurance costs Avoid costly lawsuits Avoid enforcement penalties Attract & retain drivers Attract & retain customers. * Short, J. et al. Synthesis 14: The Role of Safety Culture in Preventing CMV Crashes. TRB Truck & Bus Synthesis Program, 2007.

The Business Model of Truck Safety Business Benefits of Safety: • • Reduced costs Improved productivity Enhanced quality Improved employee: – – Relations Morale Retention Off-the-job safety awareness • Better organizational image • Organizational pride.

Freight Revenue Needed to Compensate for Crash Loss Company Profit Margin: Crash Loss: 1% 3% 5% $1, 000 $100, 000 $33, 000 $20, 000 $25, 000 $2. 5 Million $833, 000 $500, 000 $1 Million $100 Million $33. 3 Million $20 Million

Compliance with Regulations PLUS Active “Beyond Compliance” Carrier Management

Safety for the Long Haul Large Truck Crash Risk, Causation, & Prevention • Publisher: ATA • 13 chapters encompassing: – – – Basic crash concepts Risk Causation Countermeasures Safety management National policy. • Target audiences: – Carrier safety managers – Government & industry officials – Students • Availability: www. atabusinesssolutions. com/

Thanks for your attention! Ron Knipling (703) 533 -2895 rknipling@verizon. net www. safetyforthelonghaul. com Website information & downloads: • Book overview & detailed outline • Training seminar information • Crash & risk analysis guide • Publications: – Safety management reports – Safety research – Articles on truck safety • Presentations.